February 27, 2012

GARZA TRADE REVISITED

Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune laments on the anniversary of the big Matt Garza Cubs deal with the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Cubs sent five prospects to the Rays, for starting pitcher Matt Garza.

Outfielders Sam Fuld, Brandon Guyer and catcher Robinson Chirinos all made it onto the Rays 2011 roster during the season. Shortstop Hak-Ju Lee and right-hander Chris Archer are listed as Top 100 prospects in all of baseball.


Garza won 10 games for the Cubs last season. He will make $9.5 million in 2012, and most likely more in 2013, his final year of arbitration before free agency.


Rogers reports that the Rays are extremely happy with the deal.

"I don't think any of those guys have done things we didn't expect them to," Rays general manager Andrew Friedman said. "It's not like any of them had a year where they just blew the doors down. They're all good players, they play the game fundamentally well and that fits with our organization. They're part of the depth that we believe in, and that's why we made that trade."

The question is asked whether the Cubs should have made that trade. Fans are about 50-50.
Former GM Hendry made the deal because he was under the false belief that the Cubs were just one pitcher away from winning the NL Central and returning to the post season.

Five prospects for Garza may be hard to swallow when Epstein is trying to re-stock the barren minor league inventory.

Garza went 10-10, 3.32 ERA in 31 starts. He had a good WHIP of 1.258 and a K/BB ratio of 3.13.
But on a poor Cub team, he was not a difference maker.

Top line starters are hard to find. Durable front line starters are even harder to find. Garza fits that mold, so far. So from a evaluation perspective, one has to give up a lot in a trade to receive a lot in return.

And the Cubs thought they were dealing from surplus: Lee was going to be blocked by Castro; Chirinos was being blocked by Soto, Castillo and Clevenger; Fuld was not in their long term outfield bench plans; and Guyer could be blocked in the future by Brett Jackson. But what has happened is that the Cubs have a diluted major league bench because these prospects are no longer in the pipeline.

So a possible idea is to flip Garza this season for a package of prospects. It will be more difficult because last year was the ideal time to make a Garza for prospects deal. Garza has a hefty salary and is only under 2 years control to a new team. Unless you are a Boston, or Yankees who will commit $75 million for an extension, the market for Garza is limited.