tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-40893507932448945872024-02-20T09:36:15.622-06:00The Stealth GMwelhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04738304482603944090noreply@blogger.comBlogger1554125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4089350793244894587.post-35402803892145798162021-11-04T12:49:00.000-05:002021-11-04T12:49:00.625-05:00HARD BALL OFF SEASON<p>When the Braves won the World Series, baseball has less than a month left on its existing Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). The existing CBA expires on December 1st. There have been no reported movement between the players union and the league.</p><p>But there are still deadlines to meet.</p><p>Before December 1st, teams need to submit their qualifying offers to free agents to accept a one-year ($18.5 million contract) or hit full free agency (with a possible penalty to the new club in lost draft choice). </p><p>Before the contract expires, teams need to finalize their 40 man rosters and submit them to the league to hold players out of the December winter meetings Rule 5 draft.</p><p>Also, teams have to submit arbitration notices to eligible players or lose them to free agency.</p><p>Some teams may also be looking to their financials to get under the luxury cap as it affects their future draft and international money pools. </p><p>But all of those items are under the backdrop of uncertainty. No one knows what the next CBA will look like. The owners floated the idea of lowering the luxury tax (which is a default salary cap) which will be rejected by the players. The owners floated the idea of revenue sharing percentage with players, but players reject that notion because it does not include "all" income sources from affiliated enterprises such as parking, etc. The players will want to raise the minimum player salaries and stop GMs from manipulating service time so players free agency is held off an extra year. The union may want to reduce the years to get to free agency,which some owners will reject since that would adversely effect their bottom line. </p><p>Teams are using younger players which means those stars hit free agency faster. Teams have started to "buy out" arbitration years in sweetened rookie contracts, but those rising star players may hit free agency TWICE during their career which could be problematic down the road as MLB must see that overall revenues are at a plateau.</p><p>As the NFL gets greedier by making deals with streaming services for games, it is yet to be seen if fans will actually follow those kinds of broadcasts. Likewise, MLB has hinted that it wants to get out of its own broadcasting venture (MLB.com). Many teams, including the Cubs, have found running their own team channel/network not the huge profit center that cable provided with super-stations two decades ago. </p><p>It is probable that most teams will not make any big moves until there is a new CBA. Why commit to large payrolls or long term contracts if free agency is going to change or the unlimited payroll budgets could be significantly reduced to a hard cap?</p><p>The hard financial outlook will be the center of the tug of war. It is clear baseball is not growing revenues like it used to. MLB owners still want total control of their product (and profits) as it did in taking over the minor leagues. But there is only so much blood you can squeeze out of a turnip.<br /></p><p><br /></p>welhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04738304482603944090noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4089350793244894587.post-72687325886424930432021-10-06T06:00:00.023-05:002021-10-06T06:00:00.260-05:00DUBIOUS ACCOMPLISHMENT<p> The Cubs ended 2021 with many records. Bad records. </p><p>The Cubs used a record 69 different players. Forty-four (44) players made their ML debut with the Cubs, ten more than the previous team record set in 2013. The Cubs also used a record 9 catchers in one season.<br /></p><p>A host of scrambled letters went through the club house turn style: Tyler Payne, Joe Biagini, Erik Castillo, Trent Giambrone and Tyler Ladendorf made their footnotes in Cub history. None made a lasting impact or really part of any future plans.</p><p>It was an all-out fire drill sending rookie fire fighters after the forest had been burnt to the ground. </p><p>Of the Cubs Top 30 prospects, OF Brennan Davis and LHP Brailyn Marquez will be rushed into 2022 duty. If Willson Contreras is traded then C Miquel Amaya will take his place with a long learning curve ahead of him. The rest of the Top 10 have call up years in 2023 and beyond.</p><p>The Cubs will have the 7th pick in the next Draft. If the pattern holds, Hoyer will pick the best college bat available in hopes of moving the selection through the minors quickly. But the Cubs drafting record is more dubious than their team's collapse and fire sale.</p><p>Expect 2020 to be the journeymen tour of major and minor league career AAAA players getting a cup of coffee on the Cubs roster. Expect another 90 plus loss season. <br /></p><br /><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />welhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04738304482603944090noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4089350793244894587.post-21928127797685347902021-09-29T11:26:00.004-05:002021-09-29T11:26:58.318-05:00FREE AGENCY OR NOT<p>Jed Hoyer is about to start his first in-charge free agency as the baseball CEO of the Cubs. His first interviews will be for a new general manager. The Cubs have been operating without won since Hoyer was promoted when Theo Epstein left the club. It is not like having a GM would have made the Cubs 2021 fortunes any better. The orders were to sell and sell often. From the preseason Darvish salary dump to the late July fire sale, the Cubs were never going to be competitive or relevant. </p><p>Hoyer spoke recently to the media. He said the Cubs would be "really active" in free agency.</p><p>But that does not mean GOOD free agents will be coming to Chicago.</p><p>On the contrary, top free agents will see the Cubs as a play pen for 30 year old minor league journeymen. The minors have been void of creating quality players, especially starting pitchers. It seems the 2021 tank is the only plan the organization has put money back in the Ricketts bank accounts.</p><p>The Cubs are set to rocket down from $215 million payroll to small market $60 million in a matter of years. There is no rational belief that the owners are willing to spend anything on the Cubs after suffering alleged "biblical" losses during the pandemic. Those losses were surely bolstered by mismanagement, taking a cue from the strange season of broadcaster carousel in the Marquee booth. Is everyone now a 1099 freelance sportscaster?</p><p>The Cubs were so bad so often that it was hard to even root for them to fail because there is no hope for the future. Hoyer was head of scouting and the minor leagues which were floundering until he was promoted to GM instead of being fired. His resume contains 180 drafted pitchers with no quality starter being developed during his tenure. This year's parade of starting pitchers seemed like an improv audition for the fifth starter/long relievers: Steele, Thompson, Alzolay, Mills, and Sampson. With Hendricks performance slipping to a #3 or #4 starter, things do not look good for 2022.</p><p>Pundits may call for one or two free agent starters, but in reality you need four. And the Cubs are not going to pay for four aces, or four #2s. Top free agent starters like Robbie Ray (30), Max Scherzer (37), Noah Syndergaard (29), Marcus Stroman (30) or even often injured Carlos Rodon (29) are not coming to the North Side.</p><p>And neither are quality free agent position players. The nostalgia signing of Jake Arrieta was a bust. Bringing back Baez, Rizzo or Bryant seems like rubbing salt into the wounds of the lack of a promised dynasty of championships. The top stars are the free agent shortstops (with Baez probably ranking #6 in that list). Nico Hoerner is your 2022 shortstop with Nick Madrigal as the pivot man second baseman. Frank Schwindel has the same WAR as Rizzo so he is the probable first sacker. Third base is an open competition between Patrick Wisdom and David Bote. Willson Contreras is the starting catcher. The outfield is really the open sports, but Jason Heyward's contract makes him the default right fielder. Happ, Martini, Thompson or Ortega really are bench players masquerading as starting outfielders.</p><p>Basically, the 90 plus loss 2021 Cubs are going to be your 95 plus loss 2022 Cubs.<br /> </p><p><br /></p><br />welhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04738304482603944090noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4089350793244894587.post-62226320264377985152021-09-23T09:25:00.000-05:002021-09-23T09:25:05.808-05:00UNWATCHABLE<p> The summer of 2021 was the season of the unwatchable Cubs.</p><p>A bad team made of mostly old, journeyman AAA players. There has been no indication that will change in the off-season. David Ross, when asked about his 2022 starting rotation, could only say Hendricks and Mills.</p><p>Another indictment of the Cubs farm system for not developing one solid starter during the Theo era. But the problem is that Hendricks has been pitching like a #3 and Mills a #5 starter. An ace #1 starter is a pitcher who can give you a complete game. A #2 pitcher gets you into the 8th on a regular basis. A #3 starter gets you 7 innings; #4 6 innings and #5 through five. But Cub starters are barely reaching five innings pitched on a consistent basis. The young arms of Alzolay, Thompson and Steele seem like middle relievers at best (as Steve Stone said "all relievers are failed starters.")