The Stealth GM

LINE UP QUESTIONS

2012-03-03T09:54:00.001-06:00

The early debate in spring training is who will be Sveum's lead off man. When DeJesus was signed, it was stated that he would be the lead off guy. But now, the old grumblings of Soriano returning to the top has surfaced and not yet been discounted by Sveum. Sveum continually remarks that he does not have any traditional one through six hitters at his disposal. In other words, Sveum has nothing to work with.

But here are the projected Cubs starters:

Player HR-RBI-AVG-OBP

DeJesus rf 10- 46 .240 .323

Byrd cf 9-35 .276 .324

Soriano lf 26-88 .244 .289

Stewart 3b 0-6 .156 .243

Castro ss 10-66 .307 .341

Barney 2b 2-43 .276 .313

LaHair 1b 2-6 .288 .377

Soto c 17-54 .228 .310

In a pure "small ball world," where OBP is most important, you would stack your lineup with the highest OBP hitters:

1. LaHair .377

2. Castro .341

3. Byrd .324

4. DeJesus .323

5. Barney .313

6. Soto .310

7. Soriano .289

8. Stewart .243

But that line up looks really odd. Another philosophy is to put best base hitters on top and best RBI men from #3 down then around the line up card.

1. Stewart 6

2. LaHair 6

3. Soriano 88

4. Castro 66

5. Soto 54

6. DeJesus 46

7. Barney 43

8. Byrd 35

In a similar vein, run your best HR hitters from #3 and around back to the top.

1. Barney 2

2. Stewart 0

3. Soriano 26

4. Soto 17

5. Castro 10

6. DeJesus 10

7. Byrd 9

8. LaHair 2

If you assign points to all these batting orders to get a composite line up, here is what that would look like (lower number, higher in the order):

1. Castro (11)

LaHair (11)

Stewart (11)

4. Soriano (13)

Barney (13)

6. Soto (15)

7. DeJesus (16)

8. Byrd (18)

You cannot have three players bat lead off at the same time (but that would be an interesting experiment in surrealism), but it does give a sense that the Cubs batter are a mish-mosh of mediocrity. The only thing that seems clear could be Soto, DeJesus and Byrd at the bottom of the order. The Cubs expect Stewart to have a massive rebound to middle of the order power hitting season. But that is not a guarantee. The Cubs have no traditional lead off man so Castro, Barney, or DeJesus could be plugged into that role.

Will Sveum get a set line up by the end of spring training and stick with it? Or will he fiddle with it like Lou Piniella did on a daily basis?

NATIONAL THIRD ISSUE

2012-02-29T16:30:00.000-06:00

The Cubs have had a problem filling third base for most of the seasons after Ron Santo left the club. A series of "can't miss" rookie busts to end-of-career players have played statue on the hot corner. There have been a few notable exceptions, like Bill Madlock and Aramis Ramirez.

Currently, the Cubs have put all their eggs at third in the journeyman Ian Stewart basket. The back up is apparently Jeff Baker, who is also the back up for LaHair at first and Barney at second. (Note: Barney is Castro's back up at short so go figure the Cubs depth chart).

The only alternative is Marquis Smith at AAA Iowa, but apparently he has gotten the dreaded AAAA tag and is not on the 40 man roster or mentioned in any spring training stories.

The Nationals have the opposite problem. The team just signed Ryan Zimmerman to a long term extension. He has been the face of the franchise until the new top draft choices hit their stride this season. However, with the number six pick in last year's draft, the Nats selected Rice 3B Anthony Rendon, who by all accounts, is tearing up the spring. Scouts believe that Rendon, 21, could push his way onto the major league roster by the June. The reason: pure swing offense and good defense.

So, it would appear that Rendon is "blocked" by the long term fixture at third, Zimmerman. So teams in need of a potential long term solution at third (the Cubs), would be calling the Nationals GM to inquire. But the Nats won't take the call because they will work out Rendon at second and shortstop. In other words, they will find a spot for him to play alongside Zimmerman.

If the Stewart trade does not work, the only possible alternative on the radar would be Tigers deposed third baseman Brandon Inge. His career numbers may be slumping, so he would be considered another journeyman stop gap solution.

GARZA TRADE REVISITED

2012-02-27T11:18:00.000-06:00

Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune laments on the anniversary of the big Matt Garza Cubs deal with the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Cubs sent five prospects to the Rays, for starting pitcher Matt Garza.

Outfielders Sam Fuld, Brandon Guyer and catcher Robinson Chirinos all made it onto the Rays 2011 roster during the season. Shortstop Hak-Ju Lee and right-hander Chris Archer are listed as Top 100 prospects in all of baseball.

Garza won 10 games for the Cubs last season. He will make $9.5 million in 2012, and most likely more in 2013, his final year of arbitration before free agency.

Rogers reports that the Rays are extremely happy with the deal.

"I don't think any of those guys have done things we didn't expect them to," Rays general manager Andrew Friedman said. "It's not like any of them had a year where they just blew the doors down. They're all good players, they play the game fundamentally well and that fits with our organization. They're part of the depth that we believe in, and that's why we made that trade."

The question is asked whether the Cubs should have made that trade. Fans are about 50-50.

Former GM Hendry made the deal because he was under the false belief that the Cubs were just one pitcher away from winning the NL Central and returning to the post season.

Five prospects for Garza may be hard to swallow when Epstein is trying to re-stock the barren minor league inventory.

Garza went 10-10, 3.32 ERA in 31 starts. He had a good WHIP of 1.258 and a K/BB ratio of 3.13.

But on a poor Cub team, he was not a difference maker.

Top line starters are hard to find. Durable front line starters are even harder to find. Garza fits that mold, so far. So from a evaluation perspective, one has to give up a lot in a trade to receive a lot in return.

And the Cubs thought they were dealing from surplus: Lee was going to be blocked by Castro; Chirinos was being blocked by Soto, Castillo and Clevenger; Fuld was not in their long term outfield bench plans; and Guyer could be blocked in the future by Brett Jackson. But what has happened is that the Cubs have a diluted major league bench because these prospects are no longer in the pipeline.

So a possible idea is to flip Garza this season for a package of prospects. It will be more difficult because last year was the ideal time to make a Garza for prospects deal. Garza has a hefty salary and is only under 2 years control to a new team. Unless you are a Boston, or Yankees who will commit $75 million for an extension, the market for Garza is limited.

REBUILDING

2012-02-25T08:30:00.000-06:00

As spring training opens, owner Tom Ricketts and manager Dale Sveum proclaim that the Cubs are not "rebuilding" and that the team "as assembled" is ready to compete for the playoffs.

Yes, they are both delusional.

Ricketts is a clueless owner who now, after three seasons and massive second half no-shows, must realize he needs to sell tickets. Lots of tickets. And get fannies in the seats to make money. Money that he has already spent on new real estate and a Fenway Junior wall in right field. He has decreed no one in the organization shall use the term "rebuilding."

Sveum said when he was hired, the team would not be "rebuilding" but "building." It is all just double speak at this point.

Every new acquisition, except for Maholm and T. Wood, would not be a starter on their old club. So, technically the Cubs may be "collecting the trash" instead of rebuilding at this point.

Examples:
New 3B Stewart would not be starting in Denver. He played more in the minors last season than the majors. He is not a foundation piece of the future; he is a stop gap replacement for the departure of Ramirez.
New 2B Cardenas was waived (cut) by the A's, but he has a chance to unseat Barney at second.
New 1B LaHair is 29 and a career minor league player. He is no longer a prospect, but a prospector panning for some personal reward for his last shot at playing time.

By all accounts, the Cubs are viewed as a 70 win team for 2012. That is not competitive. That is fighting off the Astros for last place in the NL Central. And if management cannot see the truth in that statement, then it will be an extremely long time before the Cubs fortunes turn around.

READY PROSPECTS

2012-02-22T11:01:00.000-06:00

There are numerous publications out listing the best baseball prospects and the best team prospects. It is a matter of scouting reports, statistical analysis, and subjective opinion when those lists are created. It takes years before a prospect is signed until a general manager knows whether the player can contribute at the major league level or is a bust. Just based on the limited number of roster spots on a major league team, the odds are against most minor leaguers getting to the majors. The failure rate is more than 75 percent.

But some prospects are more ready than others to take the final examination. When teams look at their organizational charts, they may have an immediate, short term and long term view of player development. Fans look toward what are you doing for the team now. From that perspective, one can glean how the Cubs view their own talent pool to determine "ready prospects," those players not with a full year in the majors (who would be rookies this season) who are on the protected 40 man roster and those players at AAA Iowa, one step from being promoted to the Cubs. Here is the list of the most ready talent in the Cub system:

Ready Prospects Cubs (* lhp)

40 Man Roster

Beliveau p *

Cabrera A, p

Castillo, L, p

Dolis, p

Gaub, p *

Maine, p *

Mateo, p

Weathers, p

Castillo, W, c

Clevenger, c

Cardenas, in

LaHair, 1b

Lake, ss

Rizzo, 1b

Vitters, 3b

Campana, of

Sappelt, of

Szczur, of

Iowa Cubs (AAA)

Berg, p

Caridad, p

Jackson, J., p

Parker, p

Rusin, p *

Schlitter, p

Smit, p

Struck, p

Smith, M., 3b

Jackson, B, of

Spencer, of

THE HAMMER

2012-02-21T11:35:00.000-06:00

Numerous reports have the Theo Epstein compensation matter resolved by a "settlement trade."
The Cubs are sending pitcher Chris Carpenter and a player to be named later to the Red Sox for a player to be named later. Since Commissioner Selig cannot unilaterally make trades between teams, MLB's resolution of the matter appears moot. Why have players to be named not named in the deal? The players may not be on the 40 man roster or they may not be eligible to be traded until after one year. Normally, when a player to be named is stated, the teams already know who the player(s) will be. It is also an open question whether San Diego's compensation for Hoyer is part of this transaction (i.e. the Boston player).

One thing is certain: Boston received significantly more than the White Sox did for Guillen; and significant more than the Twins did when the Cubs acquired Andy McPhail. In prior cases, low level (A) prospects were the compensation. In the Theo case, it is major league (40 man roster) player plus.

Carpenter is major league ready. In 10 games last season, he had a 2.79 ERA. He showed a live fastball and appears suitable for bullpen duty. Since the trades of Marshall and Cashner, we viewed Carpenter as a potential closer-in-training during Marmol's last two contract years. We suspect that is what may happen with the Red Sox, who lost their closer to free agency over the winter.

The Cubs now have 39 men on the active roster, but have not formally announced the Cuban defector Concepcion signing (which may be a major league contract and 40 man roster spot). If that is the case, it would appear Mateo would take Carpenter's bullpen slot since Mateo is out of options and the Cubs appear inclined to stockpile arms. Mateo, a year older than Carpenter, had some experience in Iowa closing games.

Add to the fact that Samardzija is in camp to be stretched out to be a starter (which he failed at when he was signed off the football squad), the bullpen is going from the strongest segment to maybe the weakest this off season. Delete Marshall, Cashner, Samardzija and Carpenter from the bullpen. Hold on to wild Marmol, aging Kerry Wood, and lefty specialist Russell, there is a huge talent gap to fill in the four open pen spots.

TEAM HAS NEEDS

2012-02-20T13:42:00.000-06:00

Hope may spring eternal, but the Cubs have glaring needs. Needs that ownership may have blinders on (considering the imposition of "dynamic seat pricing" for the bleachers this season; the same bleachers that were mostly empty in the second half of 2011). Ricketts believes that the team is not "rebuilding" because he has forbad that word in the hallways. Sveum has been coached to say "rebuilding" instead. All in the glorious foggy lens view to sell season tickets for a team that may not even win 70 games.

When management dips into the second tier free agent market, trades away young talent for second tier veterans, tries one major pitcher rehab project after another, signs journeymen with the hope that they will regain their stroke now three years removed, that is throwing mud at cracked wall instead of repairing it. That is what got Jim Hendry fired. This is what the exhalted Esptein-Hoyer team is doing. Same thing; two different perceptions.

The New Cubs have not addressed any of the pressing needs of the team. The 1-2 power hitters, Ramirez and Pena, are gone. Stewart is years removed from putting up power numbers in friendly Colorado to replace Ramirez's production at third. LaHair is Micah 2.0 at first so it is doubtful he will have as many HRs as Pena did in 2011.

In this vain, the Cubs do have, finally, an alleged first baseman in waiting with Rizzo in AAA. However, there was no move to shore up the void of third base depth or the poor marginal players at the second base depth chart. Rotating Cardenas for DeWitt at second is not an upgrade or a solution.

There is no one new projected to push the current outfielders to perform at their best. Campana, Sappelt are not starters - - - it is unclear if they are even quality defensive replacements. Reed Johnson is old and nearing the end of his bench career.

The heralded pitching make-over is a foamy mess. After Garza and Maholm, the starting pitching staff goes acutely down hill. Even though the Cubs signed at least six guys for "starter depth," none of them have any solid credentials to be a full time third, fourth or fifth starter. Just expanding the depth chart name list does not mean you have solved the problem.

Some teams solve problems by spending money. The Cubs have been fairly tight on major league purchases. With all the holes in the roster remaining, could a Roy Oswalt be a fit in the rotation as a number three or four starter? Sure, but apparently not at his $10 million asking price. Would a Johnny Damon be a higher quality fourth outfielder pushing the regulars than Johnson, Campana or Sappelt? Sure, but apparently not at his $10 million asking price. Would a Miguel Tejada, at the end of his career, turn into a Omar Vizquel infield mentor solid bench player for a team? Sure, but not at his $5 million plus asking price. As spring training begins, the market is always very thin in available talent, especially for teams that are in WIN NOW mode (which we see is what Ricketts mind set is, for financially reasons).

What are the key "need" areas for the team?
1. Starting pitching is still thin from quality arms. Dempster is on the decline, and the team is hoping for numerous "rebound" years to shore up the back end.
2. Second base would have been an easy upgrade spot; Barney is a utility infielder (he is the back up shortstop as is) at best. This position now demands more power, run production and stolen bases.
3. Overall bench depth. This may be the weakest hitting lowest power bench since the dead ball era. If Wellington Castillo makes the club, he would be the lone power hitter off the bench.
4. Depth at third base. There continues to be no long term strategy to fill this position or have a pipeline of talent ready at this critical power corner.

All these areas will come into view when spring training games begin in a few weeks.

REPORT CARD: PITCHERS

2012-02-18T09:36:00.000-06:00

When pitchers report today, Epstein and Hoyer have decided to do the shotgun approach: bring in as many arms as possible and see who can stick. And at the same time, rumors persist that Matt Garza, the #1 starter, is still available in trade.

A look at the patchwork quilt that will become the pitching staff:

STARTERS:

Garza, Maholm, Dempster, T. Wood, Volstad, Wells, Sonnanstine, Coleman, R. Lopez, J. Jackson, McNutt.

Clearly, Garza is the #1 starter barring trade or injury.
Maholm, the newly acquired lefty, should be the #2 starter based on age and ERA.
Dempster, a fan favorite, has had his skills diminished but on this roster he is the #3 or #4 starter.
T. Wood, another newly acquired lefty, will be the #4 starter if he can regain rookie form.
The fifth starter job appears to be wide open.

