August 1, 2012

SURPRISE MOVE

Maybe Ryan Dempster just wanted a better landing spot for a contender than the Atlanta Braves. He got it with the Texas Rangers, who have the players to continue to go deep in the post-season if their pitching holds up. Injuries to two starters made Texas make a move to find a quality arm for the pennant chase.



The Rangers acquired Dempster  for Class A minor league third baseman Christian Villanueva  and Class A minor league right-hander Kyle Hendricks.  

Dempster was drafted by the Rangers in the third  in 1995 but he was traded to the Marlins in 1996.  Converted from being a closer,  Dempster was a fairly consistent starter for the Cubs. Since  acquiring 10-and-5 rights, Dempster had to approve the trade to the Rangers, which in some respects was a surprise since all indications was he wanted to move to the Dodgers.

Despite a low win total, Dempster posted a 2.25 ERA with 7.2 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 in 104 innings with the Cubs this year.  He's earning $14MM -- nearly $5MM between now and the end of the season -- and will hit free agency this fall. It was clear that the Cubs would not tender him a contract at the end of the season, so there would be no compensation pick in the next draft. So the Cubs really needed to trade Dempster and receive something in return.

Villanueva, 21, has a .285/.356/.421 batting line in 425 plate appearances with Class A Myrtle Beach this year. The third baseman entered the 2012 season as the 100th-best prospect in MLB, according to Baseball America. He has a .286/.350/.438 batting line in four minor league seasons. However, the Rangers have another third base prospect, Mike Olt, which they believe is better than Villanueva. In a classic case of trading a prospect blocked at his position, the Rangers traded for Dempster, a proven commodity. 

The Cubs have been recently talking about shoring up the lack of depth in the minor league system, especially at third base. Villanueva shows some offensive power but has a weak fielding percentage at third base.  In some respects, he is in the mold of Cub minor leaguer Josh Vitters.

But the key to the deal is the pitching prospect. Hendricks, 22, has a 2.82 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 1.0 BB/9 in 130 2/3 innings over the course of 20 starts at Myrtle Beach. The 6'2" right-hander has 150 strikeouts and just 21 walks in 166 1/3 innings since being selected in the eighth round of the 2011 draft.

On paper, this looks like a good deal for the Cubs. The two prospects will take at least 3 to 4 years in the minor league development ranks before they have a chance to make the major league roster. Project late 2015. The Cubs front office has stressed that it wants to go young and acquire more "assets" under their control. The trade of four major leaguers for five minor league prospects is not quite the volume that most observers expected from the Cubs. And there were no immediate "impact" players in any of the Cub deals.

In fact, most writers believe the Cubs had a better deal with the Braves for Randall Delgado, a major league ready pitcher.