</p><p>The 2021 Cubs tried to sell nostalgia to the fans with the return of Arrieta but that was a bust from the get-go. The "lovable losers" train no longer runs after the Cubs won the championship. Fans expected more from their team for the prices they are currently paying. <br /></p><p>Are the Cubs going to spend big money for two free agent starters when they let Darvish go for next to nothing?</p><p>A closer by committee does solidify a modern pitching staff. Except for Heuer in the Sox trade, the rest of the arms are pretty much replacement level. The bullpen will be blown up again to be filled with new journeymen arms.</p><p>2022 is the last year of Ross' contract. I wonder if he will extend himself to shepherd a low budget rebuild. Or will he chance it that Theo will take a job with the imploding Mets franchise? </p><p>You can tell how screwed up the franchise is when you cannot even tell who are the daily TV and radio broadcasters. The revolving door of people in the booth is symbolic of the turn style of marginal talent on the field. <br /></p>welhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04738304482603944090noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4089350793244894587.post-64719943879210308342021-07-09T11:30:00.003-05:002021-07-09T11:30:53.434-05:00BACK UP THE MOVING VAN<p> The Cubs 11 game losing streak has changed the team's view of the playoffs and off-season programs.</p><p>The remaining core and recent additions are pending free agents: Bryant, Baez, Rizzo, Pedersen. Kimbrel and Contreras have one more year of potential control. </p><p>With the CBA expiring at the end of the season, there is great uncertainty on what will happen to the free agent market and whether the FA compensation rules will change. Currenty, only those who turn down the one-year qualifying offer from their clubs will have compensation attached to them. Those offers must be made by the club within the first five full days after the World Series ends, and players then have 10 days to accept or decline the offer, during which time they can negotiate with other teams<br /><br />Under the current rules, if the team that loses the free agent is a revenue-sharing recipient, based on its revenues and market size, then the selection -- if and only if the lost player signs for at least $50 million -- will be awarded a pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A of the 2019 MLB Draft. If the player signs for less than $50 million, the compensation pick for those teams would come after Competitive Balance Round B, which follows the second round.<br /><br />The following 16 teams currently qualify for these picks: A's, Braves, Brewers, D-backs, Indians, Mariners, Marlins, Orioles, Padres, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers and Twins.<br /><br />If the team that loses the player does not receive revenue sharing and did not exceed the luxury-tax salary threshold the previous season, its compensatory pick will come after Competitive Balance Round B. The value of the player's contract doesn't matter in this case. The 12 clubs that fall into this category are the Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Phillies, Rangers, White Sox and Yankees.</p><p>The Cubs have several options with their pending free agents:</p><p></p><p>1. Keep them through the season. Let the core group have a final swan song together. Then let me go on their merry way.<br /></p><p>2. Keep them through the season. Then offer them a qualifying offer (last year was $17.6 million) or even arbitration. If the player rejects the QO, then potential draft compensation may attach. If rejects arbitration, then no draft comp.</p><p>3. Try to negotiate an extension with the players. We have only heard crickets this season on any extension talk. With Ricketts claiming poverty and Hoyer trading his best starter in a clear salary dump, ownership has not signaled any willingness to commit large dollars to their old players.</p><p>4. Think about trades. If you think your scouting department can pick gems in compensatory rounds (picks from 48 to 100), then waiting to draft someone could be more valuable than trading a rental player for a low minor league prospect. Trading partners this year are highly unlikely to part with any of their Top 15-20 prospects for a two month rental player. Only if two or more teams fight over player will the value rise. </p><p>5. Have a fire sale. Try to squeeze as much value as you can from your current roster. Everybody has a chance to get on the moving van. Trade deadline contenders usually want closers, starters and specialty hitters/defenders to fill in bench role. Kimbrel probably has the most trade value because he has had a solid year. Contreras is probably the second most valuable trade chip. He has one more year of control and is a top NL catcher. A team like the White Sox could use him now. Hendricks has already signed a team friendly extension so I doubt he will be moved but he has as much value as Contreras. Bryant is purely a rental who will hit the FA market. His up and down little injuries year does not help. Unless a contender loses a middle of the line up bat, market interest may be thin for KB. Baez has less market value than Bryant. He is too inconsistent at the plate and lately in the field (14 errors). He has the personality and PR appeal that could help some clubs sell tickets but not at a great trade cost. Pedersen fits into the Schwarber mode (DH more than OF) which limits thinking to AL teams. </p><p>6. Let them test the free agent market, then negotiate a new deal in the wild. It is possible to try to reel back in one of your players. The Cubs did it with pitcher Hamel. But it is rare. And the Cubs would have to dramatically change its small market mind set. Also, free agents want a chance to win now and it is clear the Cubs do not have the organizational depth to field a championship caliber contender in the next few years.</p><p>If the Cubs stumble into the All Star break, the fire sale is the most likely option. But look at the Darvish trade as the bitter cough medicine fans will have to swallow. The Cubs received nothing of value in return and only one marginal major leaguer (Davies). At the trade deadline, I would expect only Class A ball players in return for any one except maybe Kimbrel or Contreras. But even then, most teams would rather see how the new CBA financial terms will be set before parting with any of their controllable (i.e. cheap) minor league players. Teams have learned their is more value in developing and promoting their draft choices to keep them for 7 years than trading away good prospects for an illusory chance at the pennant or World Series.</p><p>If I were to guess on who will be traded I think Kimbrel, Baez and Bryant are the candidates. I think the team will keep Rizzo to the end of the year because he is still the face of their franchise and the Cub house leader. I think the strong push to eliminate the 2016 team is apparent as the championship has been an actual anchor drag on the team as the players generally did not improve and scouting and operations departments failed to draft and develop their replacements. <br /><br /></p>welhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04738304482603944090noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4089350793244894587.post-11368292526041503762021-07-01T10:32:00.000-05:002021-07-01T10:32:17.172-05:00JUNE SWOON<p> In about a week, the Cubs went from first to 6 GB the Brewers.</p><p>It came after a historic combined no-hitter in LA.</p><p>It ended with a near historic blowing a 7 run first inning lead to get beaten 15-7 by the Brewers.</p><p>The excuses come easy to the optimists: the Cubs have had a rash of injuries (so have other clubs); the West Coast road trip took them out of their game (teams travel all the time); the pitchers are just coming back to their mean.</p><p>But angry fans on the sports radio shows complain that a series of unheard of minor league journeymen (below replacement player talent) shows that ownership is tanking the season. Tanking, so Jed Hoyer can sell off all the pending free agents to start a complete tear-down rebuild.</p><p>It is not surprising that the Cubs have fallen into a cesspool of mistrust. The Yu Darvish trade for basically nothing was clearly a salary dump. The irony is that the Cubs desperately needed a quality starter to be competitive in the winnable NL Central. Any hope of acquiring one at the trade deadline is zero.</p><p>It is also not surprising considering the Cubs failed to sign any player extensions in the off-season. Kyle Schwarber was let go (to go on to have a career year with the Nationals). Bryant, Baez and Rizzo have all sat on the contract sidelines, with Rizzo being insulted by the Cubs last offer.</p><p>It is not surprising considering Tom Ricketts complained loudly about the 2020 "biblical losses" sustained by the team (but most believe the red-ink blood bath was the real estate development losses).</p><p>The team has not developed a quality starter under the Epstein-Hoyer regime. Only one home grown prospect, Alzolay, has made more than one start - - - and is clearly a 5th starter at best. The pitching staff has been a patch work of other team cast offs or free agents, for good or ill. It is clear Jake Arrieta's tank is pretty empty.