November 14, 2012

EPIC DEAL

The Blue Jays own website called the proposed deal "epic."

Blue Jays General ManagerAlex Anthopoulos has never been afraid to make the big deals, but the one with the Marlins suddenly catapults Toronto to near the top of the AL East.

Toronto's general manager appears to have orchestrated a 12-player deal with the reeling Miami Marlins that provides a major boost to the club's chances of reaching the postseason. In one quick strike, the Blue Jays filled their holes in the starting rotation and acquired an elite hitter to place at the top of their lineup.

The blockbuster trade was first reported by Foxsports.com and sees shortstop Jose Reyes, right-hander Josh Johnson, left-hander Mark Buehrle, catcher John Buck and utility player Emilio Bonifacio headed to the Blue Jays.

The demolition Marlins are to receive seven young players in return: shortstop Yunel Escobar, right-hander Henderson Alvarez, Cuban prospect Adeiny Hechavarria, outfield prospect Jake Marisnick, pitching prospects Anthony Desclafani and Justin Nicolino and veteran backup catcher Jeff Mathis.

The deal is pending player physicals and MLB approval of money to be exchanged between the teams.

Clearly, the Marlins have been in salary dump mode since their touted season in a new publicly financed stadium under a new world series pedigree manager Ozzie Guillen crashed and burned on take off. The small market Marlins suddenly spent huge sums on free agents such as Buerhle, Reyes, Heath Bell - - - cracking the $100 million payroll for the first time. But the team quickly fell to the bottom, and ownership was arguing with team executives at the end. The fire sale started before the end of last season with the trade of unhappy Hanley Ramirez to the Dodgers. Now, the completion of the dismantling of the team is apparent with the Blue Jays deal.

With the deal, the Blue Jays will take on upwards of $165 million in salaries. It's by far the highest guaranteed salary trade the Blue Jays have made during their existence in Major League Baseball.

Toronto was always interested in Reyes, who has five years remaining at a total of $96 million. He would give the Blue Jays a traditional leadoff hitter for the first time in recent memory and will allow the club to move third baseman Brett Lawrie down in the order.

Reyes is coming off a season in which he hit .287 with 11 homers and 57 RBIs in 160 games. He is just one season removed from winning the National League batting crown with a .337 average and would now play a pivotal role in Toronto's lineup by attempting to get on base for sluggers Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion.

The presence of Johnson and Buehrle in the deal would fill a couple of glaring holes in Toronto's starting rotation. The two proven arms would join Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero in the starting five, while J.A. Happ would become the early favorite to win the final spot.

Johnson has just one year and $13.75 million remaining on his contract and is set to hit free agency following the 2013 campaign. Last year, Johnson went 8-14 with a 3.81 ERA during a somewhat inconsistent campaign, but he has the type of potential to be a bonafide front-of-the-rotation starter. From 2009-2011, Johnson went 29-12 with a remarkable 2.64 ERA in 70 starts.

Buehrle, 33,  is the former White Sox ace. He is a consistent innings eater.  He signed a four-year free agent contract worth $58 million with the Marlins to follow his manager, Guillen, to Miami, but now finds himself relocating for the second time in just two years. Last season, Buehrle went 13-13 with a 3.74 ERA in 31 starts.

The Marlins are to receive quality prospects. Marisnick (No. 2) and Hechavarria (No. 7) were both ranked among the Blue Jays top 20 prospects by MLB.com, while DeSclafani would have been a candidate to crack that list in 2013.

Alvarez, 22,  was once considered one of Toronto's best pitching prospects, but he took a noticeable step back in 2012. He went just 9-14 with a 4.85 ERA and the lack of a consistent third pitch helped offset an otherwise overpowering fastball in the high 90s and a changeup combination.

The deal also provides a fresh start to Escobar, who  received a three-game suspension for a racial slur, which only added to the disappointment of a frustrating season that saw him hit just .253 in 145 games.  However, he is an above average defensive shortstop.

Mathis' inclusion in the deal had as much to do with Toronto's catching depth than anything else. The Blue Jays already have J.P. Arencibia entrenched as the club's starting catcher, while top prospect Travis d'Arnaud is waiting in the wings at Triple-A.

Buck could help the Blue Jays remain even more patient with d'Arnaud while backing up Arencibia, but there's an even stronger likelihood that Anthopoulos isn't done dealing and will eventually move another catcher. Or Buck could be moved in a trade to restock the Toronto farm system at a later time.

For the past couple of years, the Blue Jays front office talked at great length about the upside of Toronto's baseball market. President Paul Beeston envisioned one day of having a payroll around $150 million, but it always came with the caveat that attendance would have to increase first.
That finally happened in 2012, as Toronto increased its ticket sales by more than 3,000 per game. The Blue Jays ranked third in attendance with 2,099,663, which was their highest total since 2008.

Clearly, the Blue Jays are going "all in" in 2013 with the aging Yankees losing several players in the off-season and the Red Sox still in turmoil (after their blockbuster salary dump trade with the Dodgers). The Blue Jays now project to be #2 in the AL East behind the Tampa Bay Rays.