Under the old guard (Hendry guys) competiting for that final spot: Wells, Coleman, Lopez with long shots for rookies J. Jackson and McNutt who did not progress well last season in the minors. Based on the fact that new management is hell bent on clearing out the old GM inventory, these players would have to overachieve in order to get a shot on the 25 man roster. It also appears that Wells may have one minor league option left, along with Coleman, so the plan could be to send them to Iowa for insurance.

The New Guys new guys: Volstad and Sonnanstine. Volstad appears to have the inside track as the quasi-replacement player for Zambrano. Sonnanstine is another player looking to regain form as either a starter or long reliever.

If camp ended today, the rotation would be: 1) Garza, 2) Maholm, 3) Dempster, 4) T. Wood, 5) Volstad.
Is that an improvement from last season? We suspect in Epstein's mind it is as Maholm is an upgrade over Zambrano and T. Wood or Volstad is an upgrade over Wells and the committee of failure in the 5th starter role when Cashner got hurt.

RELIEVERS:
Caridad, Carrillo, Corpas, T. Miller, Parker, Beliveau, Cabreara, C. Carpenter, L. Castillo, Dolis, Gaub, Maine, Marmol, Mateo, Russell, Samardzija, Weathers, K. Wood

New pitching coach Chris Bosio has his work cut out for him trying to piece together new confidence and mechanics into closer Carlos Marmol. Marmol was overworked by Quade. Marmol only used his wild slider, which caused him serious problems. But Marmol is the closer until further notice (his salary and control issues make him a less likely trade candidate than Garza).

With Sean Marshall traded, the key set-up man role (8th inning) will fall to this group: K. Wood and Samardzija. Samardzija is again being touted by the brass to convert to a starter, but that would be another mistake. He does not have the pitches to be an effective starter. There are concerns that converting him now will result in Cashner style injuries. The media PR campaign got Kerry Wood re-signed by the Cubs, but under the surface I don't think Hoyer wanted to bring back another old, fragile Cub.

The old guard (Hendry's guys) looking for a bullpen spot:
Right handers: Caridad, Carrillo, Parker, Cabrera, C. Carpenter, Dolis, Mateo (who is out of options)
Left handers: Beliveau, Gaub, Maine, Russell

The power arms are Carpenter, Dolis and Mateo. Caridad is coming off an injury season. Parker and Cabrera are mere prospects. The real interest will be in the lefties. Who will replace Marshall? Will the Cubs have a lefty specialist? Last year's lefty specialist was Russell, but his awful starts mess up his stats. Gaub may get a long look and the long shot is Beliveau.

The New Guys new guys:
Right handers: Corpas, L. Castillo, Weathers
Left hander: T. Miller

In two words: scrap heap. The veterans brought in by the new GM are all cast offs or injured players hoping that they can regain their form from years gone by. Corpas, a former closer, has not pitched well in more than three seasons. Weathers has had major control problems. Miller, 38, was a three team journeyman last season and had a horrible 1.851 WHIP. Castillo, 22, is a converted infielder to pitcher so he is a major work in progress since he has only pitched in Class A. Weathers, 26, lost his control and has struggled in Class AA last season. He finished 19 games but had no saves. His 1.752 WHIP and 5.32 ERA are horrible for a bullpen pitcher. He would be a major reclamation project. So none of Epstein-Hoyer's new reliever signees have any real shot at making the club (unless it is merely spite for spite's sake.)

We assume that the Cubs will continue to carry 12 pitchers. That means 7 bullpen players. As it stands today, this is the most probable pen for 2012:

Closer: Marmol
8th inning set up man: K. Wood
7th inning: Samardzija
Middle reliever: Carpenter
Lefty specialist: Russell
Long reliever: Sonnanstine
Left handed swing man: Maine

Is this pen better than last season? With the subtraction of Marshall and Cashner, the answer is no.

REPORT CARD: POSITION PLAYERS

2012-02-17T12:40:00.000-06:00

Pitchers and catchers report to spring training tomorrow. Spring training was supposed to allow for competition for roster spots; veterans had to prove they still had their skills, and prospects had to prove that they had the skills to be major leaguers.

In many recent franchises, and a cross all sports, the notion of camp competition has been downgraded or eliminated by the managers or coaches who do not want to be distracted by a "position controversy," whether it is at quarterback or center field. Managers and coaches want a quiet camp with no media frenzy or criticism. The greatest criticism for this trend is that the lack of competition creates no depth on the bench. A veteran with diminishing skills may hang on longer because the coach has a relationship with the player and thinks the player can rebound or still contribute. As one retired manager once said, playing rookies shortened his career by at least a season.

So as the Cubs report to camp, what, if anything, is up for grabs?

OUTFIELD:
There will be no competition for the starting lineup. Soriano will be in LF, Byrd will be in CF and DeJesus in RF. Soriano and Byrd have been trade bait since July, 2011. Both had declining stats last season. Byrd was viewed as a replacement for Derek Lee in the third or fourth hole in the lineup, but he had neither the power or RBI production to even bat 8th. Soriano is clearly only interested in hitting homers, and his defensive continues to be bad. DeJesus comes to Wrigley to play RF, which will take some adjustment from the spaciousness of Oakland.
Soriano will be backed up by Reed Johnson. Byrd and DeJesus will probably be backed up by Sappelt (in order to appease critics of the Marshall deal). It is doubtful the Cubs will carry another pure OF like Brett Jackson. Jackson on the major league squad will create an immediate fan debate that he should be playing every day. That is why the Cubs will most likely keep Jackson with Rizzo in Iowa for at least half the season.

INFIELD:
If there is one position in play, it would be second base. Barney had a good rookie first half in 2011, but then his production fell off the planet. As an average fielder with range issues, this is a place the Cubs need to improve either defensively and/or with power. However, no one on the current roster is suitable to take over that role. So new signees such as Cardenas, E. Gonzalez or Amezaga could get a shot at taking out Barney.
Stewart is locked to start at third, LaHair at first, and Castro at shortstop. Stewart and LaHair's back up projects to be Baker at this point. Some one like Tolbert could be the 25th man, a utility infielder. The overall infield play is going to be weaker than last season as the candidates to replace Ramirez and Pena do not appear to exist.

CATCHER:
Soto is the starter, but teams have enquired about trades. If Soto stays, he is the starter. But here is where real competition can improve the position. Wellington Castillo is ready for prime time. He has the power and catching skills to start. Jaramillo has more major league experience, and is generally thought of as a Koy Hill back-up replacement at best. In the wings is Clevenger, who also has upside potential. If Soto stays, it is likely to avoid "catcher controversy," both Castillo and Clevenger will be sent to Iowa and Jaramillo will be the light hitting back up. If Soto is traded, then this would be the primary position battle of spring.

OUT OF OPTIONS

2012-02-15T08:16:00.001-06:00

MLTR reports that various teams have players on their 40 man rosters who are out of options to be sent to the minor leagues (without clearing waivers).

Cubs

Marcos Mateo, Jeff Samardzija, Geovany Soto, Bryan LaHair

All these players could be on the final 25 man roster. Soto and LaHair are named starters.

Samardzija is suitable for bullpen duty like last season.

Mateo is the odd man out. Most likely, Mateo is the player to be waived when the Cubs

announce the Concepcion signing and have to move a player off the 40 man roster.

From around the league, there are some possible waiver claim candidates if these players

don't stick at the end of spring:

Brewers

Mat Gamel, Chris Narveson, Manny Parra, Jose Veras

Giants

Emmanuel Burriss, Nate Schierholtz

Indians

Shin-Soo Choo, Shelley Duncan

Nationals

Roger Bernadina, Tyler Clippard, Ross Detwiler, Tom Gorzelanny, Henry Rodriguez

Phillies

John Mayberry

Pirates

Joel Hanrahan, Jeff Karstens, Charlie Morton, Garrett Jones

Rays

Jeff Niemann, Sam Fuld, Matt Joyce

Reds

Homer Bailey, Bill Bray, Juan Francisco, Wilson Valdez

Tigers

Don Kelly, David Pauley

THE GRAY MONSTER

2012-02-14T10:08:00.000-06:00

The new Wrigley Field right field scoreboard and stair stepped mini Green Monster Walls is underway, as the webcam photo to the right shows.

At the Cubs convention, the team gave fans a short glimpse of a odd sketch of the improvements that will contain a "party patio."

The photo shows the scaffolding at the first level or stage of construction: the scoreboard level. The new 16' tall electronic scoreboard is the center piece for new revenue (advertising). But at what cost?

There has been very little follow-up in the local press about this reconstruction project, other than the Sun-Times story that the team forgot to run it by the city or to pull construction permits. Traditional fans were aghast at the notion that the symmetry of Wrigley Field would be destroyed by a new vertical facade.

But fans have to understand that owner Tom Ricketts is obsessed with the Red Sox. So much so he overpaid and hired Theo Epstein and his crew. So much so that he wants to have his own "Green Monster" seats at his ball park. This whole right field complex is only going to increase seating by 43 patrons. It seems like an awful lot of money spent to increase the fan experience by 43 with a new scoreboard competing with the iconic manual center field scoreboard.

But look closely at the photo from center field. The new RF complex is going to rise well above what is shown. By even at the lower scaffold level, the current left field corner seats will be blocked from viewing center field. The expensive lower field box section 142 stops just at the foul pole, but it is the terrace boxes, Section 242, that appear to be now half obstructed view seating. Who creates a new seating project that creates probably 150 obstructed view seats in the process? The Cubs.

Bringing the "roof top" experience into Wrigley Field itself is not going to help sell the adjacent Section 242 seats to church, pack or civic lodge group sales if their traditional terrace section view is now blocked. The average ticket price in Section 242 was $35. If you lose 150 seats due to obstruction, that is $5,250 per game. If you are adding 43 seats to the RF bleachers at $100 premium, that is only $4,300 per game. The numbers only balance out if the party deck averages 53 attendees per game, something that was scarce last year in that old "family" bleacher section.

And how long with the new Wrigley vertigo wall experience, excitement last? Four, five innings??
But as the management said, it is about being able to mill around the long row of your 29 other friends without the confined space of traditional row seating. With corporations and groups cutting back on group outings, how many games will the party area be basically vacant?

Also, unanswered is how the new vertical wall will affect play. Is the scoreboard in play, meaning that former HRs into the bleacher seats will now bounce off the scoreboard for long singles? How will a wall affect the aerodynamics of the northerly, and westerly winds as the hit this new structure? We believe that it will have an effect of pushing back fly balls back towards home plate. Which would give the home team that is stocking up on left handed pull hitters a home field disadvantage.

It just does not seem that this new Wrigley project was thought out in detail. It was like the Northwestern football game at Wrigley. When the teams showed up to play, they could only use half of the field because one end zone ran into the bleacher wall and was considered unsafe.

No one knows for sure, but it looks like the new structure will also partially block the view of the two roof tops behind it on Sheffield. Whether that will cause some neighbor friction, is unknown. But it cannot be helpful that the Cubs are aggressively trying to take away roof top customers.

So as it stands, we will see a huge wall go up in the RF bleacher corner, dramatically changing the historic look and playing conditions of the ball park, and create possibly hundreds of obstructed view seats in the process, all for a team projected to win only 70 games in 2012.

HOW THE WHEELS OF THE CART CAN COME OFF QUICKLY

2012-02-13T09:52:00.001-06:00

Even the Boston Globe has gone from curious to astonishingly frustrated by the lack of a decision in the Theo Epstein to the Cubs compensation matter. This weekend's Globe article sheds a critical light on what the hold up is really all about:

"It got to the point where the Sox really had to move on with their offseason and had to have a clear decision as to who was their GM. So Sox president Larry Lucchino agreed to let Epstein out of the final season of his contract with the understanding from Cubs owner Tom Ricketts that the Red Sox would receive a “significant’’ player in return."

So the Red Sox ownership and team president were at an unworkable situation with Epstein, so the team agreed to release Epstein from his final year of his contract in exchange for a "significant" player in return. And if Tom Ricketts agreed to this, then he is a dullard and a fool.

In the past, two low level unheard of minor league prospects was the usual compensation for hiring away management. Now, suddenly, with the Cubs it becomes a nuclear compensation melt down.

The Globe story adds: "In the early going, the Sox gave it the old college try, asking for Matt Garza or shortstop Starlin Castro. Now that’s significant. Of course they were rebuffed."

Well, of course you don't give up the young Ernie Banks 2.0 of the franchise or one's number one starter for a guy that will NEVER hit, pitch, run or catch a ball on the field. That would be plain crazy stupid.

But the question still remains, and the Red Sox must have grounds to continue to demand for a "significant" player in compensation, so much so that Bud Selig is taking forever to get the issue resolved (which means if it would be two low level prospects it could have been done in a day.)

The Globe then speculates on who would be in the significant list for the Red Sox: Travis Wood, Jeff Baker and Reed Johnson combo, Anthony Rizzo, Josh Vitters, Junior Lake, Matthew Szczur, Chris Carpenter, James Russell, Jeff Samardzija, top prospects Brett Jackson and Reggie Golden, shortstop Javier Baez, righties Trey McNutt, Zach Cates, and Dillon Maples, and catcher Wellington Castillo.

If any of those mentioned names are part of the Red Sox compensation, then that would be a serious set back for the Cubs. T. Wood is the replacement for Zambrano; Rizzo the replacement for Pena; Carpenter the replacement for Cashner; Russell the replacement for Marshall; Castillo the replacement for K. Hill. Any of these players taken off the Cub roster would unravel Epstein's alleged trading Plan to acquire long term assets. The Lost Season of 2012 could spill over into the Lost Seasons 2012, 2013 . . . .

Plus, there still is the Hoyer compensation due the Padres!

YEARS AWAY

2012-02-11T09:51:00.002-06:00

Two recent lists of Top Cubs prospects are out: one from MLB.com and one from ESPN's Keith Law. Many of the players are so young or recently signed not to have much press or detailed scouting reports. But the lists do show that the Cubs are still a long way away from having deep prospect talent.