</p><p>The June Swoon gives management the argument that the season is lost . . . so a fire sale is in the best interests of the club. If the team does not trade its pending free agents, the current CBA allows for a Round 1A compensation pick. But no one knows what the new CBA will look like (which will freeze the free agent market this off-season). <br /></p>welhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04738304482603944090noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4089350793244894587.post-12512296970331177322021-05-19T06:33:00.004-05:002021-05-19T06:33:36.704-05:00LOSING THE CLUBHOUSE<p><span style="font-size: small;">Tony LaRussa is a fossilized dinosaur. His ideas about baseball are out of touch. His managing skills have been questioned all season. Some observers think his strategies and decisions have cost the White Sox at least three games this season. There were early rumors that many players in the clubhouse did not support LaRussa as their manager. Some think the players are winning in spite of LaRussa.<br />Things are coming to an ugly crossroads within the White Sox clubhouse.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"><br />The White Sox were routing the Twins, the preseason favorite to win the AL Central. The White Sox had built up a huge lead that in the late innings the Twins used an infielder as a relief pitcher.<br />On Monday night, Rookie Yermin Mercedes drove a 3-0 pitch from infielder William Astudillo deep to center in the ninth for a home run. White Sox manager La Russa said Mercedes made a mistake, and the Hall of Fame skipper apologized to the Twins. LaRussa publicly stated that Mercedes was "clueless" about the unwritten rule(s) of baseball and that he would be punished for violating that unwritten rule.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"><br />However, prior to the Mercedes home run, the Twins bench was laughing at the White Sox who Astudillo got two outs against. Starter Lance Lynn defended Mercedes after the game. He called the Twins "crybabies" in their reaction to Mercedes hitting a HR in the 9th. "There are no rules when you put a position player out to pitch," he said. "If (the Twins) had a problem with it, then put in a (real) pitcher."</span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"><br />In the next game, Mercedes was the center of attention once again Twins reliever Tyler Duffey was ejected for throwing behind Mercedes in the seventh. Duffey threw the first pitch of the at-bat behind the slugger's legs. Duffey and Twins manager Rocco Baldelli then were ejected by plate umpire Jim Reynolds.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"><br />"It wasn't obvious to me," La Russa said. "The guy threw a sinker. It didn't look good. So, I wasn't that suspicious. I'm suspicious if somebody throws at somebody's head. Then I'm suspicious. I don't have a problem with how the Twins handled that."</span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"><br />Of course, no one believes LaRussa. It was an intentional "show up" pitch by the Twins. The pitcher was throwing at Mercedes. But LaRussa refused to publicly defend his player.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"><br />Nothing can lose a clubhouse faster than a manager not defending or having the backs of his players. Clearly, LaRussa "clueless" about what is happening on the field. By not sticking up for his player TWICE in consecutive days for doing NOTHING wrong, LaRussa has shown that he is not capable of leading the team to the playoffs.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"><br />But LaRussa is going to stay. He was an owner hire not GM Rick Hahn's choice. Jerry Reinsdorf has for decades regretted terminating LaRussa as White Sox manager. So he brought him back when Hahn had constructed a very good, play-off caliber team. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"><br />When a team is fighting against significant injuries (the team has lost its entire starting outfield), a manager is supposed to support and rally the remaining players to battle. Instead, LaRussa was apologetic and weak. There were some commentators who thought before these incidents that LaRussa could be fired after the season. A few thought there was a remote chance he could be terminated during the season. But since the White Sox are still in first place (10.5 games ahead of the Twins), LaRussa's job is secure because he is Jerry's guy. And in the end Jerry calls the shots on the managerial position, even if it is detrimental to the team.<br /><br /></span><br /></p>welhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04738304482603944090noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4089350793244894587.post-70664998043430507452021-04-17T06:00:00.009-05:002021-04-17T06:00:00.207-05:00STOP THE NONSENSE<p> MLB is trying to right the sinking ship of offense by experimenting with more rule changes. We know Big Data is causing hitters to become free swingers and not contact hitters. But constant rule changes to try to increase scoring is bad for baseball.</p><p>Major League Baseball announced that it will experiment with a
pair of new rules during the 2021 Atlantic League season: a
“double-hook” implementation of the designated hitter and moving the
pitching rubber back one foot. MLB and the Atlantic League began a
partnership back in 2019 wherein the latter would serve as a testing
ground for rule changes and pace-of-play alterations.</p>
<p>The “double-hook” designated hitter rule will be in place for the
entirety of the 2021 Atlantic League season. Under the new rule, a team
will lose its designated hitter once the starting pitcher is pulled from
the game. From that point forth, the team will need to either deploy a
pinch-hitter or allow a relief pitcher to bat in what was the designated
hitter’s place.</p>
<p>The goal of the rule, per the league, is to “incentivize teams to
leave their starting pitchers in longer, increase the value of starters
who can work deeper into games and increase the strategic element in the
late innings of a game.”</p>
<p>Turning to the pitching rubber experiment, that change will only be
implemented in the second half of the Atlantic League season. (The
first-half data will then be compared to second-half data as a direct
point of comparison.) MLB’s release notes that the average fastball
velocity has risen from 91.6 mph in 2010 to 93.3 mph in 2021. The league
posits that a hitter’s reaction time on a 93.3 mph pitch thrown from 61
feet, six inches is approximately the same as the reaction time on a
91.6 mph pitch thrown from 60 feet, six inches.</p><p>Trying to use statistics to prove your case will not work here. These rule changes will only HURT pitchers. Pitchers moving back a foot will throw off all the mechanics and location control they have learned their entire careers. Moving back the rubber will mean some pitchers will throw harder in order to keep their velocity level at the plate. That will lead to more arm and shoulder injuries. </p><p>The double-hook DH rule is worse than the regular DH rule. You penalize the team for taking out a starting pitcher, but you are really penalizing a pitcher by keeping him on the mound longer than he can physically go. Again, if a pitcher is struggling and needs to be pulled but you lose a valuable bat in the process, what is a manager to do? Keep a pitcher out their to hurt themselves mentally or physically? Besides, the whole DH rule was to stop pitchers getting hurt at the plate (HBP) or running the bases. Now, you want to have those issues thrown at relief pitchers? And where is a manager to get all those pinch hitters when rosters are so tight?</p><p>And these rule changes do nothing to improve the game. Like the runner on second in extra innings, it is more a distraction than valid solution. If you want offense, team should look at the Dodgers who are tearing up the league. If you want offense, teach your hitters how to hit instead of swinging at the fences in a "home run or bust" mentality. Tell your players that a strike out is a bad thing that can get you benched instead of being "just another out." <br /></p><p> <br /></p>welhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04738304482603944090noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4089350793244894587.post-12688411343404703082021-04-10T07:35:00.002-05:002021-04-10T07:35:42.657-05:00THE REASONS<p> It finally hit me. The reasons why the game of baseball is in decline.</p><p>Teams have special coaches, labs, and stat sheets on each player. Baseball has attempted to squeeze the game into a series of numbers.</p><p>Teams can use methods to strengthen a pitcher's arm, to increase the velocity of pitches and to increase the amount of spin on the ball. But they do not teach how to pitch at the pro level.</p><p>Teams can measure bat speed, exit velocity and launch angles for hitters. But they do not teach how to make contact, how to hit in situations or how to advance runners. </p><p>Teams have done little to increase techniques in fielding. Teams have given up on teaching base running skills. Those are lost skill sets.</p><p>Baseball is a rare sport where the defense starts the action of each play. One would think it would be an advantage to improve your defense in order to win more games. </p><p>The analytical side of baseball is driving the sport towards extinction. Players get paid because of their stats. Teams allegedly win because they use stats, the probabilities, on each play. Teams use the shift because of the stats of a hitter's spray chart. And batters keep grounding into the shift because they refuse to hit to the opposite field because their stats say power is in the pull field.</p><p>Early this season, the Cubs bemoaned the fact that a team of good hitters could not string two hits in a row. The experts and talking heads were at a loss on why. The reason is simple: the Cubs lack any .300 hitters. Contact hitters who can get on base. To put pressure on the opposing pitcher and defense. The Cubs have had no .300 hitter in the regular line up for years. It is a glaring hole in the line up but in the analytical world, batting average is a relic from the past. Strike outs are not cursed anymore because home runs are viewed as the most efficient scoring device. So the Cubs have a philosophy of home run swing or bust. And bust it is most of the time. </p><p>Baseball is an ebb of flow of action and pauses. The pauses give fans an opportunity to digest the situation, the strategy and react. The drama, the contact of the bat to the ball, happens in a blink of an eye, as players scatter around the field in a century old ballet of roles. But the tenor of the sport now mirrors a video game, a series of computer coded numbers and very few different outcomes.</p><p>Baseball has always been about numbers. Sacred numbers. But numbers are leading it to its downfall.<br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>welhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04738304482603944090noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4089350793244894587.post-29835659995748576402021-03-19T05:30:00.052-05:002021-03-19T05:30:03.217-05:00THE URGENCY OF HURLING<p> New team President Jed Hoyer spoke to NBC Chicago Sports. </p><p>“When
