September 28, 2012

THE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE SEASON

The light at the end of the season may be a speeding locomotive.

As the Cubs need to play .500 ball to stave off 100 losses, a pace not season all season, the Cubs will continue to rack of unfortunate milestones.  For example, for the first time in club history, the Cubs have been swept on the road by all five NL West teams.

That is really, really hard to do yet alone fathom. But with ex-Cubs Colvin and LeMathieu pistol whipping Cub pitching in the last Colorado series, it may have been inevitable. 

What this season will give the Cubs will be most likely the Number Two draft choice next season. It is a protected draft choice, meaning that the Cubs can not lose their first round pick if they sign a free agent who has declined a qualifying offer from his old team.

It is doubtful that the Cubs will make a play for a marquee free agent. All signs point to a significant attendance drop for 2013. All signs point to the new front office remaining patient with their long term plan of developing Class A ball players. That means the Cubs will continue to struggle for the next three years or more.

Also, the Cubs with another 100 loss season, will be the first franchise in baseball to have three 100-loss seasons without winning a championship in between those low point seasons. A century of futility is what the Ricketts family bought; and a wary fan base not used to dynamic or premium pricing for a low quality product.

Demographically, Cub fans and White Sox fans are similar: same income levels, suburban Chicago homes, generational loyalty.  But Sox fans long ago tied their attendance to the team's performance. In seasons where the team was bad, attendance was bad. In years the team was great, attendance was very good. But this season, despite being in first place for 2 months in the summer, White Sox attendance lagged their record. It may be a sign of the metro economy: it is too expensive for even suburbanites to go to ball games.

It will be a hard sell at the Cub and White Sox conventions. The Cubs will try to put a pretty bow on a sack of burning dog poo. The White Sox may count on their young players, especially pitchers, to try to sell hope for the near future.