March 6, 2012

SURPLUS PITCHING

It is rare to find a major league club with excess starting pitching. The Nationals have found themselves in the midst of such a pleasant predicament.  Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman are the young starters on the staff. The Nats aggressively went out and traded for Gio Gonzalez and signed free agents Edwin Jackson and Chien-Ming Wang.


The Nats also have John Lannan, Yukieski Maya and Ross Detwiler in the mix for the 5th starter if one of the recent acquisitions falters.


So it would appear that the Nats have a surplus starter open for trade.



Lannan, a 27-year-old southpaw, posted a 10-13 record, with  3.70 ERA, 1.462 WHIP, a K/BB ratio of 1.39.  He had 54.1% groundball rate in 184 2/3 innings last year.  His career ERA is 4.00. He is comparable to Floyd Bannister in his career numbers.

Lannan will make $5 million this season. He's technically under team control through 2013, but if another typical season pushes him to the $7.5MM salary range for 2013. So if the Nats are going to deal him, now would be the time.

As the Cubs are found of saying, they look to obtain "assets." A left handed starting pitcher with an ERA of less than 4.00 that is under control for 2 seasons is a quality asset, especially for a contender.

The Cubs are in a payroll constraint because they are "rebuilding" (no matter what the owner says to the contrary). However, there is a way to make the deal: trade Byrd's $6.5 million salary for Lannan's $5 million. Washington is looking for a right handed hitting center fielder. By trading Byrd, it opens up CF for Brett Jackson, who would immediately fit either the #1 or #3 hole in the weak Cub batting order.

And you have to view such a deal from the question of whether Lannan would be an "upgrade" over the current 4th or 5th starter. The Cubs rotation of Garza, Maholm, Dempster, and T. Wood is pretty set. Lannan would be an upgrade from Volstad, Lopez, Samardzija, Coleman, or another walk on battling for the 5th starting spot.

It is a deal that makes sense which means it won't get done.