you talk about urgency of this team, and it’s been stated,” team
president Hoyer said, referencing a roster full of players on the one-year contracts. “We need
to play well out of the gate. That doesn’t mean we have to play well
the first two weeks. But when you think about the first half of the
season, we need to put ourselves in position to be a buyer, to be a team
that’s competing. </p><p>"That’s
probably a slightly different feeling than you might have had two or
three years ago when all these guys are [are much further from free
agency],” said Hoyer, who’s optimistic he’ll have a lot of payroll
flexibility in July, depending on attendance allowances as COVID-19
restrictions presumably are lifted gradually into the summer. </p><p>There is no way around the Truth: this is the last season for "The Core," the foundation players who won the championship. It really is the last gasp for the Cubs to try to win another championship before sinking in the total rebuild muck.</p><p>But this talk makes some fans hurl. The Yu Darvish trade was an early White Flag deal in which the Cubs could never recover. Marquee not showing live Cub spring training games is a cheap farce in a year public relations is needed to bring back fans to baseball.</p><p>The urgency to sign pitchers like Shelby Miller and Jake Arrieta past their primes is an indication of the one-and-done front office mentality. The starting rotation is a mess. The bullpen is also a mess. The farm system is a disaster. </p><p>The only bright side is that most of the NL Central had their own talent fire sales due to financial pressures from 2020. Only the Cardinals made a splash to become the front runner in a weak division. The Cubs 2021 plan is hoping other teams stumble and their old veterans somehow find some magic to outperform expectations. Expectations that are very low. <br /></p><p>With as many as 18 players on the Cubs’ projected 26-man
Opening Day roster are players expected to be in walk years (either free
agents at the end of the year or facing club-option decisions for
2022), the do-or-die mentality seems to be not there. There is such little local media coverage one wonders if the pandemic has sapped all interest in the team.</p><p>One can see now why Theo Epstein bailed on his last contract year to not oversee this pending dumpster fire. With ownership claiming biblical losses (of their own bad business practices), the Cubs are no longer the lovable losers but a failed dynasty. The team lacks an identity. It also lacks talent. It woefully lacks depth. 2021 is shaping up as a season to forget before it starts.<br /></p>welhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04738304482603944090noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4089350793244894587.post-82305792359130797572021-03-03T05:00:00.039-06:002021-03-03T05:00:00.266-06:00ANOTHER LISTLESS SPRING<p> The Cubs start another season with very little competition for roster spots.</p><p>The Cubs went into the winter hibernation in early fire sale mode. The Yu Darvish salary dump and the owners cry of "biblical losses" due to the pandemic were not greatly received by Cub fans. The Atlanta Braves, the only publicly held team, reported a 2020 operating loss of $54 million. The league claims $2.8 billion in losses (if Braves are average team, the league claim is double). </p><p>A round of journeymen signings leads the Cubs who are really on the last year of the championship core window (which has effectively closed). Bringing back Jake Arrieta after two below average years is not a solution to a rotation that lost 4/5ths of last year's opening day starters. </p><p>Barring any injury, this appears to be your Opening Day roster:</p><p><br />Starting Rotation: Hendricks, Davies, Arrieta, Mills, Williams</p><p>Catchers: Contreras, Romine</p><p>Infielders: Rizzo (1b), Hoerner (2b/ss), Bote (2b/3b), Baex (ss), Bryant (3b)</p><p>Outfielders: Happ, Heyward, Pederson, Marisnick</p><p>Bullpen: Kimbrel (closer), Workman, Winkler, Ryan, Wick, Wieck, Chafin, Tempera, Alzolay</p><p>Not a dominating team with any real depth.</p><p>The bullpen is basically last year's hit and miss crew. Kimbrel is still the closer by default since Jeffries left for free agency. Out of the mix are two of last year's spot starters: Alzolay and Rea.</p><p>The only bright spot is that only the Cardinals seemed to have attempted to improve their roster with the Arenaldo trade. The rest of the division have been salary cutting veterans. But it will be another long 2020 type season as the pandemic starts its fourth wave right around Opening Day.<br /></p><p><br /></p>welhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04738304482603944090noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4089350793244894587.post-6936216956018498692021-01-04T05:30:00.023-06:002021-01-04T05:30:05.248-06:00UP THE DOWN GRADE<p> Let us look at the Cubs current major league roster depth chart:</p><p>LF: Open </p><p>CF: Happ</p><p>RF: Heyward</p><p>3B: Bryant</p><p>SS: Baez</p><p>2B: Hoerner</p><p>1B: Rizzo</p><p>C: Contreras</p><p>SP1: Hendricks</p><p>SP2: Davies</p><p>SP3: Mills</p><p>SP4: Open</p><p>SP5: Open</p><p>Closer: Kimbrel <br /></p><p>Bryant, Baez and Rizzo will be free agents after 2021.</p><p>Heyward and Kimbrel are untradeable due to their dead money contracts.</p><p>Even if you move Bryant to LF and Bote to third, how is this roster going to be any better than 2020?</p><p>Losing Lester, Chatwood and Darvish from the rotation is a killer issue. Will you go with inexperienced pitchers like Alzolay, Rea and Marquez to be placeholders?</p><p>The roster down grades are apparent in the OF, starting rotation, bullpen and closer.</p><p>With Contreras, Bryant and Baez being actively shopped by Jed Hoyer, who knows what dumpster fire will take the field during spring training.<br /></p>welhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04738304482603944090noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4089350793244894587.post-18465391533519824262020-12-30T05:00:00.121-06:002020-12-30T05:00:03.301-06:00TEAR DOWN<p> Part of the MLB Trade Rumors live chat from December 29:</p><div class="chat-row-group-container user"><div class="chat-row chat-row--alias user jotcast solo"><span class="alias ">Cubs (Comment)<br /></span></div><div class="chat-row user jotcast solo" id="message_2101172"><div class="chat-time"><span class="">2:01</span></div><div class="chat-message"><span class="message-text">Seems they just gave away Darvish. Also are Cubs in rebuild now.</span></div><div class="chat-message"><span class="message-text"> </span></div></div></div><div class="chat-row chat-row--alias moderator jotcast solo"><span class="alias admin alias-user-37">Steve Adams (Response)<br /></span></div><div class="chat-row moderator jotcast solo" id="message_2101213"><div class="chat-time"><span class="">2:03</span></div><div class="chat-message"><span class="message-text">They
pretty much did. They're a worse team now with Davies than with Darvish
and Caratini, and no one else they acquired will help them before 2023.
This team won the division and went to the playoffs -- and despite the
fact that no one else in the NL Central is trying, the Cubs are content
