December 7, 2012

RULE 5 BARELY ALIVE

The last piece of business at the baseball winter meetings is the Rule 5 draft. The purpose of this draft is to allow teams to pick unprotected players wallowing in the minors and promote them to their major league roster for the next season.

The Cubs wasted a roster spot last season on Fendy Castillo, a 20 year Phillies pitcher,
unprotected in the Rule 5 draft. So the Cubs claimed him for $50k with the requirement that
he be on the major league roster all season. Castillo was not ready for major league service,
and got allegedly hurt. But since he was "active" for at least 90 days, the Cubs could keep him after the season. He will start 2013 in the minors. Even on a bad 2012 Cub team, using a 25 man roster spot for a player who is not ready for major league action is a waste.

Now, NOT learning their lesson, the Cubs took in this year's Rule 5 draft
Hendon Rondon, a 24 year old Indians pitcher, who only threw in 4 total games last season!!! In A/AA!!! A remarkable total of  7 innings in 2012!!!! Adding to the head scratch, Rondon has been in the minors for 6 years!!!

Oh, we will learn that he was limited to 7 IP by - - - (trumpet horns) "ongoing recovery from Tommy John reconstructive elbow surgery!"


But it gets stranger yet:

Rondon owns a career Minor League pitching record of 36-36 with a 3.88 ERA in 120 games/113 starts (587.0 IP, 593 H, 253 ER, 526 SO).  The Guatire, Venezuela native has been limited to 41.2 innings pitched the last three seasons since 2010 after undergoing a pair of right elbow surgeries.  He is currently pitching the Venezuelan Winter League for Caracas and has compiled six straight scoreless appearances since October 23rd.


So Rondon has not really pitched in THREE years, because he needed TWO surgeries. But the Cubs were so impressed with his less than 6 IP winter ball appearances to draft him. It seems like grasping at straws to draft a marginal AA pitcher who has had no development for 3 seasons due to two major surgeries to be a contributing member of one's bullpen.


Was there no better option?

Results of the 2012 Rule 5 Draft:
Acquiring teams;  former organizations in parentheses

Major League Phase
HOU: Josh Fields, RHP (BOS)
CHC: Hector Rondon, RHP (CLE)
COL: Daniel Rosenbaum, LHP (WAS)
MIN: Ryan Pressly, RHP (BOS)
CLE: Chris McGuiness, 1B (TEX)
MIA: Alfredo Silverio, OF (LAD)
BOS: Jeff Kobernus, 2B (WAS)
NYM: Kyle Lobstein, LHP (TB)
ARI: Starling Peralta, RHP (CHC)
PHI: Ender Inciarte, OF (ARI)
CWS: Angel Sanchez, INF (LAA)
BAL: T.J. McFarland, LHP (CLE)
TEX: Coty Woods, RHP (COL)
HOU: Nate Freiman, 1B (SD)
MIA: Braulio Lara, LHP (TB)


Triple-A Phase
HOU: Michael Burgess, OF (CHC)
MIN: Mark Sobowleski, 3B (TOR)
MIA: Tyler Kehrer, LHP (LAA)
BOS: Jack McGeary, LHP (WAS)
TOR: Sawyer Carroll, OF (SD)
SEA: Eric Farris, 2B (MIL)
SD: Diego Goris, 3B (KC)
PIT: Ethan Hollingsworth, RHP (KC)
PHI: Brendan Lafferty, LHP (KC)
LAD: Elevys Gonzalez, INF (PIT)
STL: Matt Cerda, 3B (CHC)
DET: Eliezer Mesa, OF (OAK)
LAA: Robert Widlansky, 1B (BAL)
BAL: Tom Boleska, RHP (PIT)
TEX: Marquez Smith, 3B (BOS)
OAK: Thomas Mendonca, 3B (TEX)
SF: Scott Shuman, RHP (TB)
CIN: Ryan Dennick, LHP (KC)
HOU: Cameron Lamb, RHP (SF)
BOS: Jon Bachanov, RHP (CWS)
TOR: Alvido Jimenez, RHP (CHC)
SD: Federico Castaneda, RHP (KC)
LAD: Hector Nelo, RHP (WAS)
STL: Jay Voss, LHP (DET)
OAK: Steven Hill, C (STL)
CIN: Michael Gilmartin, 2B (OAK)
TOR: Efrain Nieves, LHP (DET)


If we just look at the pitcher taken after Rondon for evaluation comparisons, Rosenbaum pitched for the Nationals AA team, going 8-10, 3.94 ERA in 26 starts, throwing 155.1 IP, 99 K, 39 BB, 1.307 WHIP. Rosenbaum, a left handed pitcher, is 25 years old. In his four minor league seasons, his career totals are 26-24, 2.84 ERA, 1.190 WHIP.

From a pure analytical perspective, Rosenbaum is a much better "immediate" prospect than Rondon.

The Rule 5 draft is supposed fill one's major league roster without having to make a trade or expensive free agent signing. It is really filling the 25th man on the roster. The White Sox took an Angels SS, Angel Sanchez, who has 586 major league games, as a bench player in 2013. That makes perfect logical sense since the White Sox traded some of their utility infielders last season in order to shore up their pitching staff.


So what if Rondon is a bust? It will only cost the Cubs $25,000. The real question is what do the Cubs talent evaluators see in such a move.


And on a final note, the Cubs "lack of minor league talent" apparently did not deter other teams from selecting four players from the Cubs system (five, if you count former Cub 3B prospect Marquez Smith). The Cubs "woeful" farm system led the league in other teams picks: RHP Peralta, OF Burgess, RHP Jimenez and AAA third baseman, Cerda, who went to the Cardinals.