MLB.com

1. Anthony Rizzo, 1B (Epstein's big trade)

2. Brett Jackson, OF (Hendry's last best pick)

3. Javier Baez, SS (young, raw)

4. Matt Szczur, OF (got a Smardzilla guaranteed contract from Hendry to forgo football)

5. Chris Carpenter, RP (Cashner light)

6. Dillon Maples, SP (the late rounder Hendry paid 1st round money on last year)

7. Trey McNutt, SP (he had to stay so Archer went in the Garza deal)

8. Rafael Dolis, RP (been hanging around a long time with little ML experience)

9. Robert Whitenack, SP (eh?)

10. Reggie Golden, OF (on top list for a while but seems not to be promoted up)

11. Junior Lake, SS (potential rising star)

12. Josh Vitters, 3B (perennial bust candidate)

13. Ronald Torreyes, 2B (maybe the key in the Marshall deal)

14. Ben Wells, SP (eh?)

15. Dan Vogelbach, 1B (the large high school kid the Cubs overpaid for in the draft)

16. Jeimer Candelario, 3B (don't know, another new Hoyer international signee???)

17. Gioskar Amaya, IF (don't know, another new Hoyer international signee???)

18. Marco Hernandez, SS (don't know, another new Hoyer international signee???)

19. Dave Sappelt, OF (the toss in in the Marshall deal; another Campana)

20. Pin-Chieh Chen, OF (don't know, another new Hoyer international signee???)

Law:

1. Anthony Rizzo, 1B

2. Brett Jackson, OF

3. Javier Baez, SS

4. Trey McNutt, RHP

5. Zach Cates, RHP

6. Wellington Castillo, C

7. Dillon Maples, RHP

8. Josh Vitters, 3B

9. Reggie Golden, OF

10. Matt Szczur, CF

The Cubs had three prospects in Law’s top 100, – outfielder Brett Jackson, first baseman Anthony Rizzo, and shortstop Javier Baez. Rizzo, who comes in at 36. Jackson, who is roundly considered a top 40 prospect by other lists, is ranked 89th by Law. Baez, usually in the top 50, is 95th.

So what do the authors agree on?

Rizzo is the best Cubs prospect. He is about 1/2 year away from the big leagues, or longer if LaHair does not struggle. Brett Jackson is the second best prospect, and he is ready to play but is blocked by Byrd in centerfield. Baez is a raw shortstop with upside potential, but Castro is the Cubs shortstop for the long term (unless they switch him to third). McNutt is the best pitching prospect, but did not have a great 2011. Maples is the second best pitching prospect, just signed out of college. Will he be fast tracked? Szczur is an overpaid outfielder who is also being blocked by Soriano and DeJesus so it less certain whether he will wallow in the minors for years to come. Golden is a young Class A prospect like former Cub Corey Patterson who may slowly work his way up the ladder to the majors some day. Vitters is the 8th best prospect, but his stock is fading as each year passes.

When the talk from Wrigley is that the turnaround of the organization will be completed by 2013 (with this year being the team's Lost Season), outsiders view the minor league system as being very weak. Even if Epstein-Hoyer-McLeod have an excellent draft in June, those players will be three years away from the majors . . . so the turn around ETA is more like 2015.

EITHER . . . OR?

2012-02-09T13:10:00.000-06:00

It is a simple game. Either, or. Pick which player you think is better at the position for the 2012 Cubs:

LF Soriano or Reed Johnson?
CF: Byrd or Brett Jackson?
RF: DeJesus or Campana?
3B: Stewart or Vitters?
SS: Castro or Barney?
2B: Barney or Cardenas?
1B: LaHair or Rizzo?
C: Soto or Wellington Castillo?

Bench:
C: Jaramillo or Clevenger?
IN: Baker or Gonzalez?
OF: Sappelt or Adduci?

It is those simple "gut" calls that a general manager may have to make in order to pare down the spring training invitees down to the final 25 man roster, by either option to the minors, trade a player or two, or release one or two.

SECOND BASE HOLE FILLED?

2012-02-06T16:59:00.001-06:00

Chicago Cubs press release:

"CHICAGO – The Chicago Cubs today claimed infielder Adrian Cardenas off waivers from the Oakland Athletics. In a corresponding 40-man roster move, infielder Blake DeWitt was designated for assignment.
Cardenas, 24, batted .314 (154-for-491) with 28 doubles, four triples, five home runs, 70 runs scored, 51 RBI and a .374 on-base percentage in 127 games with Triple-A Sacramento last year. The left-handed batter and right-handed thrower ranked eighth in the Pacific Coast League with 154 hits and posted his highest batting average in his five full professional campaigns.
In 2011, Cardenas saw action at second base (35 games), shortstop (three games), third base (13 games) and left field (44 games), his first professional experience in the outfield. He has primarily played second base (361 games) in his professional career.
Cardenas was originally selected by Philadelphia in the supplemental round (37th overall) of the 2006 Draft and acquired by Oakland as part of the trade that sent Joe Blanton to the Phillies on July 17, 2008. In 643 minor league games, Cardenas is a career .303 hitter (749-for-2,475) with 143 doubles, 21 triples, 29 home runs, 77 stolen bases and a .368 on-base percentage.
DeWitt, 26, batted .265 (61-for-230) with 11 doubles, five home runs and 26 RBI in 121 games with the Cubs last year, his first full season with the club after being acquired from the Dodgers on July 31, 2010. He is a career .260 hitter (283-for-1,087) in 404 major league games with the Dodgers (2008-10) and the Cubs (2010-present)."

Cardenas defense at AAA:
SS 3 games, 1.000 percent
2B 35 games, .978
3B 13 games, .886
LF 44 games, .974

Cardenas is 2 years younger, and will make the league minimum vs. DeWitt's $1.1 million. If Cardenas is signed to be a utility bench player, then this move is a salary dump if DeWitt is claimed on waivers. The Cubs have 10 days in which to decide to put DeWitt back on the 40 man roster (moving another player off), or put him on waivers or release him (and pay his salary less what another team will pay, the minimum). If the move is to try to unseat Barney at second base (or platoon lefty-righty), then we will have to see what happens in spring training.

THE THIRD BASE HOLE

2012-02-06T09:26:00.000-06:00

Epstein-Hoyer have gambled away two young prospects for an underwhelming, underperforming injury excused third baseman to replace one-tool player, Aramis Ramirez.

Ian Stewart had been packaged after the trade as just as good as Ramirez: he can regain his (inflated Coors Field) power; and that he is a better defenseman; and he bats left handed. Except, of course, his bat may not come back to his early career numbers, his defense is actually on par with Ramirez (not great) and being left handed in Wrigley is not an advantage.

If Stewart fails like the long line of garbage third baseman after Santo to Madlock then after Madlock back to Ramirez, what is Plan B?

The Cub infield roster currently stands like this:

Ian Stewart, 3b
Jeff Baker, 1b, 2b, 3b, of
Darwin Barney, 2b, ss
Starlin Castro, ss
Blake DeWitt, 2b, 3b, of
Bryan LaHair, 1b, of
Junior Lake, 2b, ss, 3b (minors)
Anthony Rizzo, 1b (minors)
Josh Vitters, 3b, 1b (minors)

For 2012, the Cubs will have to make do with DeWitt and Baker as back up third basemen.
Baker, played in 81 games in 2011 with a line of 3 HR, 23 RBI, .269 BA, .302 OBP, 0 SB.
He played 11 games at third, handling 10 chances (4 put outs, 6 assists) for 1.000 fielding %.
However, his career average at third is only .943 fielding %.

DeWitt played in 121 games in 2011 with a line of 5 HR, 26 RBI, .265 BA, .305 OBP, 1 SB.
DeWitt played 14 games at third in 2011, having 33 chances with 5 errors with a low .853 fielding %.
However, over his career, DeWitt's third base fielding % is .943, the same as Baker's.

Essentially, Baker and DeWitt are the same player taking up two roster spots on the Cubs.

Junior Lake is essentially a young (21 year old) shortstop who may be tested in the minors at second and third base because in 2011 at A+/AA he hit 12 HR, 51 RBI, .279 BA, .316 OBP, 6 SB.

Josh Vitters is the perennial third base prospect. Vitters, 22, at AA hit 14 HR, 80 RBI, .283 BA, .322 OBP, 4 SB. His fielding percentage at third last season was only .903. In five minor league seasons, his third base fielding percentage is a weak .905.

So Stewart has replaced Ramirez as the everyday starter at third, but the Cubs have not addressed the lack of depth at third base. The idea of moving Castro to third when he gets older smacks of desperation and the lack of development in your minor league system.

THE HARVEST OF THE OFF SEASON

2012-02-04T10:18:00.000-06:00

Now that Matt Garza is signed for $9.5-$10 million and not traded, the crop of baseball players on the 40 man roster and spring training invitees are basically set:

From this diseased and wilted Field of Dreams, an Opening Day roster of 25 men will emerge.

(Insert sign of the cross here)

Note: (*) are players signed by the new regime.

The non-roster invitees are:

Nine pitchers - righthanders Marco Carrillo, Manuel Corpas (*), Jay Jackson, Rodrigo Lopez (*), Trey McNutt, Blake Parker and Dae-Eun Rhee and lefthanders Trever Miller (*) and Chris Rusin

Three catchers - Michael Brenly, Jason Jaramillo (*) and Blake Lalli.

Five infielders - Alfredo Amezaga (*), Edgar Gonzalez (*), Jonathan Mota, Bobby Scales (*) and Matt Tolbert (*)

Four outfielders - Jim Adduci, Jae-Hoon Ha, Brett Jackson and Joe Mather (*)

Cubs current 40 man roster:
Pitchers

Jeff Beliveau, left handed reliever
Alberto Cabrera, right handed reliever
Chris Carpenter, right handed reliever
Lendy Castillo, right handed reliever (*)
Casey Coleman, right handed starter
Ryan Dempster, right handed starter
Rafael Dolis, right handed reliever
Matt Garza, right handed starter
John Gaub, left handed reliever
Paul Maholm, left handed starter (*)
Scott Maine, left handed reliever
Carlos Marmol, closer
Marcos Mateo, right handed reliever
James Russell, left handed reliever
Jeff Samardzija, right handed reliever
Andy Sonnanstine, right handed starter (*)
Chris Volstad, right handed starter (*)
Casey Weathers, right handed reliever (*)
Randy Wells, right handed starter
Kerry Wood, right handed reliever (*)
Travis Wood, left handed starter (*)

Catchers

Welington Castillo
Steve Clevenger
Geovany Soto

Infielders

Jeff Baker
Darwin Barney
Starlin Castro
Blake DeWitt
Bryan LaHair
Junior Lake
Anthony Rizzo (*)
Ian Stewart (*)
Josh Vitters

Outfielders

Marlon Byrd
Tony Campana
David DeJesus (*)
Reed Johnson (*)
Dave Sappelt (*)
Alfonso Soriano
Matthew Szczur

The non-roster invitees serve two purposes. First and foremost, to spell time from the regular roster players during multiple spring training games. Second, a chance to impress the Cub bosses and make the team like Tyler Colvin did a few years back. Longshots are always part of the underdog spring training wire copy; hope springs eternal.

The 9 pitchers invited to camp are there mostly to eat innings, and possibily work toward one open bullpen spot. The three catchers are in camp to be available to work with the pitching staff on drills, and to spot catch during exhibitions. Of the three, only Jaramillo has major league experience. Sensing the lack of confidence in the current minor league system, Hoyer may ship Jaramillo north with the club and keep Wellington and Clevenger in Iowa. It may not be a prudent move to do that, but it would not be surprising.

As indicated in earlier posts, the infielders invited to camp all can play second base. Second base is a upgrade need area (along with starting pitching). Mota, 24, combined to hit .270 (76-for-281) with 19 doubles, seven home runs and 38 RBI in 98 games between Tennessee and Iowa last year. He can play 3b, ss and 2b. He may be a utility infielder of the future. There has been little indication that the new regime is comfortable with DeWitt or Baker as bench/role players, except for the default that Baker is the team's back up first baseman behind LaHair. Amezaga, 34, is a career .247 hitter (348-for-1,408) in all or part of nine major league seasons with the Angels (2002-04), Rockies (2005, 2011), Pirates (2005) and Marlins (2006-09, 2011) covering 584 games. The versatile switch-hitter has seen big league time at every position but pitcher and catcher, with his most appearances at shortstop (117 games), second base (76), third base (73) and center field (256). Amezaga batted .182 (14-for-77) in 40 major league games last year.

If Epstein and Hoyer are going to force feed their change immediately, "their guys" roster selections would be:

Pitchers: Castillo, Maholm, Sonnanstine, Volstad, Weathers, T. Wood, K. Wood
Infielders: Rizzo, Stewart
Outfielders: DeJesus, Johnson, Sappelt

We already know Maholm, Volstad and T. Wood are starters. K. Wood is the set up man in the pen.
Rizzo will start in Iowa while Stewart will start at third and DeJesus in right field. Johnson is the 4th OF.

We also know that these players are locked into a roster spot by contract/no trade clauses:
Pitchers: Garza, Dempster, Marmol, Samardzija
Outfielders: Soriano, Byrd

That equals thirteen (13) players guaranteed to make the team.
That leaves twelve (12) players fighting for spots.

We don't know Hoyer's philosophy on the number of pitchers will make the team. Most teams take eleven (11) but the Cubs in the past have had (12). A weaker a pitching staff as a whole means taking an extra pitcher on board (usually a long reliever). What we do know is that Epstein traded away the best set up man (Marshall) and potential closer (Cashner). So K. Wood and Samardzija have to take those roles. Also, the club needs at least one left handed reliever from Russell, Maine, Gaub, or Beliveau. Most likely, Russell will make the team, with Maine or Gaub with secondary chances if T. Miller or Rusin do not dazzle.

We know Castro is the shortstop, LaHair is the first baseman, and Soto is starting catcher. The Cubs will only carry one back up catcher. Castillo looked good in his limited major league experience. Scouts think Clevenger has more upside potential. Either would be an upgrade over Koy Hill.

Second base is a crowded interstate highway pile up: Barney, DeWitt, Baker and the salvage crew of Amezaga, Gonzalez, Mota, Scales and Tolbert. If anyone sneaks into a bench role from this group it would be Gonzalez or Tolbert, not because of their bats but just under the guise of change.

There appears only one outfield slot open between Mather, Adduci, Campana, Sappelt, Ha, and Brett Jackson.

Jackson will not make the club unless Byrd is traded to open up centerfield for him. The organization would rather have Jackson play every day in Iowa than sit on the bench in Chicago.

Campana and Sappelt are basically the same player; 5'8" speedsters with average to below average tools. The Cubs can't afford to have a designated pinch runner in Campana on the bench, so Sappelt has an edge on that score. Ha, 21, combined to hit .279 (145-for-520) with 31 doubles, 11 homers, 72 RBI and 13 stolen bases in 132 games with Single-A Daytona and Tennessee, reaching Double-A at the age of 20. He will probably be promoted to Iowa (AAA) and be part of the real mix in 2013.

Mather, 29, has spent part of three seasons in the majors with St. Louis (2008, 2010) and Atlanta (2011), batting .228 (61-for-268) with nine home runs and 30 RBI in 126 big league games. Adduci, 26, a left-handed batter hit .308 (73-for-237) with 13 doubles, two triples, four home runs, 20 RBI and 21 stolen bases in 71 games at Double-A Tennessee last season.