to just deliberately get worse. <b>I'd be furious if I were a Cubs fan</b>.</span></div><div class="chat-message"><span class="message-text"> </span></div><div class="chat-message"><span class="message-text"> "I'd be furious if I were a Cubs fan."</span></div><div class="chat-message"><span class="message-text"><br /></span></div><div class="chat-message"><span class="message-text">The Cubs are not in a rebuild. They are in a tear down. Epstein left early because he did not want the terrible job to trade away or cut his "friends" (players he signed). One commentator said of the Darvish deal, he did not realize that Jed Hoyer was still working for the Padres.</span></div><div class="chat-message"><span class="message-text"><br /></span></div><div class="chat-message"><span class="message-text">It does send an awful message to Cub Land.</span></div><div class="chat-message"><span class="message-text"><br /></span></div><div class="chat-message"><span class="message-text">It was reported that the Cubs lost $200 million in 2020. However, if you look closely, that is an exaggeration. And most of the losses were self-inflicted by ownership.</span></div><div class="chat-message"><span class="message-text"><br /></span></div><div class="chat-message"><span class="message-text">The Cubs biggest problem was its television deal. Or lack of one. The Marquee Network was a first year failure. Comcast did not pay the Cubs network until October. The national TV revenue was probably cut to a third. The Cubs current radio rights deal is very small when it burned itself by leaving WGN in a bumbling fashion. The Cubs probably had total broadcast revenue of $25 million.</span></div><div class="chat-message"><span class="message-text"><br /></span></div><div class="chat-message"><span class="message-text">But the Cubs payroll of $214 million was prorated down to $71 million. Plus, the Cubs saved on not funding any minor league affiliates. Plus, early in the year, the Cubs laid off most of its scouting and development staff. In reality, the "baseball operations" may have lost $50 million in 2020.</span></div><div class="chat-message"><span class="message-text"><br /></span></div><div class="chat-message"><span class="message-text">But the Ricketts biblical horror has to do with the fact no fans came to games. They claim that 67 percent of their revenue comes from fans attending games. Again, there is no way to know if that is true. But the argument is mixing apples and oranges as a great portion of Ricketts family revenue comes from non-baseball operations. Wrigley Field is a separate revenue entity. Ricketts lost all extra concert revenues. The bars and restaurants in Gallagher Way had no thirsty fans to spend big money pre and post games. There were several tenants in Ricketts buildings that went out of business, including Joe Maddon's restaurant, meant that rental revenues were seriously down. The hotel was closed for the entire year, so no revenue from that property. The other ancillary businesses, such as the parking lot revenue, also evaporated. But part of the problem of Ricketts financial cries is that they overbuilt the neighborhood, relied on public support at inflated prices, and bombed at creating their own cash cow network. If Ricketts lost $200 million, it is fair to guess that most of it is from bad ancillary business operations.</span></div><div class="chat-message"><span class="message-text"><br /></span></div><div class="chat-message"><span class="message-text">As it stands today, the Cubs projected 2021 payroll is $122 million. If the Cubs trade of Darvish is any indication, the pending free agents of Bryant (owed $18.6 M), Rizzo ($16.5 M) and Baez ($11 M) are also trade targets (but at much lesser value than Darvish). You might as well add Hendricks ($14 M) to the fire sale bargain bin. If you trade those players, Ricketts lops off another $60.1 million in payroll. NOW, YOU CAN BOAST you are at $62 million, small market level which means you may be able to break even on the baseball side in 2021.</span></div><div class="chat-message"><span class="message-text"><br /></span></div><div class="chat-message"><span class="message-text">It is obvious that Ricketts and the front office do not care about the fans. The Cubs WON the division this year. The Reds and Brewers already signaled that they were giving up on 2021. The Pirates are already in the early stages of a complete rebuild. The Cardinals lost veterans and seem to be willing to stay pat this off-season. The NL Central is going to be a weak and crappy division that the Cubs could win again if the team stayed as is. </span></div><div class="chat-message"><span class="message-text"><br /></span></div><div class="chat-message"><span class="message-text">To say that Davies, Mills, Alzolay and Rea are just as good as Darvish, Lester, Chatwood and Quintana is an insult. The Cubs currently only have TWO outfielders listed on their 40 man roster. It speaks to the fact that the 2021 roster will be filled in with cheap, journeymen players at the end of their careers. It stinks like the teams Epstein pulled together during his rebuild (the ones he wanted losses from to get high, no risk first round draft picks).</span></div><div class="chat-message"><span class="message-text"><br /></span></div><div class="chat-message"><span class="message-text">The one elephant in the room that the Ricketts cannot see is that the great Cub fandom is not going to pay premium prices to watch a crappy, tear down AAA team play at Wrigley Field. Fans do not have to - - - they have their World Series Championship and those memories. The Cubs lost their "lovable loser" badge in favor of dynasty championship franchise. The latter did not materialize even though the Cubs did make the playoffs. The bitter taste is that the young core that has aged out underperformed (sat on their laurels) with only one World Series appearance.</span></div><div class="chat-message"><span class="message-text"><br /></span></div><div class="chat-message"><span class="message-text">This tear down will be brutal and further be financially destructive to ownership who still thinks owning the "Cubs brand" is like printing money. The pandemic may not be under control until July, 2021 when the vaccines will be readily available to the general public. The middle class that lost their businesses due to lock down closures, bankruptcies and lack of employment opportunities is not going to be season ticket holders or even cable subscribers as the season starts. </span></div><div class="chat-message"><span class="message-text"><br /></span></div><div class="chat-message"><span class="message-text">No one is going to shed a "tear" for ownership during the tear down because the Ricketts are not very well liked in Chicago. The family politics and relationship with Sinclair still irks some fans. People will not pay premium dollars for an inferior product when there is a young and exciting baseball team on the South Side of town.<br /></span></div></div>welhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04738304482603944090noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4089350793244894587.post-51747039485710743792020-12-17T06:00:00.010-06:002020-12-17T06:00:06.104-06:00OFF-FIELD BALK<p> Major League Baseball and all 30 of its teams are suing their insurance providers, citing billions of dollars in losses during the 2020 season played almost entirely without fans due to the coronavirus pandemic. But the vast majority of business cases involving the pandemic (contract clauses, payment issues, insurance claims) have failed to give aggrieved parties any relief.<br /></p><p><br />The suit, filed in October in California Superior Court in Alameda County, was obtained Friday by The Associated Press. It says providers AIG, Factory Mutual and Interstate Fire and Casualty Company have refused to pay claims made by MLB despite the league’s “all-risk” policy purchases.</p><p><br />The league claims to have lost billions of dollars on unsold tickets, hundreds of millions on concessions, tens of millions on parking and millions more on suites and luxury seat licenses, in-park merchandise sales and corporate sponsorships. It also cites over a billion dollars in local and national media losses, plus tens of millions in missed income for MLB Advanced Media. It says all of those losses should be covered by their policies.</p><p><br />Since COVID-19 sparked government-ordered shutdowns in March, judges have dismissed more than four times as many business-interruption lawsuits as they’ve allowed to proceed, according to a preliminary analysis by the University of Pennsylvania Law School.<br /><br />Industry executives say pandemic-related losses may be their biggest ever, and business-interruption claims will likely be part of that, even though many insurers added virus waivers to policies over the past decade following the SARS outbreak in 2003.<br /><br />The Insurance Journal reports most of the cases tossed out so far had virus-exclusion clauses. When policies don’t have the exclusion, insurers are arguing COVID-19 can’t cause the physical damage or loss required for a business-interruption payout, like from a tornado or flood. And the industry is winning dismissals with that argument, according to the Insurance Information Institute.</p><p><br />“Business-insurance policies are meant to cover physical things,” said Sean Kevelighan, the chief executive at the institute, which has more than 60 insurance company members. “There’s a ways to go” in the legal battle over coverage, but “the beginning of it is encouraging,” he said.</p><p><br />A September win by Farmers Insurance Exchange in California typifies how some judges interpret “physical loss or damage.” A federal judge concluded a barbershop chain couldn’t show its business suffered a “distinct, demonstrable physical alteration.”</p><p><br />Other businesses have also struck out in trying to persuade judges to allow their claims to go to trial over policies that had virus exclusions. A federal judge in Arizona ruled Nov. 13 the Class AA Chattanooga Lookouts and more than a dozen other teams couldn’t overcome the exclusions. <br /></p>welhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04738304482603944090noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4089350793244894587.post-91373180732690828292020-12-11T09:26:00.002-06:002020-12-11T09:26:29.454-06:00LICENSE TO KILL<p> Brew Crew Ball posts: <br /></p><p id="WFQiHx">It’s been a while since we’ve seen a minor league
baseball game. The 2020 MiLB season was lost because of the ongoing
COVID-19 pandemic, and the status of 2021 is still uncertain as the
pandemic continues. However, planning for the minor leagues is still
underway. Earlier this year, MLB announced their decision to take
control of the minor leagues and restructure them. Small pieces of
information have been coming out since then, but nothing substantial has
been confirmed yet. That could come as early as next week, as J.J.
