March 29, 2018

DODGING A BULLET

Sometimes, the best move is not to make a move.

As Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports writes, one of the biggest spring training stories is the one about the "hottest" can't miss free agent to hit the market being a gigantic disappointment.

"Shohei Otani did not have a “great outing” in his final start of the preseason,  unless the definition of great outing has changed since the calendar turned. One official who saw it summed it up as: “He looked pretty much like he’s looked all spring.” The struggles of Otani since he arrived stateside have been glaring. There are plenty of ways to describe his lack of fastball velocity and difficulty commanding the pitch Saturday against a coterie of minor leaguers. * * * *  Lost amid the fact that (he) looks helpless at the plate (3 for 28 in games) and talented but raw on the mound (more runs allowed than outs registered) is that he remains an incredible talent who is under team control for the next six years  at enormously depressed prices."

Gone are the Babe Ruth, two-way player, comparisons.

Otani may turn it around . He could be just having culture shock. Or he has to get up to speed to MLB players and coaching styles. 

But it is hard to believe the observations in spring training were so far off from the glowing scouting reports that had all teams, especially Theo Epstein, wanting to sign this guy.

Lack of velocity on his fastball . . . . bad sign.
Lack of command on his pitches . . . really bad sign.
Looks hopeless at the plate . . .  horrible.

Just think that if the Cubs had signed Otani, there would have been no money left to sign Darvish. And Otani would have been like Jason Heyward, a big money contract that has to play some outfield. That would have pushed Ian Happ to AAA Iowa at the start of the season. It would have been a cascade of failure.

March 28, 2018

TOP SPENDERS

The Associated Press broke down this year's big spenders, i.e. the Usual Suspects.

The New York Yankees are on track to open the season this week with baseball's seventh-highest payroll, their lowest ranking since 1992.

The Boston Red Sox will top the major leagues at about $223 million, ending the Los Angeles Dodgers' four-year run as the top spender. San Francisco will be second at around $203 million, and the Chicago Cubs are set to be third at about $183 million.

The Dodgers and Washington Nationals will each be at approximately $180 million, and the Los Angeles Angels will be next at about $170 million. The Yankees will be at around $167 million — their lowest payroll since 2003.

 Most of these teams were at the top last year on the big spender list. So much so that most of the teams did not add very much "new" payroll above last year's total.

With the luxury tax at $197 million, the Red Sox and Giants are going to get hit with a surcharge (and be really hurt in 2019 if they are over the amount for a second year in a row). The Cubs, Dodgers and Nationals have only a marginal threshold to stay under the cap. Barring a significant injury, these clubs will stand pat during the season.

The Yankees are interesting because they have room to sign a valuable free agent left on the board (Greg Holland?) if the need arises in the near future. The Yankees lineup is powerful, even with the Bird injury. Even so, the prospect of the Yankees having $36 million more to spend in 2019 when Bryce Harper hits the open market will be a story line for this year.

Baseball has developed a harsh bell curve in salary structures. As the big teams continue to spend, the small market teams seem to have contracted their payrolls to the point where the union is crying foul. The Rays, Pirates and Marlins have been giving away veteran players in exchange for "controllable" year prospects (at major league minimum salaries.) The concept of the tear down rebuild has worked for the last two World Series champions, so the union cannot claim that that business model is flawed. However, the Marlins and Rays seem to be in perpetual rebuild mode.

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/business/national-business/article206913694.html#storylink=cpy

March 9, 2018

PROJECTED LINE UP

The Cubs will probably shift focus on the lead off spot for 2018.

With the Brewers having improved their offense, the Cubs still need to make sure their offense starts early and often.

Projected lineup:

1. Happ cf  (S)
2. Bryant 3b (R)
3. Rizzo 1b (L)
4. Contreras c (R)
5. Schwarber lf (L)
6. Russell ss (R)
7. Baez 2b (R)
8. Heyward rf (L)
9. Pitcher

If Maddon adopts a three-way outfield platoon:

Against right handers:

1. Happ cf  (S)
2. Bryant 3b (R)
3. Rizzo 1b (L)
4. Contreras c (R)
5. Schwarber lf (L)
6. Russell ss (R)
7. Baez 2b (R)
8. Heyward rf (L)
9. Pitcher

Against left handers:

1. Happ rf (S)
2. Bryant 3b (R)
3. Rizzo 1b (L)
4. Contreras c (R)
5. Schwarber lf (L)
6. Russell ss (R)
7. Baez 2b (R)
8. Almora cf (L)
9. Pitcher

If Schwarber cannot hit lefties, then pop Almora to bat #5 and slot Zobrist in #8 in RF.




March 7, 2018

TOP OF THE ORDER

In six spring training games, Ian Happ has owned the lead off spot. He is hitting .471 with 4 home runs, 7 RBI and .500 OBP.

In his rookie season, Happ hit .253 with 24 HR, 68 RBI, 8 SB and .328 OBP.

Maddon has been trying out Happ, Jason Heyward and Albert Almora in the lead off spot. Schwarber ha also been mentioned as a possible lead off man. It appears that Maddon wants an outfielder to lead off games.

But Happ has clearly drawn the attention of the media and fans. In comparison to Heyward, Happ's offensive production is far superior. In outfield defense, Heyward is much better with a .14 dWAR verus Happ's 0.0 dWAR. Heyward had a 2.3 WAR in 2017. Happ had a 1.8 WAR.

It may come down to which players will play the most in the outfield. The Cubs love Schwarber but can he be a consistent hitter against both right handed and left handed pitchers? Almora has been a bench player. Is he ready for a full time center field role?  Happ was a super sub playing multiple positions in the OF and second base. Will he take playing time away from Zobrist?

Since the lead off man is critical to getting the team off to a good start, it would appear Happ and Almora would share those duties. Whether they will platoon in CF is another question. It is possible that Happ could emerge as a full time starter by platooning with both Almora and a corner outfielder (Schwarber or Heyward).

The elephant in the room is Heyward's contract. But if make Heyward a defensive replacement, the person replacing him at the plate must be productive to off-set the decline in defensive WAR.

Since Happ is a switch hitter with power from both sides of the plate, he makes the most sense to match up against starting pitchers.  Against a right handed starter, the outfield could be Schwarber in left, Happ in center and Heyward in right. Against a left handed pitcher, the outfield could be Schwarber or Zobrist in left, Almora in center and Happ in the right.

Happ may be the most valuable asset Maddon has to use in 2018. While the team wants to give Heyward a full opportunity to correct his offensive problems, it should not be at the expense of Happ.