There are not a lot of confident MUST HAVES to fill out the 25 man Opening Day roster. But we must reap what has been sown. This our best GUESSIMATE of what Epstein and Hoyer decisions will be:

Starting Rotation:
1. Garza, RHP
2. Maholm LHP (*)
3. Dempster, RHP
4. T. Wood, LHP (*)
5. Volstad, RHP (*)
Bullpen:
6. Marmol, RHP, closer
7. K. Wood, RHP, set up man (*)
8. Samardzija, RHP
9. Russell, LHP
10. Carpenter, RHP
11. Corpas, RHP (*)
12. T. Miller, LHP (*)
Starting Position Players:
13. Soto, catcher
14. LaHair, first base (L)
15. Barney, second base
16. Castro, shortstop
17. Stewart, third base (L)
18. Soriano, left field
19. Byrd, center field
20. DeJesus, right field (L)
Bench:
21. Jaramillo, catcher (*) (SH)
22. R. Johnson, outfielder (*)
23. Baker, infield-outfield
24. Gonzalez, infield-outfield (*)
25. Amezaga, infielder (*) (SH)

If four non-roster players make the team, four players must be removed (Mateo, Dolis, Campana, and Gaub - - - all Hendry picks). Under this scheme, the new Cubs management would have placed 10 signees on the 25 man roster, or 40%.

I would rather have 11) Maine LHP and 12) Dolis relief pitchers and 21) Castillo as back up catcher, 25) DeWitt infielder-outfielder. The only reason to have Gonzalez, Castillo and DeWitt on the bench is the potential for some spot power (HR).

DEPTH CHARGES

2012-02-03T09:09:00.001-06:00

Cubs management continues to drone on adding "depth" to the organization.

In the last two moves, the Cubs added pitchers at both ends of the prospect spectrum.

The team has signed Australian southpaw Ryan Rowland-Smith to a minor league deal, reports ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick. The Australian southpaw compiled a 4.57 ERA and a 1.64 K/BB ratio in 362 2/3 innings with the Mariners from 2007-10. Rowland-Smith, 29, spent last season in the Astros' minor league system, 2-10 record, 6.19 ERA in 22 games at Triple-A Oklahoma City; 104.2 IP, 131 H, 77 R, 41 BB, 87 K and 1.643 WHIP. In 2010 with Seattle, he was 1-10, 6.75 ERA in 27 games (20 starts), 109 IP, 141 H, 46 BB, 49 K, 1.692 WHIP.

This signing is merely a roster placeholder for AAA Iowa. At 29, Rowland-Smith has not been on an improvement track, but putting up bad numbers in AAA after failing with the Mariners. The very high WHIP indicates a real control issue.

The other signee is from the international arena, where the Cubs are keen to develop talent with the new, state of the art training academy in the Dominican. In a field of 10 teams allegedly offering him a contract, Cuban defector Gerardo Concepcion signed a $7 to $8 million contract with the Cubs. The contract will become official once Concepcion passes a physical. Concepcion's age is unclear, either 18 or 19 years old. He was a rookie in the Cuban National League in 2011. He went 10-3, 3.36 ERA in 21 games (16 starts). He was the league rookie of the year. At 6'2", the slender left hander throws a low 90s fastball.

This signing is a calculated risk. Some organizations view the Cuban baseball leagues as being Low A caliber. On the other hand, some organizations also view the Cuban national team as being a High AA-AAA caliber talent. With only one professional season to review, there is not much history with Concepcion. But the Cubs committed first round draft money in the Cuban.

Rowland-Smith has no future with the Cubs, but Concepcion is Hoyer's first big new talent signing of his GM tenure.

SECOND BASE HOLE

2012-01-31T09:07:00.000-06:00

The Cubs announced that they signed infielders Edgar Gonzalez and Matt Tolbert to minor league deals that include invitations to MLB Spring Training.

Tolbert appeared at short, second and third for the 2011 Twins, posting a .518 OPS in 226 plate appearances. Tolber, 29, played 87 games before being cut in October. His stats were not earth shattering:

0 HR -11 RBI - 2 SB .198 BA. Scouts consider him below average defense infielder.

Gonzalez, 33, picked up MLB experience with the Padres in 2008-09, but spent last year with San Francisco's top affiliate. He posted a .315/.378/.457 line in 564 Triple-A plate appearances last year. He hit 14 HR-82 RBI- 14 SB while playing second and OF in AAA.

In addition, the Cubs invited long time farm hand Bobby Scales, 34, to spring training. Last season Scales played at Iowa and in Japan.

In 2011, between Iowa and Nippon Ham Fighters, 18 HR -73 RBI- 7 SB, .280 BA.

Average fielder at second base.

In 2010, in limited duty with the Cubs, Scales batted .308, 0 HR-2 RBI-1SB in 10 games.

An invitation to spring training is really "show me what your got" try out for the major league roster. It usually means the team has a concern or weakness at certain positions. The Cubs appear to be unsettled on infield depth, and especially second base.

Darwin Barney, in his rookie season, started off fast but had a significant drop-off in the second half. HIs season line was:

143 games: 570 PA 66 R 146 H 2 HR 43 RBI 9 SB 22 BB 67 K .276 BA

The concerns with Barney's production are two fold: lack of power, and high strikeout to walk ratio. Since he does not walk very often, he is not a top of the lineup type of hitter (lead off or #2). That puts him down at the bottom of the order (#8) for which you need more power or on-base percentage to turnover the order quicker during games.

Hoyer is apparently looking to see if Scales or Gonzalez have enough home run pop left in their bats to be a regular infielder or to supply something off the bench. This is the cheap but risky solution to the second base issue. It could be easily solved if the Cubs would trade for a veteran on the market, like the Braves Martin Prado. But the Cubs decided to use the slow, uphill route in filling their roster with cast-offs and AAA players.

In any event, Barney will be on the hot seat this spring. The pressure will be on him to have an excellent spring in order to convince Hoyer that he is an everyday second baseman.

NEWS AND RUMORS

2012-01-30T08:25:00.000-06:00

News and rumors from the weekend papers:

(1) An AL GM who is not associated with the Red Sox or Cubs believes that Commissioner Bud Selig will give Boston a significant player in the compensation agreement: "I don’t think MLB wants executives leaving their teams before their contracts are up and therefore he will try to deter teams from doing that again."

>>>> Whoa. That means the Cubs interest in Cuban OF defectors Cespedes and Soler may be because #1 prospect Brett Jackson may be that compensation. That would send a message; but one has to realize that Epstein was on the way out anyway with the conflict with the team owners and president. But will Selig realize that? Probably not.

(2) The Cardinals are actively shopping pitcher Kyle McClellan ($2.5 million salary) in order to free up payroll to sign Roy Oswalt to a one year deal. McClellan, 27, is under team control for 2012-2013.

>>>> This is a type of player Espstein and Hoyer would like to pick up: young pitchers under control for several seasons. McClellan would be a fine middle rotation guy. He went 12-7 last year with a 4.19 ERA. However, I don't think the Cubs have the money or the player(s) to make a deal with the Cardinals.

(3) The Rays are looking for a veteran catcher, and Geo Soto's name has come up in the discussion as one of three veteran catchers on Tampa's radar.

>>>> Since the Cubs will not be competitive in 2012, you might as well just trade Soto for prospects (maybe some of those the Cubs sent for Garza) and run with the two high level catchers that are ready for major league duty (Castillo and Clevenger).

2014 CUBS ROSTER

2012-01-27T08:24:00.000-06:00

Spring training is only a few weeks away. All the hard work of the off-season will be on display (or in some quarters, dismay). The Cubs are in full re-build mode, but Ricketts cannot afford too long before the turnover is complete. Let us project ahead to the 2014 spring training, which will be the final transition year of the old regime and the focal point of Epstein's new beginning.

Based upon the contracts (years of "control" is a critical mantra by Epstein and Hoyer) and players in the system today, this list are the players who would be in Mesa in February, 2014:

2014 Cubs:
Position Players:
DeJesus rf
Castro ss
Soriano lf
Stewart 3b
Barney 2b
Castillo c
DeWitt inf
Campana of
Rizzo 1b
Lake inf
M. Gonzales ss
B. Jackson cf
Szcur of
Sappelt of

Starting Pitchers:
T. Wood sp
Volstad sp
McNutt sp
Maples sp
Rhee sp

Relief Pitchers:
Carpenter closer
Dolis rp
Cates rp
Maine rp
Russell rp
L. Castillo rp
B. Wells rp

The projected opening day line up would be:

1. DeJesus rf
2. Castro ss
3. Jackson cf
4. Rizzo 1b
5. Szcur lf
6. W. Castillo c
7. J. Lake 2b
8. Stewart 3b
9. T. Wood sp

CENTER FIELD JAM

2012-01-26T08:39:00.000-06:00

Yoenis Cespedes, through his agent, sent a weird 20 minute video to major league teams to drum up interest for his services since his defection from Cuba in 2011. It was a strange YouTube, self produced video that was heavy on personality and light on actual baseball footage. It was made to smooth over some international scout impressions because Cespedes international career has highs and lows.

Cespedes is an allegedly 26 years old, 5’ 10” 187 lb center fielder. His mother was an athlete, a Cuban softball pitcher who appeared in the 2000 Olympics.

He started the 2009 Baseball World Cup as Cuba's starting center fielder but struggled and only hit .194/.275/.333 while being caught in his only steal attempt. Cespedes pinch-hit and got a 9th-inning single off Brad Lincoln in Cuba's 10-5 loss to Team USA title game.

Cespedes hit .345/.426/.617 in the 2009-2010 season with 87 runs and 22 homers in 87 contests. He was third in the league in runs, 10th in hits (118), 8th in home runs, 4th in total bases and was 9th in slugging.

Cespedes was 11 for 22 with 12 runs, 14 RBI, 2 doubles and four homers in six games at the 2010 World University Baseball Championship. He drove in six against South Korea and five against China. In the Gold Medal game, he was 0 for 4 with a strikeout as Cuba's #5 batter in a 4-3 win over Team USA.

He played for Cuba when they finished second in the 2010 Pan American Games Qualifying Tournament. In the 2010 Intercontinental Cup, he was 3 for 10 with a double, 3 runs, 4 RBI and a walk as a backup.

Cespedes put up a .333/.424/.667 batting line with 89 runs, 33 home runs and 99 RBI in 90 games in the 2010-2011 season. He led the league in runs, tied for the home run lead (breaking the league record by one),[tied for the most total bases (236), tiedfor 7th in steals (11 in 14 tries), led in RBI and finished 5th in slugging. He was named the All-Star center fielder.

Pro scouts believe Cespedes is a five-tool player; one who excels at hitting for average, hitting for power, baserunning skills and speed, throwing ability, and fielding abilities. If you try to imagine the Cuban National League as a AAA-AA talent league, his numbers are pretty consistent:

YEAR       AVG HR RBI
2009          .284    26    78
2010         .345    22     76
2011          .333   33     99

However, there lacks the critical element of comparison to the talent he was playing against in Cuba. It makes it harder to project how he will do against major league pitching. So it is a real crap shoot in the dark to evaluate a player whose age, competition and major projections are mere speculation. It is also a more difficult decision since the agent is looking for a 5 year/$60 million deal.

The Cubs were one of six teams mentioned in the mix for Cespedes. That would mean that Epstein and Hoyer do not have the same evaluation of Brett Jackson, the team's center fielder in waiting, as did Hendry and the fans. Right now, Byrd is blocking Jackson from starting in CF in 2012. Jackson is ready to be promoted as he has excelled at all levels, including AAA last season. If Cespedes is signed, Byrd may be either a) the 4th OF with Reed Johnson or b) traded for low prospects. Soriano and DeJesus will not lose their starting roles.

If you are looking to fill in the middle of the order, we know Byrd is not productive in the #3 or #4 spot. Cespedes projects into the middle of the line up, and Jackson projects to a #3 hitter. Byrd's contract is up after 2012; Cespedes and Jackson can be under the same number of years of control (an aspect near and dear to Epstein's rebuild project).

Since CF is not a pressing need, the Cubs may be better off using the money needed to pay for Cespedes into acquiring depth in pitchers.

TRANSACTIONS

2012-01-25T12:08:00.000-06:00

With the last prize of the free agent derby signed (Fielder with the Tigers), let us review the transactions of the new Cub management team:

10/30/11
    RHP Rodrigo Lopez elected free agency.
    RHP Ramon Ortiz elected free agency.
    1B Carlos Pena elected free agency.
    RHP Kerry Wood elected free agency.
    LHP John Grabow elected free agency.
    LF Reed Johnson elected free agency.
10/04/11
    Chicago Cubs outrighted Justin Berg to Iowa Cubs.
    Chicago Cubs outrighted RHP Brian Schlitter to Iowa Cubs.
11/30/11    Chicago Cubs signed free agent RF David DeJesus.
11/18/11
    Chicago Cubs outrighted Esmailin Caridad to Iowa Cubs.
    Chicago Cubs outrighted Lou Montanez to Iowa Cubs.
    Chicago Cubs outrighted Kyle Smit to Iowa Cubs.
    Chicago Cubs called up Junior Lake from Tennessee Smokies.
    Chicago Cubs called up Jeff Beliveau from Tennessee Smokies.
    Chicago Cubs called up Josh Vitters from Tennessee Smokies.
    Chicago Cubs called up Matthew Szczur from Daytona Cubs.
11/15/11    RHP Justin Berg assigned to Chicago Cubs.
11/01/11    3B Aramis Ramirez elected free agency.

12/26/11
    Chicago Cubs signed free agent RHP Andy Sonnanstine.
    Chicago Cubs signed free agent RHP Manuel Corpas.
12/23/11
    Chicago Cubs traded LHP Sean Marshall to Cincinnati Reds; Cincinnati Reds traded LHP Travis Wood and CF Dave Sappelt to Chicago Cubs and Dayton Dragons traded Ronald Torreyes to Peoria Chiefs.
    Chicago Cubs signed free agent C Jason Jaramillo.
12/13/11    Chicago Cubs signed free agent 2B Edgar Gonzalez.
12/12/11
    C Koyie Hill elected free agency.
    Chicago Cubs signed free agent RF Joe Mather.
12/09/11    Chicago Cubs claim Jeff Bianchi off waivers from Kansas City Royals.
12/08/11
    Chicago Cubs traded 2B DJ LeMahieu and LF Tyler Colvin to Colorado Rockies for P Casey Weathers and 3B Ian Stewart.
    Chicago Cubs claim Lendy Castillo off waivers from Lakewood BlueClaws.

01/13/12
    Chicago Cubs signed free agent 2B Alfredo Amezaga.
    Chicago Cubs signed free agent RHP Kerry Wood.
01/11/12    Milwaukee Brewers claim Jeff Bianchi off waivers from Chicago Cubs.
01/10/12
    Chicago Cubs signed free agent C Mario Mercedes.
    Chicago Cubs signed free agent LHP Paul Maholm.
01/09/12    Chicago Cubs signed free agent RHP Rodrigo Lopez.
01/06/12
    LF Kyung-Min Na assigned to Chicago Cubs.
    Chicago Cubs traded RHP Andrew Cashner and LF Kyung-Min Na to San Diego Padres for 1B Anthony Rizzo and RHP Zach Cates.
01/05/12
    Chicago Cubs traded RHP Carlos Zambrano to Miami Marlins for SP Chris Volstad.
    Chicago Cubs signed free agent C Juan Apodaca.
01/03/12    Chicago Cubs signed free agent LF Reed Johnson.