Cooper of Baseball America reports that MLB is nearing their decision on the minor league teams. <br /></p>
<p id="4Hybqq">Though the full details are not known, the structure of
the leagues appears to be set. There will be the same four top levels,
with leagues in each level. Here’s how the Baseball America report
breaks down the leagues:</p>
<ul><li id="fUmbdS">
<strong>Triple-A:</strong> East and West</li><li id="nuNlEY">
<strong>Double-A:</strong> Central, South, and Northeast</li><li id="YXEETH">
<strong>High-A:</strong> Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, Northwest</li><li id="ubmOMP">
<strong>Low-A:</strong> California, Florida, Carolina/South Atlantic</li></ul><p>News from Fresno situation confirms major changes will happen. Fresno was a AAA team. Under MLB's plan, it was told to change to Class A or fold. Fresno, like most other minor league cities, has a municipal ball park and associated public debt. No team, no lease payments. The strong arm tactic worked. In addition, Fresno and the team owner had to sign off on a legal waiver of claims against MLB as part of the deal. This foretells there will be litigation on the horizon.</p><p>Part of the agreement reported on the Fresno deal was that the Fresno team could apply "for a license" to operate a minor league team from MLB. This is another significant change. In the past, each minor league team was an independent business entity or organization. It has "affiliate" agreements in which major league teams would pay money and assign player contracts to the clubs. Players without a major league contract could be bought and sold.</p><p>Major league owners through the league somehow believe they "own" the sport. To "license" intellectual property means you own a brand, a product or a service. Baseball itself is in the public domain. But to "license" a team is different than the first rumor that MLB would "franchise" minor league teams. A franchise is a security regulated by state laws. A license agreement is not; it is controlled under contract law. Even though MLB can put in restrictions in these new license agreements, new club owners probably will have little recourse. <br /></p><p>Minor League players already have a class action pending against MLB for unpaid wages under federal law. MLB's new minor league plan would eliminate 40 clubs and 1000 players. The cut clubs and players will not be happy with MLB's strong arm tactics. The cities and towns affected by the loss of their minor league teams will be upset. Anyone with a long term view of the sport needs to be troubled because minor league baseball is still one of the major ways to hook young kids into being baseball fans.</p><p>It is clear that MLB owners want to save money. They do not think they are getting enough value for the millions spent on minor league development system. It is surprising that the owners finished the short 2020 season with a 35 man taxi squad/minor league practice team. That model makes one wonder if that may be the next minor league contraction (similar to the small NBA development league).<br /></p>welhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04738304482603944090noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4089350793244894587.post-36071772522209755452020-11-23T11:26:00.000-06:002020-11-23T11:26:03.014-06:00SHUFFLING THE DECK CHAIRS<p> Everyone knows the Cubs are a sinking ship. Tom Ricketts continues to declare "biblical" losses during the 2020 season. Theo Epstein could not part the sea of red ink. So Theo decided to bail; he cut a deal where his friend, Jed Hoyer, would retain his job with the new President title. The move saves Ricketts $10 million in Theo's 2021 salary. (The Athletic reported that recently the Cubs laid off 100 employees which we assume does not count the scouting and minor league staff let go early in the year.)</p><p>The Cubs are still a highly leveraged (debtor) team. The Ricketts family is also highly leveraged due to their overbuilding around Wrigley Field. The pandemic crushed their real estate holdings as many tenants, including Joe Maddon's restaurant, went out of business. Tom Ricketts had convinced his parents that the Cubs were a money making machine even in bad times (under the Tribune ownership).</p><p><br />But the Cubs bowing out early in the playoffs since the World Championship has hurt the club, both financially and structurally. Theo and Jed put all their eggs in early first round (can't miss) prospects like Bryant, Schwarber, Almora and Happ while overpaying for free agents to fill roster gaps (especially in pitching.) </p><p>Since 2016, the team core (Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Contreras and Schwarber) have not lived up to high expectations. Instead of a dynasty, the Cubs gained one World Championship (which was a generational accomplishment not to be dismissed in their legacy). But as 2021 is around the corner, the cupboard is bare.</p><p>Three fifths of the starting rotation is gone to free agency. The core of Bryant, Baez, Rizzo and Schwarber are in their final contract years. The Cubs minor league system is devoid of any major prospects. The system ranked 26th with Nico Hoerner the only Top 100 prospect.</p><p><br />2021 appears heading toward a "crash and burn" season. The pundits believe the Cubs should trade their pending free agents to get something for them (other than a compensation draft pick). But others note that those players are coming off bad seasons so they have little trade value. A few writers even speculated that the Cubs could non-tender Schwarber to save his projected $8 million arbitration award. No team is going to take Bryant and his $18.5 million projected salary as a rental player, especially with his injury history and poor 2020 stats.</p><p>The only players with real trade value are Darvish and Hendricks. But Hoyer cannot be insane to trade away his remaining starters for prospects. Internal candidates to fill the rotation are Mills, Alzolay and Rea. Ian Happ was the only player to show a break out potential to other clubs. But trading Happ leaves Almora the sole center field candidate.<br /></p><p>Even though money came off the books (Lester, Chatwood, Quintana), that money appears to be lost in 2021 as Ricketts clearly indicated that the payroll must come down substantially. As of today, there is not one AAA player who projects to be a starting MLB player. </p><p>Another problem is that the fan base may not support another complete tear-down rebuild. The Cubs were good enough in a bad division to have middle round draft picks but it will be more hit and miss since the scouting department was gutted in 2020. Player development has always been an issue for this team. Hoyer indicated that he may rely more on advanced stats than scouting eyes. But that has been the problem with stat overload on major league players (and a rotation of coaches preaching new approaches). </p><p>The Epstein era had the Worst of Times and the Best of Times and now fades back to the Worst of Times. For diehard Cub fans, the White Sox resurgence with young, exciting players, is going to be bitter pill to swallow as the Cubs begin to wallow.<br /></p>welhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04738304482603944090noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4089350793244894587.post-78913322218011353512020-10-29T15:37:00.001-05:002020-10-29T15:37:30.869-05:00THOSE DARN SOX<p>Reporters, insiders, pundits and fans are perplexed by the White Sox pivotal off-season move.</p><p>MLBTR reports on the announcement and immediate ash fall.<br /></p><p>The White Sox announced today that Hall of Famer Tony La Russa is
returning to the organization as their new manager for the 2021 season.
La Russa has agreed to a multi-year deal according to Scott Merkin of MLB.com.</p>
<p>La Russa managed the
White Sox from
1979 and ran through the 1986 season. It
appears that La Russa was owner Jerry Reinsdorf’s pick from the
beginning. Indeed, ESPN’s Jeff Passan stated
that the move to hire La Russa was purely a “Reinsdorf decision” while
noting that others in the organizations “have concerns” about La Russa’s
ability (or lack thereof) to connect with the club’s young core.</p>
<p>It’s been nine full seasons since La Russa last managed at the MLB
level, with the Cardinals, and the game has changed considerably since
that time. Data from clubs’ analytics departments has increasingly made
its way into in-game decision-making, often generating polarizing
reaction from fans, and the sport as a whole has moved to embrace
aggressive defensive shifts and pitching strategies that defy the
conventional wisdom which permeated big league dugouts during La Russa’s
last run.</p>
<p>Since that time, La Russa has remained involved in the game in a
variety of roles, most notably serving as the Diamondbacks’ “chief
baseball officer” from 2014-17 — a stint that is remembered more for his
role in overseeing one of the more lopsided trades in recent memory
than for the team’s performance in that time.</p>
<p>After moving on from skipper Rick Renteria, it was reported that the
White Sox wanted an experienced manager with a winning pedigree, which
prompted many onlookers to speculate about Hinch and former Red Sox
manager Alex Cora.
La Russa does fit the bill on a fundamental level, having spent 33
years a Major League manager during which time he’s posted a .536
winning percentage, taken home six pennants and won three World Series
titles.</p><p>
<i><b>Still, to say this hiring bucks the industry trend at this point
would be making a colossal understatement, and the decision to bring La
Russa aboard has already generated a rather perplexed reaction from
those within the game and pundits alike.</b></i></p><p>LaRussa can be considered an old school hard liner, but he was in the forefront of creating the modern bullpen assignments in managing a pitching staff (more credit could go to pitching coach Dave Duncan). There is a question whether LaRussa's presence will upend the current roster chemistry that exceeded expectations in 2021.<br /></p><p>There is no doubt that Jose Abreu can keep the numerous young Latin players in line. It is the vocal, clubhouse guys like Tim Anderson and Dallas Kuechel who could be a concern. They know they are ready, willing and able to win. Will LaRussa be a help or a hinderance?</p><p>It was also puzzling that the White Sox did not interview any other candidate. League rules require at least a minority interview, and it is claimed that LaRussa qualifies because his mother was born in Spain. But it did not matter because who is going to ruffle the feathers of Reinsdorf, who is still considered a leader of the MLB owners. <i><b></b></i></p><p>The other key decision points to come will have LaRussa's input: coaching staff and free agent roster decisions. The White Sox need to shore up starting rotation depth and middle relief. Right field is still an open for someone to take it. Will the Sox retain second catcher James McCann or go with their two minor league catchers? Is Michael Kopech ready physically and mentally to assume the #3 starter role in 2021? Or do the White Sox spend money on a big free agent arm like Trevor Bauer (another off-the-cuff speaker who can rub some people the wrong way).<br /></p><p> </p><p> For years, local media has reported that Reinsdorf desperately wanted to win another World Series. It probably stung when the Cubs won in 2016, putting the White Sox back into little brother position. But the building excitement is on the South Side as the Cubs have hit a hard financial wall and barren farm system. <br /></p>welhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04738304482603944090noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4089350793244894587.post-54389520664349528342020-10-08T09:02:00.001-05:002020-10-08T09:02:23.185-05:00THE BIG CHANGE IN THE LITTLE SHOW<p> The current MLB and minor league cooperative contract has expired. MLB is making a dramatic move on how it treats the minor league system.</p><p>In the past, the minor leagues were independent ball clubs. Minor league teams created their own leagues. Those leagues then made agreements with MLB in regard to player contracts. MLB teams draft and sign players to contracts. Those contracts are "assigned" to a minor a league club that has a working developmental agreement. Major league teams helps pay certain costs and provides staff such as head coach and pitching staff to minor league teams. Minor league teams were responsible for scheduling games, paying players, and coaching them for promotion. But not all players on a minor league roster have a major league agreement. During a season, a minor league team can "sell" or assign their player contracts to their affiliate major league team. In the past, this is how many smaller minor league owners made a good deal of money for their teams.</p><p>In 2020, the minor league system, relying on attendance as a major revenue source, shut down. </p><p>As a result, MLB teams decided to create 60 man squads (40 man roster plus another 20 players). The teams split them into an active roster (for most of the season) and a training squad at a separate location to fill in for injured players. It did provide top prospects the opportunity to reach the major leagues quicker than the normal path.<br /></p><p>The MLB split squad concept worked well. We thought that MLB may decide to eliminate the minor league system in favor of a modified in-house training squad. But MLB had a bigger fish to catch.</p><p>MLB had been hinting that it wanted to eliminate at least 40 minor league teams from their affiliate status with major league clubs. Minor league baseball teams, especially the lower classes in small rural markets, were upset by that proposal. </p><p>MLBTR reports that changes for MLB and MiLB’s
working partnership have been moved forward. The agreement between the two entities recently
expired, and MLB now plans to bring the minor league system under their
governance. MLB took a big step towards accomplishing their goals this week.</p>
<p>MLB released a statement announcing their plans to transplant
the minor league offices to MLB’s headquarters in New York City, per
Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times.
