May 10, 2012

EXPECTATIONS

Bryce Harper has arrived for the Nationals, and people who have seen him play say "he's the real deal."

His quick rise through the minors is like the White Sox second baseman, Gordon Beckham.

Beckham quickly moved up the Sox minor league system. He only had 14 games in A ball and only 45 AA-AAA games in the year he was called up in 2009. His 2009 minor league season line was .326 BA, 4 HR 25 RBI .378 OBP.

When Beckham hit the majors, there was a cocky swagger to him. And he found instant success: in 103 games he hit .270, 14 HR, 63 RBI, 7 SB, .347 OBP.

White Sox fans were delighted with their Rookie of Decade.

It is one thing to play in the majors without any pressure of organizational or fan expectations. If you come in under the radar and make a big splash, people will take notice. Fast.

But ever since Beckham's rookie season, the expectations skyrocketed on the kid. So much so that he has never gotten back to his rookie season performance.  There is always a notion of a "sophomore slump" for players, who suddenly don't have to struggle to make the team but feel more pressure to perform.

Geo Soto was that way, too. He had a blow out rookie of the year season, but has struggled with his average, power numbers and nagging injuries for the past few seasons. Instead of being a cornerstone backstop of the future, Soto is becoming just an average catcher in the minds of the fans.

In 2011, Harper played 109 games in the minors. His stat line was good: .297 average, 17 HR, 58 RBI, 7 SB, .392 OBP. Now he is in the big shoe making his presence known in the Nationals lineup.

How well will Harper handle the expectations in Washington? If recent history is taken into account, it is not the rookie season that is the threshold, it is the seasons afterward.