Chicago Cubs Non-Roster Invitees to spring training major league camp:
RP Justin Berg
P Rodrigo Lopez
C Jason Jaramillo

HOME RUN POWER

2012-01-24T13:19:00.000-06:00

Now that the 2012 Cubs roster is pretty much set, there is a hue and cry about how bad the offense will be, especially in the deficiency of home run power. There are only two batters with a good probability of hitting 20 or more home runs this season: Soriano and LaHair. There are only two batters with a good probability of hitting 15 home runs: Soto and Castro.

How does a lack of a strong home run hitter impact on the Cubs overall record? Chicks did the long ball, but it is necessary in order to win?

From 1982 through 2011, the answer is a surprising no.

Year    HR Leader    Team HR    HR Leader %    Team Wins
1982    22                     102         0.21568627451    73
1983    24                     140         0.17142857143    71
1984    25                     136   0.18382352941    96
1985    26                     150         0.17333333333    77
1986    21                     155         0.13548387097    70
1987    49                     209   0.23444976077    76
1988    24                     113         0.21238938053    77
1989    30                     124         0.24193548387    93
1990    40                     136         0.29411764706    77
1991    31                     159   0.19496855346    77
1992    26                     104   0.25                      78
1993    33                     161   0.2049689441      84
1994    25                     109         0.22935779817    49
1995    36                     158   0.22784810127    73
1996    40                     175   0.22857142857    76
1997    36   127   0.28346456693    68
1998    66                     212         0.31132075472    90
1999    63                     189   0.33333333333    67
2000    50                     183   0.27322404372    65
2001    64   194   0.32989690722    88
2002    49                     200   0.245                    67
2003    40                     172   0.23255813953    88
2004    39                     235   0.16595744681    89
2005    46                     194   0.23711340206    79
2006    38                     166         0.22891566265    66
2007    33                     151   0.21854304636    85
2008    29                     184   0.15760869565    97
2009    35   161   0.21739130435    83
2010    25                     149   0.1677852349      75
2011    28                     148   0.18918918919    71

   1093                4796         0.22789824854

The lowest Team HR year was 1982 in this study. The Cubs won 73 games. The HR leader hit 21.57% of the team homers. One would assume that if you hit more home runs, you'd get more wins. The highest team HR year is 2004 with 235. The Cubs won 89 games, which is not the most during this time period. Four teams had more wins: 2008 (97 with 184 HR), 2004 (96 with 136 HR), 1989 (93 with 124 HR) and 1998 (90 with 212 HR). During the peak home run era (1998-2004), the Cubs averaged only 79 wins.

On average, the Cubs leading home run hitter hit 22.79% of the teams round trippers. Sammy Sosa's 33.33% average in 1999 was the highest in this period, but the Cubs only won 67 games that season. Even when the batting order was more "balanced," with the top home run leader was at only 13.55% of the team total in 1986, the Cubs won only 70 games.

So there is no statistical link between having a big home run hitter(s) in the line up and number of team victories.

QUALITY AT-BATS

2012-01-20T15:34:00.000-06:00

There has been some off-season discussion about teams looking to upgrade with patient batters who can work a count, and get on base. The "quality at-bat" may be a misnomer unless the at-bats leads to runs scored.

In 2011, the NL Central teams had the following statistics:

Team      Runs Scored      Plate Appearances
Reds       735                     6328
Brewers 721                     6113
Cards      762                     6242
Pirates   610                    6063
Astros     615                     6148
Cubs       654                     6128

How many plate appearances generated a run scored?

Team      RS/ PA            PA/RS
Reds       735/6328        8.61
Brewers 721/6113        8.48
Cards      762/6242        8.19
Pirates   610/6063        9.94
Astros     615/6148         9.99
Cubs       654/ 6128        9.37

But how "efficient" were teams in producing runs per plate appearance?
Which teams scored more runs per plate appearance?

Team      RS/ PA            RS/PA

Reds       735/6328        0.116

Brewers 721/6113        0.118

Cards      762/6242        0.122

Pirates   610/6063       0.100

Astros     615/6148        0.100

Cubs       654/ 6128       0.107

The Cardinals, who finished second with 90 wins, scored almost 20% more runs than the Pirates (72 wins) and the Astros (56 wins). The Cards were 3.4% more efficient in their team at-bats than the first place Brewers (96 wins) who were close to efficiency of the Reds (79 wins). To look at it another way, it took the Astros almost 2 more at-bats than the Cardinals to score a run. It took the Cubs almost 1.33 more at-bats than the Cardinals to score a run.

ARBITRATION

2012-01-18T09:23:00.002-06:00

Major league general managers have this point of personal pride of not having players test their judgment or authority by going to a salary arbitration hearing. Former Cubs GM Jim Hendry was boastful about his signing record, until Ryan Theriot refused his offer and went to arbitration (and lost). Within the year, Theriot was traded by the Cubs, which some may not see as a "cause and effect" move while others will say the message was pretty clear. Hendry demanded loyalty.

New Cubs GM Theo Epstein has a record of never having a player go to an arbitration hearing. The Cubs had seven eligible players. The Cubs settled six of the seven before the deadline to submit salary figures. Starting pitcher Matt Garza was the lone Cub hold-out. Garza had been the center of attention in trade talks to the Tigers and Yankees. Then the Yankees made a blockbuster prospect deal with the Mariners to find a young stud starter, and then the Tigers shifted emphasis to acquiring a replacement bat for injured DH Victor Martinez. Garza, 28, is the Cubs #1 starter by a wide margin. And Garza and his agent expect to be paid like a top tier starter.

Which brings into play the illogical disconnect and inconsistency of arbitration demands and negotiated salaries. In the arbitration procedure, the player submits a sum for a one year deal, and the team submits its figure. The arbitrator hears evidence from both sides then picks which number is the best fit for based on that evidence. It is either the player's or the owner's number that wins out. It is the roll of the loaded dice. However, both sides can settle the case before an award is decided.

The baseball community was that Garza would get between $8 to $9 million in an arbitration. The consensus was $8.75 million. Garza made $5.95 million last season.

Garza has submitted a figure of $12.5 million, which is a 111.9 percent raise from 2011. The Cubs submitted a figure of $7.95 million, which is a 33.9 percent raise from 2011. No one will be sponsoring a tag day for Garza if he loses the arbitration, but the difference between the two valuations is quite wide. If the consensus is the fair market valuation for Garza, it is more probable he would not win the arbitration. However, veteran 4th starters commanded more than $10 million in free agency this off season.

By comparison, Epstein and Hoyer re-signed the other arbitration players (arbitration year) (consensus award amount) in this fashion:

    * Jeff Baker (3rd year): $1.4m; signed for $1.375m (17% raise)
    * Blake DeWitt (1st year): $1.2m; signed for $1.1m (139% raise)
    * Matt Garza (3rd year): $8.7m NO DEAL
    * Geovany Soto (2nd year): $4m; signed for $4.3m (43.33% raise)
    * Ian Stewart (2nd year): $2.3m; signed for $2.237 (0.4% raise)
    * Chris Volstad (1st year): $2.7m; signed for $2.655m (497% raise)
    * Randy Wells (1st year): $2.2m signed for $2.705m (470% raise)

In the real world, none of these players would deserve a raise based upon their 2011 performance. But this is baseball, a fantasy league within itself.

If you use the measure how management values its employees by how BIG a raise they grant, then by that measure, Epstein and Hoyer value Volstad, Wells and DeWitt more than Garza. The Cubs pretty much hit consensus marks on all their arbitration players except Wells, for whom they will pay 23% more than expected for a pitcher that may not even be the team's fifth starter (current rotation projection is Garza, Maholm, Dempster, T. Wood and Volstad). Of course, that changes if Garza is traded, which is now more likely based upon the gulf between the two arbitration figures. If Garza wins the arbitration, it makes him harder to trade.

NEW OLD EMPHASIS

2012-01-16T11:32:00.000-06:00

New Wrigley RF scoreboard bleacher project

When P.K. Wrigley bought the Cubs before the Great Depression, he went on the most extensive Wrigley Field rebuilding projects, which included new bleachers, the ivy brick walls, and the iconic manual center field scoreboard. Some historians criticize that Wrigley put more money into his field namesake than into the Cubs as a team.

New owner Tom Ricketts is apparently falling into the same renovation trap, with the same old emphasis of creating more business revenue.

The announcement of the new 10 foot by 75 foot LED scoreboard in right field was clearly to increase advertising dollars at Wrigley Field. This park has the least amount of ad signage in the major leagues. After the brouhaha of the LF fence Toyota sign, the flood gates were open for more marketing prospects. Traditionalists will curse the conventions of advertising banners within the confines of their baseball cathedral.

This new RF building project falls under the domain of business operations maven, Crane Kenney. He is the one who announced it at the Cub convention. This is a revenue enhancement so he believes that he controls it. But this project will cost money that Ricketts claimed months ago he did not have (he asked the state and city for hundreds of millions of tax dollars for renovations for Wrigley and the Triangle parcel). This is on top of Ricketts family buying the McDonald's property across the street from Wrigley for approximately $23 million.

The new RF stands replaces the current 107 group box seats with 150 group seats and standing room party patio (sponsored, of course). No ticket prices were announced for this new area, but speculation is that it will be in the neighborhood of Red Sox Monster seats of $117.00. Ricketts obsession with the Red Sox is apparent in this out of character multilayered six to seven foot mini-wall seat tiers. (The artist rendering is so bad and amateurish it is hard to see the proper dimensions in perspective.)

The Wedge looks to have the following shape: the RF wall is approximately 16 ft. tall. The new scoreboard dimension are 10 ft tall by 75 ft. wide. On top of the scoreboard is the first section which is backed by an apparent 6 foot plus wall; on top of that wall is more seating backed by another 6 foot plus wall; which leads up 3 or 4 feet to a patio section. The artist's rendering shows this wedge at a vertigo incline of 45 degrees. If you add up these wedge segments, this new structure would rise minimally 42 to 45 feet about the field. That is putting up a 4.5 story building in the RF corner of Wrigley. What will be clear is that the eye-sore underside steel girders will be visible to the homeowners on Sheffield Avenue. All this construction to add 43 seats and standing room area?

The old RF box seats, even if using the overall average ticket price of $85, equated to $9,095.00 per game. However, this section was rarely sold out last season. If you have 150 new party seats at $117, you could command $17,550.00 per game. If you could sell out the new party patio for 162 games, the revenue increase would be $1.37 million. But who would pay more than the people in the bleachers in the right center field bleacher section, who would be at a more gradual eye level to the playing field? And how many years (decades?) will the increase in revenue pay off the construction costs?

It seems Ricketts is more focused in on adding Wrigley amenities or vending locations than sinking money in the actual ball club, i.e. player payroll. The current Cub payroll will be down from $140 million in 2011 to approximately $100 million for 2012. One can readily see that the payroll differential has been spent on new executives, land acquisition and Wrigley Field projects.

Most Cub fans at the team convention were hyped up by the new regime's "rebuilding" mantra to be lulled into another off-season of the rhetoric of hope and a competitive team.

CHOP WOOD, TIMBER!

2012-01-14T09:13:00.002-06:00

Theo Epstein threw away his principles and long term blueprint last night
when he announced the return to the mass of delusional sentimental fans
of KId K. It had to be on Friday the 13th. It had to be at the Cub convention.
It had to give the attendees some warm and fuzzy overtones of their past idols.

What the hell?
Again, what the hell?

A 34 year old relief pitcher coming off another knee surgery gets $3 million
while the New Management has no qualms about trading away the best
left handed reliever in MLB (Sean Marshall)?

Kerry Wood got Marshall's money, simple as that. But Marshall is a better pitcher - - -
well, he does not have a 14 year old 20 strikeout performance against a hapless
overjuiced Astros lineup on the old short and tattered resume that is Kerry Wood.

So the Cubs are back to PR moves instead of baseball moves. This has the
smell of a Ricketts-Kenney-old Tribune marketing intervention in order to put
lipstick on a pig before the prom.

But what misplaced loyalty. This is another blindsided slap at Ryne Sandberg.
He never got the respect from ownership or new management. Epstein announced
before the managerial search began that Sandberg was not a candidate. Why?
He had only won 4 years straight in the minors, with two championships. He had
paid his dues. He was loyal to the Cubs organization. He is a Hall of Famer!
And he is a fan favorite. But somehow, all these good works makes Sandberg
unqualified to be a manager. But somehow, Wood's total career of major disappointments,
blown expectations, injury plagued seasons is more important public relations
hiring a former manager who has shown clear success in winning to manage the Cubs.

This also puts Garza on the next plane out of town, for Maholm's $4.75 million plus
Wood's $3 million equals Garza's 2012 projected salary. In a zero sum game that the
Cubs payroll is going to be, PR wins out over performance, again.

This also puts more pressure on James Russell in the bullpen. As the only projected

left handed reliever, he must suddenly turn into the Next Sean Marshall. In a hurry.

Russell appeared in 64 games, 1-6 record, 4.12 ERA in 67.2 IP. He gave up 37 runs,

had a WHIP of 1.330, with 43 K and 14 BB.

Marshall appeared in 78 games, 6-6 record with 5 saves, 2.26 ERA in 75.2 IP. Marshall

gave up 21 runs, had a stellar WHIP of 1.097, with 79 K and 17 BB.

Russell needs to pitch 21% more innings at the same time cut down on runs allowed by

43% in order to come close to Marshall's performance.

CHOP WOOD

2012-01-13T12:35:00.001-06:00

There is so much media and fan torch and pitchfork yelling about the Cubs not re-signing Kerry Wood for 2012. Whatever the side deal Wood had with Jim Hendry to return at a discount for 2011 is water under the bridge. New management. New Day. New payroll budget which is shaping up to be dramatically less than 2011. Epstein and Hoyer have already turned over 25% of the Cubs end season 40 man roster. The dead wood is being burned quickly as everyone can see that 2012 is going to be a Lost Season.

It is reported that Wood wanted a multi-year deal at $4 million per season. The Cubs have said they have made him an offer with a "substantial raise." It must not be substantial enough for the current "Mr. Cub" in some fan's eyes. But if one takes off the rose colored glasses, is Wood taking a roster spot at $3-$4 million a long term step to improve the club or just short term fan service? To sign Wood now would mean the Cubs bullpen would have only one lefty reliever (Russell) instead of the projected two (Maine). The idea of blocking a young pitcher's development for the sake of some alleged intangible "clubhouse leadership" Wood brings to the locker room is just bad business. Wood, as a leader in 2011, led the team to a woeful 71 victory campaign. Wood is not an ace starter nor a premier closer. He is a 34 year old injury prone journeyman relief pitcher.

Last season, Wood appeared in 55 games, and threw only 51 innings. He had a 3-5 record, 3.35 ERA, 57 Ks, 21 BB, 1.294 WHIP.
In 2010, in the American League, Wood appeared in 47 games, and threw only 46 innings. He had a 3-4 record, 3.13 ERA, 49 Ks, 29 BB, 1.329 WHIP.