Shaikin also notes that MLB is now referring to minor league clubs as
“licensed affiliates.” <br /></p>
<p>By joining the offices to MLB headquarters, the minors are now a branch of MLB, notes Maury Brown of Forbes.
Part of this process is the hiring of Peter Freund and Trinity Sports
Consultants to help MLB and their new “licensed affiliates” transition.
Freund owns minor league clubs at three levels, and he is a partner with
the Yankees. His broader responsibilities will be in spearheading MLB’s
efforts to build a cohesive minor league system and “implementing a
modern approach to player development,” per MLB’s statement.</p><p>It would seem that the old independent clubs are now being turned into minor league "MLB franchises" like your local McDonald's or Burger King. If true, MLB (and/or MLB clubs) will get to set standards and practices that all minor league teams must follow. <br /></p>
<p>MLB has taken a lot of heat for their movement in this direction,
specifically for insufficient minor league players salaries and the
cutting of some 40 teams from the minor league system. Minor league
ballplayers recently won early round of class action litigation when the Supreme Court denied MLB’s appeal, thereby
granting players to move forward on their labor payroll lawsuit against Major
League Baseball. Basically any minor league player since 2009 can now
join the suit in suing MLB for violation of minimum wage laws. This is
one of the many issues that MLB hopes to address over the coming months.</p>But one thing is certain: the traditional minor league system is going to drastically changed by MLB.<br />welhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04738304482603944090noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4089350793244894587.post-67696005840793249822020-10-05T15:53:00.001-05:002020-10-05T15:53:35.374-05:00THE ROAD AHEAD<p> The Cubs dismal playoff run ended in another whimper.</p><p>Since the 2016 Championship, the Cubs have steadily gone down hill in October.</p><p>And it is surprising since they had home field advantage for this run.</p><p>The promise of a Cub dynasty was an illusion.</p><p>Theo Epstein has one season left on his contract. He will leave the Cubs because he is being handcuffed by the Cubs business side and the bitter taste of bad contracts which led to his down fall.</p><p><span style="font-size: small;">The Cubs only have 16 players under contract for 2021 (assuming the Cubs are not stupid to exercise $25 million option on Lester).<br /><br />The projected payroll for those 16 is still $162 million.<br /><br />Another $16 million is minimum to fill out 40 man roster. That is $178 million.<br />You have your starting OF and IF in tact, but no bench.<br />And you only have two starting pitchers (Darvish and Hendricks).<br />And you are stuck with Kimbrel as your closer (Jeffrees is a FA).<br /><br />Consideringwe estimate Ricketts lost at least $75 million on baseball and his failing real estate development (many tenants went bust during the pandemic), the Cubs will not spend any money (again) as the core 4 become free agents after 2021 (Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Schwarber). There will be no "let's go for it" final charge by this team. It looks more likely it will fizzle before the end of next spring training.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;">The prospect of another LONG rebuild is here. The Cubs minor league system is barren. Epstein did not draft and develop one quality starting pitcher during his tenure. The post-2020 pandemic season may lead to a very tense stand-off with the players union in the last year of the CBA. Owners will demand lowering the luxury tax (as a means of repressing salaries). Owners will probably try to keep the 60 man bubble taxi squad program in lieu of spending millions on a minor league system that did not play in 2020. (It is important to note that minor league players won the first part of their class action lawsuit against minor league owners and MLB for being paid less than the minimum wage.)</span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;">Another fall out from 2020 is that the Cubs (and most clubs) terminated most of their scouting and training staffs in order to save money. The Cubs were an administrative top heavy organization so it is doubtful that Epstein in his final year will have the budget to spend to re-hire his former troops.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;">If the Cubs 2020 was a lost season, then 2021 could be a dead one. <br /></span></p><p><br /></p>welhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04738304482603944090noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4089350793244894587.post-692944443460446712020-09-22T15:54:00.000-05:002020-09-22T15:54:11.863-05:00KEY PLAYOFF STARTER<p> Most baseball writers believe there will be several major upsets in the first round of the playoffs.</p><p>The reason is simple: it is a short series, best of three.</p><p>Any professional baseball team can win a series. The whole season is based upon short series. </p><p>Because of the shortened MLB season, each 2020 game had an equivalency of three regular games. If a 2020 team had a three game losing streak, it felt like it was a 9 game losing streak. Slow starts made teams bottom dwellers for a long time.</p><p>Most writers also felt that most clubs would be around .500. In the NL, it was a closer prediction. But as with last season, there has been a surge of pitching and a lack of hitting as the season winds down. The simple reason is that pitchers have again found that the high fastball is a good chase pitch. And umpires are calling it.</p><p>Pitching and defense wins championships. This season will bear that out.</p><p>But in the first round of the expanded playoffs, starting pitching will be the key. The first game of the series is worth about 3 regular playoff games (in a best of five match). It sets the tone. It gives the victor some breathing room.</p><p>But in reality, the starter in the second game is more important. Game 2 is either total victory or clawing back from the dead. Elimination games often put more pressure on the team that can close out their opponent. Some reverse psychology is at play. Good teams with good chemistry can change their fortune in an elimination game behind a quality starter.</p><p>The Game 2 starter can get the team a rare playoff off-day in a series sweep or keep his team alive to fight for another day. <br /></p><p>If you are a manager, I would advise to set up your rotation with your BEST starter for Game 2. There is more at stake in Game 2 than Game 1. Game 3 is going to be a nervous wrecking ball for both clubs, so a veteran starter would be a preferred choice.</p><p>Because there will be no travel days because of the bubble playoff format, teams cannot just rely on three starters. Four man rotations will be a must. A too clever manager may throw a bullpen, all hands on deck fire drill.</p><p>You could probably slot your first series Game 2 starter as your second round No. 2 with the possibility of being a short rest Game 5 starter if necessary. If not, then he can move into the No. 1 role for the pennant series.<br /></p><p><br /></p>welhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04738304482603944090noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4089350793244894587.post-50594022793913460902020-08-19T09:36:00.004-05:002020-08-19T09:36:37.741-05:00NEW ARMS RACEIn baseball, an Arms Race was the assembly of the best starting pitching rotation. Teams invested heavily on aces and strike out pitchers. But the game has now evolved into data sets, analytics and pitch counts. Starters no longer eat up 7 innings or more per start. Most are lucky to finish five.<br />
<br />
The trend is to bolster the bullpen and find a quality set-up man and closer.
The new Arms Race is getting a stacked line up of home run hitters.<br />
<br />
The Twins led the majors last season hitting 307 HRs in 162 games, or 1.90 HRs/game.<br />
<br />
The White Sox rebuild has focused on getting more power hitters in the line up. So far in 2020, it seems to have worked. In 2019, the White Sox hit 182 HRs (15th in the AL) or 1.13 HRs/game. In 2020, they have hit 38 HRs in 24 games, or 1.58 HRs/game. That is approximately a 40 percent jump in HR production.<br />
<br />
The Twins have hit 37 HRs in 2020 in 24 games or 1.54 HRs/game. This is approximately a 19.5 percent decline in HR production.<br />
<br />
Suddenly, the offensive playing field has leveled off between these two AL Central rivals.
Emphasis now returns to pitching to off-set hitting thereby setting off another Arms Race.welhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04738304482603944090noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4089350793244894587.post-15674891170951200722020-07-30T10:32:00.002-05:002020-07-30T10:36:21.467-05:00WORSE THAN HORRIBLEThe Cubs bullpen may be the worst collection of arms in a century.<br /><br /> It is the most glaring weakness on a ball club that has started out at 4-2.
<br /><br />In the short 2020 season, 10 percent has been played.