As stated in an older post, in constructing a bullpen, you want your set up man to have an ERA under 3.00 and pitch 60 innings. Wood does not meet that criteria for the past two seasons. In the same article, we stated that your middle reliever needs to throw 75 2/3 innings and have an ERA of under 2.85 to have a competitive team in the NL Central. Again, Wood does not meet that criteria.

Even if the Cubs had a spare $4 million to spend (which is doubtful they way the transactions have been going so far), it would be far more productive to spend that money upgrading second base, buying insurance at third if Stewart flops, or finding a power hitter off the bench.

Wood is not productive enough to make a difference for the Cubs, especially when the team is in nuclear winter re-build mode. The Cubs should not re-sign Wood for 2012.

CY YOUNG DIET

2012-01-12T15:33:00.000-06:00

Professional athletes regard their bodies as sports temples. A pro's livelihood depends on staying in peak physical condition. They take great concern on what is ingested into their bodies (and that is why ignorance is no defense in any steroid/PED testing rules). Teams hire sabermetic analysts, athletic trainers, physicians and nutritionists to make sure their players stay on course to good health. But again, baseball players have some strange superstitions.

Cy Young winning Detroit ace pitcher Justin Verlander told Conan O'Brien is pre-game routine the night before every start: a special diet. From Yahoo! Sports report on the interview:

Verlander: "The night before, as you can tell from my amazing physique, I eat Taco Bell."
Conan: "You eat Taco Bell the night before you pitch, every time?"
Verlander: (looks toward camera) "Yes, the night before every start. You're welcome, Taco Bell."
Conan: "It also results in your gameday diarrhea tradition."
Verlander: (laughing) "Right?"
Conan: (looks and points toward camera) "You're welcome, Taco Bell ... I'm curious, do you get a specific food at Taco Bell?"
Verlander: "Same thing every time. Three crunchy taco supremes, no tomato. Cheesy gordita crunch. And a Mexican pizza, no tomato."

PROJECTED CUB RECORD

2012-01-11T10:31:00.003-06:00

If the Cubs make no further moves, we can speculate on the 2012 major league roster and attempt to forecast the team's final win-loss record based upon the basic elements of the game, runs allowed and runs scored (see earlier post).

The starting rotation (pitcher/runs allowed/IP):
Garza 90/198
Maholm 72/162
Dempster 111/202
T. Wood 57/106
Volstad 96/166
Bullpen:
Marmol 33/74
Samardzija 35/88
Russell 37/168
Corpas 33/62 (2010 stats)
Sonnanstine 22/36
S. Maine 8/7

The pitching staff history projects 594 runs allowed over 1169 IP. We calculated earlier that a team needs to pitch 1458 innings in a season. Based on the available information, the team ERA projects to 4.57.

The roster (with runs scored) breaks down with an extra hitter than in past years because scoring is going to be an issue:

Soto 46, Castillo (38 AAA), Baker 20, Barney 66, Castro 91, Bianchi (63 AA), LaHair 9 (91 AAA), Stewart 14 (29 AAA), Byrd 51, Soriano 50, DeJesus 60, R. Johnson 33, Sappelt 14 (40 AAA) and DeWitt 21. (Update: Bianchi was waived by the Cubs to make roster room for Maholm. Bianchi was then claimed by the Brewers. We had him as the 25th man on the roster, adding 38 Rs to team projected total. It seems Hoyer is not wed to players he acquires to fill gaps. Campana may be a roster choice now, with similar reserve results).

Taking into account minor league numbers at 60% (discounted for major league pitching), and not taking into consideration the "comeback seasons" management is praying for on most of the roster, the Cubs are projected to to score approximately 631 runs in 2012. The runs per game average is 3.90.

The differential between RPG and ERA is (0.67).

In the NL Central last year, such a RPG/ERA differential would put you near the bottom.
The Cubs had a (0.30) for 71 wins and the Astros had a (0.78) for 56 wins.

Based on these ratios, the Cubs project to a 60 wins, 102 losses, 2012 season.

DEAD CAT BOUNCES

2012-01-10T09:14:00.002-06:00

New Cubs management sort of let their strategy out of the bag. Epstein and Hoyer have identified a list of players who they believe will have "bounce back seasons" to target for acquisition. The latest comeback player candidate is lefty starter, Paul Maholm, who signed a $4.25 million contract with a $500k buyout with a club option in 2013. Maholm's season ended early with a shoulder strain issue. This move is similar to the Jim Hendry pick up Tom Gorzelanny from the Pirates a few years earlier. Pirate left hand starters seem to pitch quite well at Wrigley the last few years, and Maholm fits the bill as a ground ball out pitcher in a HR alley friendly ball yard.

Maholm, 29, went 6-14, 3.66 ERA, 1.294 WHIP in 26 games for the improved Pirates in 2011. Gorzelanny came to the Cubs after a weak 2008 season of 6-9, 6.66 ERA, 1.804 WHIP in 21 games. The Cubs picked him up and made him a swing starter/long reliever and in 2009 he had a 4-2 record, 5.63 ERA, 1.357 WHIP in 13 games. There was some improvement, but not substantial.

In the financial world, after a stock quickly falls in price, there are times buyers pick it up cheaply and the stock begins to rise from the bottom of the chart. But usually, it is a short term "dead cat bounce" before the stock falls back to the bottom. Epstein and Hoyer have a lot of bouncing fur so far this off-season, including pitchers Volstad, Sonnastine, and Weathers.

The signing of Maholm also puts into play the strong probability that Matt Garza will be traded soon. David Kaplan of WGN Chicago stated that the Cubs and Tigers are in advanced talks on a Garza deal. The Cubs apparently want two Tiger top prospects, 19 year old third baseman Nick Castellanos, who hit .313, 7 HR 76 RBI in A ball, but is a defensive project, and 20 year old starter Jacob Turner, who bolted up from AA to 3 appearances in the majors late last season. Turner is the Tigers #1 system prospect. In AA-AAA last season, Turner was 4-5, 3.44 ERA, 1.160 WHIP, 110 K/35 BB which is quite good. Both of these Tiger prospects are years away from major league duty.

If Maholm is the replacement for Garza in the rotation, it is another downgrade by the new administration for the sake of roster turnover and acquisition of low prospects to re-fill the minor league ranks. The Cubs have the 6th and 41st picks in this year's draft which could lead to 2 impact players in 2014. It would also be another move to pare back payroll, as Garza is expected to make $9 million in arbitration for 2012, or about double what Maholm will make. Do not discount the fact that the Cubs have no real money to spend on free agents or veterans without dumping a corresponding amount in existing payroll. So the plan is to throw on a quick patch of new stucco on the major league roster to get some fan interest, but really pray for the new minor league system to produce a dozen quality players by 2014.

OLD SCHOOL BLUEPRINT

2012-01-09T16:41:00.000-06:00

There is an old adage that states a good baseball team has defense up the middle and powers on the corners. It is another way of describing a balanced team in a non-sabermetric way.

On the power side, one's best home run hitters are usually RF and 1B. Next would be 3B. Then LF, and if you have one, a catcher. Four of one's regular fielders should have consistent home run power.

On the defensive side, your best defenders should be your C, SS, CF (for all the ground to cover) and 2B (to turn the double play). Your shortstop, center fielder and/or second basemen would be the fastest guys in the starting lineup, with the most "steal" potential. You want your best base stealer to lead off, which usually is a SS, CF or 2B.

You have the speedy defender lead off, and the best contact, average hitter second. Then you go through your RBI man, then all the power hitters in a row until whoever is left over at the end.

So how do the current Cubs roster (still under construction) stack up under the old school blue print?

Power:
RF, DeJesus NO.
1B, LaHair MAYBE
3B, Stewart NO
LF, Soriano, YES.

Defense:
C, Soto, AVERAGE
SS, Castro, INCONSISTENT TO BELOW AVG.
CF, Byrd, AVERAGE
2B, Barney, BELOW AVERAGE

The old school line up would be:
1. Castro, ss
2. Byrd, cf
3. LaHair, 1b
4. Soriano, lf
5. Soto, c
6. DeJesus, rf
7. Stewart, 3b
8. Barney, 2b

RIZZO TRADE

2012-01-07T10:13:00.000-06:00

The reaction to the Cubs trade for Padre prospect Anthony Rizzo has been mixed; the fan base has been underwhelmed by the moves of Epstein and Hoyer this off-season.

Rizzo was one of the players San Diego received from Theo's Red Sox in the Adrian Gonzalez deal. But once new Pads GM Josh Byrnes took over for Hoyer, he traded to young starter Matt Latos to the Reds for prospect Alonso, thereby creating a jam at first base with Rizzo.

So it is apparent that the scouts and GM in San Diego thought better of Alonso than Rizzo as the first baseman of the future. Rizzo fizzled in his time in the majors last season, batting a mere .141. However, in Triple A, he had good power numbers (but LaHair had slightly better overall numbers at Iowa, and better numbers with lesser at bats with the Cubs.)

Fans were upbeat about the new Cub management team finding a solution at first base, then paused when Hoyer said that Rizzo needed "more time to develop." That leaves LaHair as the placeholder at first base in 2012. Most project a sophomore slump a la Micah Hoffpauir for LaHair.

But some fans are weary of the trade of Andrew Cashner, a known commodity, for a "prospect." Cashner, who was misused last season which contributed to his shoulder injury, will return to the bullpen in San Diego. In a pitcher friendly park, he is projected to be the set-up man with about 10 wins, 35 holds and an ERA under 3.00 (a right handed Sean Marshall). Then, he is in line to be promoted to replace Health Bell as the Padre closer, a role he had in college.

There is no guarantee that LaHair is a late bloomer, or that Rizzo is a AAAA player like Hoffpauir.

But one thing is clear, Epstein and Hoyer are discounting the Hendry prospects and signees like week old tuna at the fish market. Gone are Colvin, LeMathieu, Cashner, and Marshall. It puts a bull's eye on the back of Cubs #1 prospect, Brett Jackson, on whether he will be in the Cubs 2012 plans.

ZAMBRANO TRADE

2012-01-05T08:45:00.000-06:00

Cubs problem child, Carlos Zambrano, was rewarded for his bad behavior because he got his wish, to join fellow off-center manager Ozzie Guillen in Miami. The Cubs have traded Zambrano and $15 million in cash (to offset the $18 million owed Z in 2012) in exchange for Marlins starter Chris Volstad. The deal is still subject to league approval.

Volstad is a marginal fifth starter. Zambrano was traded at his low value point, to the only team with any tangible interest in him. Jim Hendry suspended Z after he bolted the locker room last year (and that matter is still pending with the league). Of the three "can't miss" starters the Cubs had (Wood, Prior and Zambrano), only Z made it consistently to the mound to actually pitch. He won 125 games (1 no hitter) and a career ERA of 3.60.

Volstad, a first-round draft pick in 2005, finished 5-13 with a 4.89 ERA last season after a 12-9 showing the year before. The 230-pounder made $445,000 last season. Tribune writer Dave Van Dyke states he could get up to $2 million this year in arbitration. That figure seems high for a player with bad stats in 2011 (and in essence the player's first "contract" season - - - where performance could land a big payday in arbitration. ) However, Volstad is really costing the Cubs $15 million plus his salary, or the highest paid 5th starter in the majors). The Cubs control his rights through 2014 which is the key element in most of Epstein and Hoyer's roster moves so far this off-season.

Zambrano was just 9-7 with a 4.82 ERA in 24 games last season, missing the last two months when the Cubs placed him on the restricted list for bad behavior. He goes to a team that has suddenly spent money on big free agents (Reyes, Buerhle) and now expect to contend in the NL East.

The trade gets rid of a trouble maker, but leaves the Cubs starting rotation in shambles. As it stands now, the Cubs starting rotation is (2011 stats):

1. Garza, 10-10, 3.32 ERA, 1.258 WHIP, 198 IP
2. Dempster, 10-14, 4.41 ERA, 1.450 WHIP, 202.1 IP
3. T. Wood, 6-6, 4.84 ERA, 1.289 WHIP, 106 IP
4. Sonnanstine, 0-2, 5.55 ERA, 1.458 WHIP, 35.2 IP (minors 3-6, 4.82 ERA, 1.411 WHIP, 56 IP)
5. Volstad, 5-13, 4.89 ERA, 1.425 WHIP, 165.2 IP

A staff that has a combined 31-45 record (.408 winning percentage). If your starting rotation is the precursor of your final team record, this projects to a woeful 66 win season. But Epstein and Hoyer are looking for "bounce back" seasons from every player they have signed or traded for this off-season. That is going to be a really hard sell, especially if Garza is traded next.

THE ART OF THE MANUFACTURED RUN

2012-01-04T09:29:00.000-06:00

Managers dwell on the concept of turning over their batting order as quick as possible to get more scoring chances. But many are welded to the Earl Weaver philosophy of waiting for the 3 run HR to score. You put your best hitters at the top and power hitters in the middle and let them swing for the fences.

"Small ball" is the opposite. It tries to use different baseball skills to move runners from station to station. It is not practiced by many teams because it goes against what the modern baseball player is all about: personal stats.

The art of manufacturing a run is based upon the elements of patience, speed and "productive outs." A productive out is one which advances a base runner into scoring position. A strike out is never a productive out, but in the home run era, strikeouts were no longer badges of shame for hitters. The Golden Sombrero of three strike outs in a game is no longer a symbol of failure. The lone strike out exception would be "the long at-bat," in which the batter fouls off so many pitches that it works the opponent pitcher's game pitch count higher than normal (which means the starter would get out of the game sooner).

If a team lacks power hitters to score runs, it needs to set up its batting order to manufacture runs.

(1) The lead off hitter must have a high OBP (average plus walks). The league leaders last year only had an OBP of .416. The lead off hitter must not just have speed, but base running skills (stolen bases and taking the extra base).
(2) The number 2 hitter must be a very disciplined contact hitter. His objective is to get the lead off man to third base with one out or less (stolen base + sacrifice/fielder choice or hit and run). This hitter must be able to hit to the opposite field, work a pitch count, have excellent bunting skills and protect the runner on first.
(3) The number 3 hitter must be a high contact, fly ball batter. For if the two players in front of him have done their jobs correctly, there would be a runner on third with one out. He is not the team's home run power, but someone who can get a runner home from third by any means (sac fly, suicide squeeze, ground out to right side, base hit).
(4) The clean up hitter is the last insurance policy to get a run home with 2 outs. He must be a high average hitter with good clean, line drive contact (hopefully gap power) that can get a solid base hit to score a runner from second or third.
(5) The 5th hitter is the final batter in the scoring zone. This should be the team's best power hitter. If it gets to this point, there would be two outs and at least one runner on base (2 if no one scored). This is your Earl Weaver scoring chance.

The bottom of your order can also manufacture a run:
(6) The 6th hitter would be the team's second best lead off man.
(7) The 7th hitter would be the team's second best disciplined contact hitter.
(8) The 8th hitter would be a player that could get the ball in play to score a runner from third with one out.

Under this system, manufacturing a run costs two productive outs. With 27 outs in a game, a team has 18 productive out chances. If a team can convert on 50% of those opportunities, that would be 9 runs per game (RPG). 40% success rate would be approximately 7 RPG.