<br /><br />Overall, the pitching staff is not doing well:
4 W 2 L 5.43 ERA 53 IP 39 H 32 ER 27 BB 1.245 WHIP
<br /><br />But the bullpen is a black hole of badness:
0 W 0 L 9.65 ERA 18.2 IP 18 H 20 ER 20 BB 2.036 WHIP<br /><br /> The answer to this problem is clear: the Cubs failed to address the bullpen issues.
The reason was management refused in the off-season to spend any money.
<br /><br />Instead, you have pitchers coming out of the pen you have never heard of;
some making their major league debuts, some long term minor league journeymen, or
some who have not thrown in two years a major league pitch.
The bullpen is a bunch of reclamation projects with a slim hope that one
will catch lightning in a bottle.
<br /><br />Cub fans are stuck with this horror show. With the expanded playoffs of 16 of
30 teams, no one is really going to trade anyone at the deadline. And some
teams, like the Marlins, are toxic viral clusters so why infect your team
with another problem?
<br /><br />Can the offense score 6 runs or more each game to counter-balance the bad bullpen?
NO, of course not.<br /> <br />And that is why this season will be worse than expected.welhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04738304482603944090noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4089350793244894587.post-73837164223813597892020-07-24T09:27:00.004-05:002020-07-24T09:27:29.435-05:00ANOTHER BAD IDEAJust before the strange 2020 season began, MLB and the union agreed to an expanded playoff.<br />
As MLB continues to shovel "new" rules and game changes, why not add another bad one to the pile? The season is a mess to begin with. <br />
<br />
According to ESPN, the agreement is just for this season.<br />
<br />
Playoffs now expand from 10 teams to 16. Fifty-three percent of all teams are now part of the 16-team expanded playoff proposal. Yeah, youth baseball participation awards are here!<br />
<br />
But then it gets even worse.<br />
<br />
The No. 1, 2, 3 seeds
in each league—the Division winners—would pick their opponents among
the other five teams. This is a hokey, cheesy television reality show STUNT. Does MLB have any institutional PRIDE left?<br />
<br />
According to multiple reports, the top-three in each league will go to regular season division winners. According to <em>Sports Illustrated</em>'s
Tom Verducci, the second place team in each division will also qualify
for the postseason with the remaining two spots going to the teams with
the next best records.<br />
<br />
The real problem with this new format is that THE BEST TEAMS are not rewarded by the new system. The division second place teams are automatically in the post-season even if their record is worse than other teams in their league. In a 60 game schedule, this may have sub-.500 clubs automatically making the post season and a club with an above .500 record sitting out.<br />
<br />
But it is not about having the best teams playing for a championship. It is not about having the best product on the field.<br />
<br />
"We are excited to announce the expansion
of the 2020 Postseason," commissioner Rob Manfred said in a statement.
"This season will be a spring to a new format that will allow more fans
to experience playoff baseball. We look forward to a memorable
Postseason concluding a year like no other and appreciate the continued
partnership and enthusiasm of ESPN and TBS."<br />
<br />
THIS!<br />
<br />
The new playoff push was from the national networks who are trying to salvage some revenue by having more post-season games (which benefit MLB owners as well). welhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04738304482603944090noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4089350793244894587.post-78018767800480252882020-07-23T07:07:00.002-05:002020-07-23T07:07:24.437-05:00MAGNIFICATIONThe 2020 season will be a grind. 60 games in 9 weeks plus 2 days. There will only be 5 days off.<br />
<br />
Commentators have called this season a "sprint" to the finish. It is more like "sink or swim."<br />
<br />
The general rule of thumb in pennant race is that a team is still in contention if the number of games behind is equal to or less than the number of weeks left in the season. The reason is simple: unless you are playing the divisional leader head to head, it is very difficult to gain ground or pass other division teams.<br />
<br />
The schedule will be a pressure cooker. Teams are going to be playing an average of 6.6 games per week. That is about as bad as youth travel baseball clubs.<br />
<br />
Each win or loss equals 3 regular season games.<br />
<br />
A three game losing streak is equal to a 9 game losing streak. That is the magnitude of the season.<br />
<br />
Each three game series is a playoff contest. You must win two of three in order to advance. That has to be the mindset. There needs to be a sense of urgency. There may be a 40 victory team this season (equal to 120 wins) and a 40 loss team (perhaps in the same division). <br />
<br />
The microscope will be on everyone: the new managers trying to learn on the fly; established starters who cannot afford "slow" starts; and teams with high cost talent with no major revenue. Post-season or bust has never been more alarming than this year. As it stands today, starting pitchers are having a harder time getting into game shape than hitters.<br />
<br />
And this assumes that the league will actually play a full season. Today, it was reported another 70,000 positive coronavirus tests in the US. The Toronto Blue Jays have been evicted from Canada. The plan to play in Pittsburgh was vetoed yesterday by the state. The Jays might as well change their name to the "Orphans."<br />
<br />
With the new game rules and the condensed schedule, the 2020 season will have a big question mark in the history and record books. If a player hits .400, does it really count?welhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04738304482603944090noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4089350793244894587.post-346858683973630512020-07-16T11:50:00.003-05:002020-07-16T11:50:57.618-05:00BY THE NUMBERS<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Today's story is a continuing loop of arrogant denial.<br />The Cubs think their team is the best entertainment product in Chicago<br />so Comcast HAS TO carry its network.<br /><br />Today's story from Yahoo Sports:</span></span><br />
<br />
<div id="QabJY6">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">“I’m starting to lose you. Hello?”</span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span></span><div id="461g5K">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">That was Marquee Sports Network general manager Mike
McCarthy when asked for an update on the carriage talks between his
network and Comcast, which has yet to pick up the channel. It wasn’t the
first time he played the joke, either.</span></span></div>
<div id="461g5K">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span></span><div id="wvarsY">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">“Good memory,” he said. “I’ll have to come up with another one.” </span></span></div>
<div id="wvarsY">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span></span><div id="5peHCR">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">McCarthy, who previously was president of MSG Network in
New York, knows all about carriage talks. But he wouldn’t reveal much
regarding the ones that affect lots of Cubs fans, except to say he’s
confident a deal will get done. </span></span></div>
<div id="5peHCR">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span></span><div id="oMNG5G">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">“I can’t speak for Comcast,</span> <span style="font-weight: bold;">but I wouldn’t want to be in
the TV distribution business in Chicago with the Cubs coming back and
not having that content,</span>” he said. “It wouldn’t be a fun place to be, I
would think. </span></span></div>
<div id="oMNG5G">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span></span><div id="T6wg1K">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">“We have a confidence that we’re steadfast in. There’s a
little time left [before Opening Day]. It’s closing in on us; we’re very
aware of that. We remain confident that a deal will be made.”</span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span></span><div id="A4j2Kr">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The sides were very close to an agreement in March when
baseball shut down because of the coronavirus pandemic. Comcast provides
service to more than half of the homes in the market.</span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">>>>>
Of course he cannot speak for Comcast because Comcast holds all the
leverage and understands it does not need the Cubs to succeed.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">It already has a baseball team - - - its partner in CSNBC. And the White Sox have the buzz the Cubs had in 2015 but with a younger team.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The math does not make sense for Comcast. It's extended basic package in Chicago already costs $95/month. Cord cutting is still happening because of the cost. The Cubs wanted $6/month per subscriber - - - that puts the costs over a hundred dollars a month for most people who will not even watch the games. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">In 2019, Cubs local ratings dropped from 4.8 to 4.1 (135,000 viewers). </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">If a cable operator has 1.6 million subscribers, but only 135,000 watch Cubs games, it means 92 percent of its customers DO NOT want to pay for the Cubs games.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">By this metric, Comcast could only justify the expense if 135,000 x $4/viewer/month (last alleged Cubs offer) or $540,000/month (or a 34 cent increase in all customer bills).</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">By the Cubs financial desire and valuation, it wants $4/viewer/month on 1.6 million subscribers or $6.4 million/month. (Which equate to $76.8 million, which is less than reported TV revenue in 2019 by about 22%).</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Comcast
is in no rush to EAT $6 million/month for Cubs broadcasts when it has
the White Sox on its own regional sports network. Why bail out a
competitor?</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">And why should Comcast pay for Marquee when the 2020 season is still in doubt? By signing a carriage deal now, Comcast would have to pay Marquee whether Cubs games are shown or not. A network that has not gotten good reviews from those few people who actually can see it.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The Cubs ownership position was flawed from the beginning. It took too long to get its network in place under the broken and outdated Dodgers model. Ownership got greedy because of the built up debt and realities of overbuilding around Wrigley. Management arrogantly assumed that it could get a better deal than its past cable partnership. By all metrics, they are wrong. </span></span>welhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04738304482603944090noreply@blogger.com