It is more likely that the top of the order would have the best scoring chances. The top 4 in the order would get 4 to 5 chances to bat per game. So they have an opportunity to manufacture 4 or 5 runs per game. In 2011, MLB teams averaged 4.28 RPG. A team built to manufacture 4.5 RPG would be highly likely to be over .500.

The top of the order in a manufactured run line-up would put more pressure on the opponent's pitcher and defense. Pitchers pitch differently when there is a runner on first, especially one that can steal bases. A runner in motion puts the defense in motion, which creates gaps in a defense that a good contact hitter can exploit.

A team built to manufacture runs is a contradiction to present pro baseball theory. It requires skills that are not used very often in major league games: looking to walk, stealing bases, giving yourself up to advance a runner, plate discipline, contact hitting to appropriate field, bunting, and base running skills. All those skills were called "fundamentals" when children first learned the game at an early age. By the time prospects reach the majors, most of these fundamentals are rusty or lost. And veterans don't practice them because they are professionals who have made it to the Big Show. And managers would meet huge resistance from players who want personal stats as much as team victories.

JAI MILLER ON THE MOVE

2012-01-03T13:39:00.003-06:00

MLBTR reports that the Baltimore Orioles acquired outfielder Jai Miller from the Athletics for cash considerations. Orioles executive Dan Duquette said in a press release, "Jai Miller has the power, speed, base stealing skills and good athletic ability to be an asset in our outfield as he competes for a spot on our ballclub this spring." The San Francisco Chronicle reports that Orioles paid only $45,000.

Miller, 26, hit .276/.368/.588 with 32 home runs, 88 RBI and 16 SB in AAA in 2011. He spent most of his time in center and right field.

We highlighted Jai Miller as a cheap, risk free option for the Cubs in this blog's first post. At the time, the A's had put the AAA OF on waivers hoping to reclaim him, which they did. Now, with later roster move considerations, the A's trade Miller to the O's for cash. So, in essence, the Cubs had two inexpensive ways to bolster their roster with a power hitter, but passed.

With the Cubs devoid of power hitters on the roster, and reserve outfielders of only Reed Johnson and Dave Sappelt, Miller would have been at least a spring training option to be a fourth outfielder and insurance if David DeJesus' performance downfall in 2011 was not an anomaly but a serious trend.

WHITE SOX LAUNDRY

2012-01-03T11:06:00.000-06:00

GM Kenny Williams is in the process of cleaning house. Ozzie Guillen has been spun out of town to the Marlins, and replaced by a manager who will listen to the GM, Robin Ventura, who has zero managerial experience.

Williams surprised many by trading his closer, Santos, to the Blue Jays for a good, 22 year old pitching prospect. Williams further surprised when he sent back reliever Jason Frasor back to the Jays for two low minor pitching prospects (one good, one not so good). Then feeling good about that, Williams finally traded RF Carlos Quentin to the Padres for two low minor league pitching prospects (one good, one not so good). Clearly, a pattern is developing here: trade for low level prospects and cut the payroll for 2012. Williams has pared $34 million off the 2011 payroll, which in a long recession and announced ticket price reductions, is a prudent course. But the cleaning of payroll is not over; rumors have it Williams wants to dump reliever Thorton ($12 million owed for 2 years) and starter Floyd ($16 million/2 years). Since 4th starter free agents are commanding $10 million, Floyd could be moved to a contender by the trade deadline.

But the real trading chip for Williams was power hitting RF Quentin. As the off-season began, a good match for a trade partner would have been the Atlanta Braves, who were looking for a power hitting right handed outfielder. And the Braves put it out there that starting pitcher Jair Jurrjens and second baseman Martin Prado were available. It would have been a good match to send Quentin (and Gordon Beckman and prospect/cash) to Atlanta for the Jurrjens and Prado, who would be two position upgrades for the Sox. But the teams were never linked in any trade discussions. (The Rockies were looking for a package deal with the Braves, but it stalled.)

Even the Cubs were not in the discussion, which can only be explained by the fact that the team cannot take on the salaries of Jurrjens and/or Prado, who would be huge upgrades for the Cubs. At the time, the Cubs had Colvin, LeMathieu and could toss in pitching prospects such as Carpenter or McNutt, to make the deal. The Braves have a surplus of young pitching so Jurrjens, who had an injury last season but is still has All Star potential, was available. The Braves price may be too high for any team.

THE ERROR ON NO DEFENSE

2011-12-30T08:49:00.002-06:00

In politics, the term is called "spin." Candidate handlers tout explanations to the media to get a favorable reaction in the press. In baseball, the same management spin is used to propagandize organizational moves as being needed to great.

When Epstein and Hoyer made their first collective moves, a large portion of the fan base was supportive. However, the key explanation on why they acquired David DeJesus and Ian Stewart is wrong. They said they acquired these two players to improve overall team defense. This statement was to direct attention away from the fact that both DeJesus and Stewart were coming off career WORST seasons.

The Cubs made their point that the team had to upgrade their defense in order to be competitive. But how important is defense at the major league level?

Tampa Bay led the majors in fielding percentage at .988 (committing only 73 errors). The median team, Detroit, was 15th with 103 errors or fielding percentage of .983. Dead last was the Cubs, committing 134 errors for a .978 fielding percentage. The difference between the Rays and Cubs is a mere .010 (one percent).

The minimum differential between the best team and the worst team is a mere fraction. The reason is simple: pro athletes can catch and throw the baseball once they hit the majors. There is no substantial difference between 25 man rosters over a season. And from the average, the Cubs were only .005, or one-half of one percent worse.

The perception was that the Cubs made errors at the wrong time and cost them games. Let us test this thesis:

In 2011, 8.6 percent of the runs scored in the majors were "unearned." The MLB team average for runs scored was 694. 694 times .086 equals approximately 60 unearned runs/season for an average team. If you divide 60 errors over 162 games, you get .370 unearned runs/game.

The MLB average for team errors was 102. 102 divided by 162 games equals .630 errors/game.

The ratio between E/G to UNR/G is .587, or 58.7 percent of the errors created an unearned run.

Based upon this error to unearned run ratio, the Cubs made 134 errors times .587 equals 78.65 or an expected 79 unearned runs charged to the Cubs in 2011. However, the actual runs allowed (756) minus actual earned runs allowed (690) equals only 66 unearned runs. This is 16.45 percent below the expected average.

Therefore, the Cubs "poor" defense did not lead to more unearned runs being scored.

The Cubs new players were labeled as improvements to "increase defensive" play. This is also not true. A comparison of last season's fielding statistics will show:

DeJesus RF Oak .983                 replaces Fukudome RF   .987
              OF Oak . 984                               Colvin RF    .987 (all OF .991)
DeJesus is an average fielder, while Fukudome and Colvin were both above average outfielders.

Stewart 3B Colo .929                replaces   A. Ramirez 3B .953
     (6 E in 85 chances)                                 (14 E in 298 chances)
Stewart and Ramirez were both below average fielders, but Ramirez was .024 better.

So, DeJesus and Stewart are not defensive upgrades over last year's Cub players.

And the final point, fans were told that "defense" wins championships. World Series champion St. Louis made 116 errors and ranked 27th with a .982 fielding percentage. Pitching and hitting are more important than defense because the major league differential between teams is so small to not be consequential over a season.

HOW TO CONSTRUCT A PITCHING STAFF

2011-12-29T11:06:00.002-06:00

This article is a theory on how to construct (not build) a major league pitching staff. It does not follow the sabermetrics of wins over replacement value, but reverts to the basics of the game itself.

The only true measure of each game is the final score. The whole purpose of baseball is to score more runs than your opponent. The simple fact is that during a course of a season, you need to be in a position to hold your opponent to less runs scored than your offense produces on average. If you score more runs than allowed on average, your club will be competitive (above .500).

You have to look at the basics of a season. Each team plays 162 games. Each normal game is set to last 9 innings. Therefore, on average, a team must have its pitching staff throw 1458 innings/season.

Modern team construction has each team with a five man starting rotation. And given the nature of pitch counts, injuries and a liberal definition of a quality start, most teams have a total pitching staff of 11 or 12 pitchers. The Cubs have been more apt to carry 12 pitchers and 5 position/bench players. So in a 162 game schedule, the five starting pitchers are expected to make 32.4 starts (lets round down to 32).

The current definition of a quality start is set too high. With the 2011 MLB staff average of 3.94 ERA, a "real" quality start should be defined as follows:
1 ER/5 IP = game ERA of 1.80, which is excellent.
2 ER/6 IP = game ERA of 3.00, which is very good.
3 ER/7 IP = game ERA of 3.85, which is just below the MLB average which is slightly better than the norm.

If you want a very good pitching staff, let's assume 6 quality innings pitched per start. 32 starts times 6 IP = 192 IP/ starter. Therefore, you starters should be able to handle 960 IP during the season (192 IP x 5). That is 65.8 percent of the innings needed to be played. That leaves the rest of the pitching staff to consume 498 IP.

The next elements of innings pitched is the end of game. Modern baseball has become more specialized as the starters are no longer expected to pitch complete games. The roles of the set up man (8th inning) and the closer (9th inning) have become standard operating procedure. But you do not want to overuse either role player. If you plug in 60 IP for the closer and the set up man, that is 120 IP off the 498 IP remaining. That leaves a total of 378 innings for the middle relievers to consume during a course of a season.

Middle relievers are considered "failed" starters. They are used to pitching long stretches during their career and have to adapt to the up and down daily call. However, if your team has 5 middle relievers to divide the work load, that equates to only 75 2/3 IP per reliever. Over a 24 week season, that means an average relief pitcher would throw 3 1/3 IP per week.

There is no current stat besides the nebulous "hold" for middle relievers. Instead of a quality start, we can look to a "quality week" for middle relievers as a benchmark for success. If over the reliever's weekly work load of 3 1/3 IP, he gives up 1 ER, that would be a weekly ERA of 2.70, which would be excellent, a "quality" week. If he gives up 2 ER, his weekly ERA would be 5.40, which would be horrible. This demonstrates the paper thin margin of error for the middle relievers on a baseball staff. A general manager would need to find 5 pitchers who are each capable of giving up 24 earned runs or less to have a quality middle relief bullpen.

So a season's work load can be divided as follows:
Starters: 960 IP
Middle Relievers: 378 IP
Set Up Man: 60 IP
Closer: 60 IP
Total IP: 1458

In 2011, the Seattle Mariners scored the least amount of runs (556). That means the M's averaged only 3.43 runs/game in offense. The league averages for runs scored was 723 for the AL, 668 for the NL and 694 for MLB.

In 2011, the Cubs scored 654 runs, below all league averages. The Cubs runs per game average (RPG) was 4.03. The NL Central RPG average was St. Louis 4.70, Cincinnati 4.53, Milwaukee 4.45, Houston 3.80, Pittsburgh 3.76.

By contrast, average runs allowed were as follows: AL: 717 R (656 ER); NL: 673 R (615 ER); MLB: 694 (634 ER). (Note: 8.6 percent of runs scored in the majors last season were "unearned.")

In the NL Central, team ERA was as follows: Milwaukee 3.63, St. Louis 3,74, Pittsburgh 4.04, Cincinnati 4.16, Cubs 4.33, Houston 4.54.

The RPG/ERA differential can be calculated as follows:
St. Louis: 0.96
Milwaukee: 0.82
Cincinnati: 0.38
Pittsburgh: (0.28)
Cubs: (0.30)
Houston: (0.78)

The RPG/ERA ratio almost mirrors the final standings:

Milwaukee: 0.82 -- 96 wins
St. Louis: 0.96 -- 90 wins
Cincinnati: 0.38 -- 79 wins
Pittsburgh: (0.28) -- 72 wins
Cubs: (0.30) -- 71 wins
Houston: (0.78) - - 56 wins

The numbers show that a team really needs to have a RPG/ERA ratio of 0.40 + to get to 81 wins (.500). To get 81 wins, using the NL RPG of 4.12 less the .40 ratio, a pitching staff ERA needs to be 3.72 or 603 earned runs.

We already calculated that a quality middle relief corps should only give up 24 ER/season or 120 in total. 603- 120 = 483 ER remaining. The closer and set up man should have an ERA of 3.00 or less, which would equate to 20 ER/each or 40 total. 483 -40 = 443 ER remaining. If you divide that by the five starters, they each can give up 88.6 ER in the season. This calculates to a starter ERA of 4.15, which is above all the league ERA staff averages and above our quality start ERA.

So what is the bottom line in this exercise?

You can construct a viable pitching staff in the NL Central with:
Five starters with an ERA of 4.15;
Five middle relievers with ERAs of 2.85; and
Two end of game relievers with ERAs of 3.00.

It is interesting to note that a team can have a starting staff of average pitchers and closers and still be competitive. However, if each middle reliever adds one additional ER/week, their ERAs soar to 5.70. The RPG/ERA ratio changes from a .500 competitive ratio of .0.40 to only 0.16 which is an approximate 73 win season at best. The middle relievers are the key bridge to an overall pitching staff's success.

TRADING CHIPS

2011-12-28T15:46:00.000-06:00

Cub President Theo Epstein has gone on the record that his move of trading "assets" for
more assets is not over with the Sean Marshall deal.

But what real "trading" chips do the Cubs still have on their roster?

1. Matt Garza, starting pitcher, two years left of control, arb eligible, Cubs #1 starter, projects to #3 starter with contending teams. Garza may be the last ace in the hole for the Cubs to deal for 2 pitchers and 2 prospects (hopefully a third base and first base power hitter). The type of pitcher you would get in return would be a #4 type (like Travis Wood), with a AAA ready pitcher. Trading Garza would also further dump payroll, something which is more than apparent under this new administration.

2. Carlos Zambrano, starting pitcher, one year left at $18 million, Cubs headcase, projects as #3 starter on contending teams. Z has worn out his welcome in Chicago, and everyone in the league knows it. So there will be no line of takers for a pitcher that may be past his prime, physically and mentally. Some think Miami with friend Ozzie Guillen would be the perfect landing spot, but the Marlins already spent big money on Mark Buehrle and other free agents. Even with quality pitching in short supply, there won't be any takers unless the Cubs eat 75% or more of Z's salary. In return, you may get a low prospect or two so it may not pay to trade him, since there are no AAA Cub pitchers capable of starting in 2012.

3. Marlon Byrd, centerfielder, one year left on deal. Byrd's contract is not that hard to swallow for a team looking for a veteran back up outfielder. And that is what Byrd's production tells other teams; back-up role player. Therefore, there will be no great prospects in return in trading Byrd. He would have to be packaged with other players in order to get some viable prospects in return. He should be moved because he is blocking Brett Jackson, the only Cub farmhand in Baseball America's top 100 prospects.

4. Geo Soto, catcher, still under club control. The majors are devoid of power hitting catchers. Soto's skills are diminishing with more nagging injuries. He is at the point of his best trade value. The Cubs have two catching prospects (Castillo and Clevenger) who are major league ready. Trading Soto could land a major league player and a low prospect.

5. Brett Jackson, Iowa AAA outfielder. The only possible player the new management could consider keeping, but more likely would trade all the Hendry known prospects and re-set the rosters with their own signees. If that is the case, Jackson would return two or three lower prospects in return. This would also signal a much longer "rebuilding" time frame for the Cubs; something that Ricketts and season ticket holders would be denial about . . . the turnaround would be put off for an additional two or three years, or 2016. No one knows whether ownership can wait that long.

THE GHOST OF HENDRY

2011-12-27T09:12:00.000-06:00

The Cubs are operating in the ghostly shadow of Jim Hendry. The new Theo Trio have been underwhelming the fan base with all their moves so far this off-season. Some of these moves smack of the old GM playbook. Some are just rolling the dice and praying for a miracle comeback, also a chapter in the old Hendry playbook.

The last two additions are strange. The Cubs signed right-handers Manny Corpas, a former Rockies closer and Andy Sonnanstine a former Rays starter, to non-guaranteed contracts for the coming season. Financial terms weren’t disclosed but they are probably at one million or less.

Corpas, 29, is "hoping to rebound" after missing last season while recovering from Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. He has not been a good pitcher since 2007.

In 2010, he was 3-5 with 10 saves and a 4.62 ERA. He was in the Texas Rangers’ organization last season but didn’t pitch.

Sonnanstine, 28, has worked mostly in relief over the last two seasons, pitching to a 4.78 ERA in 116 2/3 innings. He will be auditioning for the fifth starter spot. He was 0-2 with a 5.55 ERA in 15 appearances last season with the Rays.

Sonnanstine is a fly ball pitcher and is very homer prone. The exact opposite of the type of starting pitcher you want at Wrigley Field.

So far, this off-season looks like a 1900 looping film reel of two steam locomotives colliding at full speed. The model is signing players coming off their career WORST season with the hope that he will be the comeback player of the year. Even scrappy players pulled off the league scrap heap are there for a reason.

But Epstein must be playing with a short stack of chips. Crane Kenney did that to Hendry, who told the media that he had no financial strings to sign players, when in private Kenney said he did not.

So it appears that the mandate is to keep the 2012 payroll under $100 million, which would be a 28% decline from last season. The only way to turn over a 71 win roster is to take a $3.1 million chip (Sean Marshall) and turn it into two $1 million markers (Corpas, Sonnanstine) and two $500,000 chips (T. Wood and Sappelt.)

FIRST BASE BLOCK

2011-12-26T09:24:00.000-06:00

A sly general manager in a position of need should look to other clubs to find a player to help improve his own roster. A good way to find a major league ready prospect to see who is being blocked from being promoted from AAA. A highly paid free agent signee or an All-Star at the current major league roster spot will block a AAA player at the same position from being promoted.

The Cubs have a void to fill at first base. Derek Lee held down that spot for years (effectively blocking the promotion of Cub prospects) and Carlos Pena held the position last season. But Pena is a free agent looking for a three year deal the Cubs cannot pay, so the team needs to fill that important spot in the order.

Early in the post season, the discussion of Theo Epstein's compensation with Boston (and the possibility of a trade to make amends) led us to find that the Red Sox have a AAA first base prospect who had fallen out of favor: Lars Anderson.

Anderson, 24, AAA stats: 14 HR, 78 RBI, 5 SB .265 BA .791 OPS .992 Fielding %

He fits the Epstein criteria of being a young player. Anderson will be blocked at first base and DH spot in Boston in 2012.

The next name were heard of was Kendry Morales. After the Angels signed Albert Pujols, the Angels have a surplus of first basemen. However, Morales has been injured for the past two years and would be a risky investment.

Recently, the Padres made a big trade of their Number One starter to the Reds for prospects, including a first baseman. This led to the speculation that the Padres AAA first baseman, Antony Rizzo, was going to be blocked from a promotion in 2012.

Rizzo, 22, AAA stats: 26 HR 101 RBI 7 SB .331 BA 1.056 OPS .985 Fielding %

Again, Rizzo fits the Epstein model of being a young talent with upside potential.

But to pry an Anderson or Rizzo from their current teams would take a major deal. Such a deal would involve Matt Garza. Besides the Padres or Red Sox, the Yankees are also in the market for starters. The Yanks have Texiera at first for the long term, so their AAA first baseman is Jorge Vazquez.

Vazquez, 29 AAA stats: 32 HR, 93 RBI, 0 SB, .262 BA, .830 OPS , .992 Fielding %

Vazquez has the power numbers to be a first baseman, but the negative is that he is 29 years old. After a certain point, players that have not been promoted by this age get labeled "AAAA players."

However, when you look at these three blocked prospects, the Cubs have their own home solution who had better stats than any of them: Bryan LaHair.

LaHair, 29, AAA stats: 38 HR 109 RBI, 2 SB, .331 BA OPS 1.070, .992 Fielding %

Considering that the Cubs have no power hitting back up first baseman on the roster, any of these prospects could be viable alternatives or bench players in 2012.

THE POST TRIBUNE REBUILD

2011-12-24T09:32:00.022-06:00

When Tom Ricketts overpaid for the Cubs from the bankrupt Chicago Tribune, he made several key mistakes, foremost was the retention of the current team management. Jim Hendry and his corporate overlords in the Tribune Tower viewed the Cubs as merely a production company to fill entertaining programming slots on the television or radio station properties. The plan was to spend money like a sit-com to be "competitive" enough to draw enough fans (ratings) to sustain The Brand.

It was okay to give Alfonso Soriano an insane player contract because the Cubs were drawing 3 million fans and had a national cable television audience. It wasn't the team executives money; it was just numbers on a conglomerate's balance sheet. It was just like the feasts and greed just before the Fall of the Roman Empire: quaint little Wrigley Field had been transformed into the largest yuppie spring break in the summer tavern. Baseball was secondary to the party atmosphere in the bleachers. As any saloon keeper will tell you, alcohol is more profitable than theater ticket sales.

The Tribune minions never used the term "rebuild" during its ownership tenure that began in 1981. The corporate executives brought in a baseball man, Dallas Green, to re-tool the organization. Green brought in the Phillies way, and was turning the team from the lovable loser label into a contender until he began to clash with the corporate executives in the Tower. It always seemed that someone outside of baseball circles knew better. The Tribune board used to stash near retiring executives to the kid's table called the Cubs to be the team president (which should have been merely an honorary title) to do little until retirement benefits kicked in. With no baseball knowledge, but a desire to keep the park filled, the Tribune kept writing checks for Hendry to spend on stop gap free agents to keep the team competitive. Meanwhile, the minor league system swelled with career minor leaguers blocked from an opportunity to be promoted or noticed by the team.

And that is what Ricketts inherited: an old minor league system of 28 plus year old AAAA talent and a serious amount of deadwood major league no-trade contracts for underperforming old veterans. Instead of sweeping clean the entire house on day one, Ricketts left the management crew in tact, which continued the same philosophy until the payroll budget burst the $150 million mark and the team crashed and burned in the playoffs and fell from grace in 2011.

Ricketts has slowly turned the corner (possibly by accident). Attendance fell, player production fell, losses mounted both in the standings and financially; change was on the horizon. Ricketts obsession with the Red Sox made him hire Theo Epstein and his band of merry young executives (Hoyer and McLeod) to remake the Cubs into the image of the Red Sox Way. Epstein was in charge when the Red Sox won two World Series for a starved fan base (even though the team foundation for the first championship was done by former GM Dan Duquette, now the Orioles new GM). Winning over the fan base with the reputation of Epstein & Company was a media coup.

The question is how long will be the media honeymoon.

It may not be as long as people would have hoped; the initial plan was to have Epstein "overpay" draft choices (especially those high schooler first round picks with signability issues) to bolster the number of prospects in the system. For example, the White Sox do the opposite and hardly spend on draft choices ($2-4 million) while last year the Cubs (under Hendry) spent nearly $12 million in signing bonus contracts, giving later round picks first round money in order to sign. This is what Epstein was going to do next June, until the new collective bargaining agreement effectively outlawed the practice.

The slow scramble to find a Plan B has been a cumbersome process for Epstein and Hoyer. It is clear they have no real affection for the Hendry prospects in the minor league system. It is also clear that they have little to work with on the major league roster. At the winter meetings, it was reported that the Cubs would not be big players in the free agent market because the Cubs "were out of money." There is probably great truth to that statement since when Daddy Ricketts spent the family money on the purchase of Tom's hobby horse, the Cubs, he said that no further money would be invested in the team. In other word, the Cubs had to pay for itself going forward. That was hard to do with a huge debt service on the purchase, a high payroll of $140 million, a bad economy, a fan base that turned to no-shows for the last two months of the season, and declining ratings to match the slide in the standings. So the old way of buying free agents to stem the tide and hover around a "competitive" .500 club was out the window, too.

So the snail crawl to find a Plan C was a mental gizzard grinder for Cubs fans in the first weeks of the hot stove league. The new young genius in charge of the Cubs was already painted himself into a corner with high expectations and little tools to change the situation. It is now apparent that the new Cubs three-headed-monster (Epstein-Hoyer-McLeod) are trying to turnover both the major league and minor league rosters as quickly as possible with their own "players." They have definitively gone to the bargain basement used player bin to patch together an ugly quilt for 2012.

The real anticipation for the new regime would be their first big move. It came as a dud in the minds of many fans: the signing of free agent OF David DeJesus. DeJesus was coming off a career WORST season. The team said they liked his defense, but he lacked power and RBI production throughout his career.

Then, some fans decided to give management a break and wait for the first big trade. It came as another dud: the Cubs sent Tyler Colvin and D.J. LeMahieu to the Colorado Rockies for Ian Stewart and Casey Weathers.

With the loss of Aramis Ramirez at third, Stewart's numbers are extremely weak. He only .156 with zero homers in 122 at-bats with the Rockies last season. He was sent to the minors during the season, and now says he had a wrist injury. (Cub fans know wrist injuries do not heal quickly and have multiple season issues; example, Derek Lee). It appears that the Cubs were looking at Stewart's inflated 2009 numbers (25 HRs) and hoping that he could rebound with a change of scenery. A change of scenery does not change a flawed swing or a wrist injury.

The same holds true for Weathers, who was a first round pick of the Rockies in the 2007 draft. The 26-year-old reliever has a 4.20 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in four minor-league seasons but showed potential before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2009. He has a real control problem and is thought of by major league scouts as "a project."

Hendry used to collect injured pitchers in a MASH unit of "rehab" projects that never panned out. But it was a way to keep signing veterans with an alleged track record to keep the heat off poor talent evaluations and the lack of prospects contributing on the major league club.

So, the Cubs continued the roster turnover with a clear move of going cheaper and collecting bodies. The trade of Sean Marshall to the Reds for a starter with a severe sophomore slump and two minor leaguers shows that Epstein is now in full "rebuild" mode even though his owner is in complete denial. Marshall, who statistically the best left handed relief pitcher the last two seasons, goes to the Reds for left handed starter Travis Wood and prospects Dave Sappelt and Ronald Torreyes.

Marshall has emerged as one of the league’s elite relievers since moving to the bullpen full time in 2010, going 6-6, wth 34 holds in 150 innings of work with a 2.45 ERA and 169/42 K/BB ratio.

The key to the deal was financial. Marshall was set to make $3.1 million in 2012 plus an expensive contract extension. Wood is being paid the league minimum, and at age 24 is under team control through 2016. Neither Torreyes nor Sappelt were among the Reds’ top 10 prospects according to Baseball America. Sappelt is a short, scrappy player with some speed and is projected as a major league bench outfielder while Torreyes, at 5'9" 140 lbs, is a 19-year-old slick fielding second baseman looked good in Single-A last season. Some believe Torreyes could be a Dustin Pedoria type player; others think small compact gritty players like ex-Cubs Ryan Theriot or Mike Fontenot, for whom the Cubs let go for a reason: lack of production.

It is one thing to get a bunch of scrappy players, but another to field an entire major league team with scraps. Season ticket holders are already complaining that the 2012 club is going to be awful, and awful does not sell tickets.

This is acknowledged now by Epstein as Plan C. From finding bottom-out players like DeJesus and Stewart with the hope of a bounce back season, the Cubs are trying to "buy low" and get higher unexpected returns. The team is also now hellbent on trading any valuable "assets" into more "assets," i.e. trading a quality relief pitcher for three other players. As Epstein said at the winter meetings to other GMs, he'd listen to offers on "anybody," he meant it. Starting pitcher Matt Garza appears to be next in the conga line out the door in a three or four for one swap.

If the Cubs do nothing further this off-season, the 2012 payroll is projected to drop 28 percent to $98 million from $135 million. This is the beginning of a significant change in corporate philosophy; the Cubs were labeled as a big market, big spending club. Now, they are falling back to a small market value mentality.

Epstein is rolling the dice on out-of-favor players during his honeymoon period. He is hoping against hope that if he fills the roster with comeback of the year candidates, some will actually play well enough to surprise some people. But how surprised will fans be when they unwrap (player) packages bought at the dollar store?

And this is shaping up not to be a one season lull. The only upside prospect so far, Torreyes, is an A ball player. That means he will need three more years to get major league ready. And Epstein's first June draft will not yield a crop of players for at least two or three years. So the statements that the Cubs will be competitive in 2013 are misguided at best. Look at the Epstein way: stock piling A or AA players means that it is going to take three years to get to the major league roster fully turned over, if at all. That means 2015 and not 2013. And if you keep getting bottom feeder placeholder players at the major league level (Stewart, DeJesus) the club is not going to get progressively better at time soon.

Epstein & Company really need to find gold nuggets in the manure of other team's run-off. They have to act faster and with more desperation or they will lose out on chances to improve the stale product.

You really need to cull the wire to plug in guys with at least some POTENTIAL in the near term. Example, the A's just put on waivers AAA RF Jai Miller, who hit .276 with 32 HR 88 RBI and 14 SB last season. The Chronicle reports the team hopes he clears waivers so he can be back in spring training and make the team. (The A's had to make the roster move due to the players received in the Gio trade). This is the type of player the Cubs should claim - - - some one who has been blocked by his current team and who can be given an opportunity to win a job. And given the fact the Cubs current roster is like the Bears (no back ups at key positions), Miller would be insurance if DeJesus gets hurt or just plain sucks again. Reed Johnson or Sappelt are not full time starters. Plus, who else besides Soriano or LaHair can hit a home run on this team?

If Epstein is reincarnating the Go-Go White Sox of the late 1950s, defense and speed, that won't win at Wrigley when the opponent is blasting homers onto Waveland and the Cubs have no answer. None of the moves so far has excited the fan base.

Besides, signing a guy like Miller costs the team nothing but the major league minimum if he makes the club! That would make Ricky happy happy!!!

But there is nothing to make die-hard Cub fans happy. This rebuilding plan is going to be a long term struggle against the odds of having stop gap, fill in players hoping for career comeback seasons to field a competitive team. The Cubs are not better today by the mere subtraction of Pujols in St. Louis or Fielder or Braun (possible 50 game suspension) in Milwaukee. The free spending Tribune days are over. It is possible that the second coming of the P.K. Wrigley clueless and cheap era is here.