May 24, 2013

PLAN B

A report indicates that the Astros are talking to "a hitter" as they prepare to select the first pick in the June baseball draft.  A hitter could mean San Diego 3B Kris Bryant, the best power hitter in the draft, or one of the two highly regarded high school outfielders. Depending on the time line of the Astros front office (now to be run by Nolan Ryan's son), a high impact long term position player makes sense.

If Bryant is selected by the Astros, it would mean that the top two pitchers in the draft are too expensive for the risk-reward analysis. This would mean Bryant would not be there for the Cubs,who select second.

Conventional wisdom is that the Cubs will have a choice of the two pitchers, Appel or Gray.

But for my money, the Cubs pressing need is to fill the organization hole at third base. If Bryant is gone, the second best college third baseman is North Carolina's Colin Moran. Moran, 21, is the 6'4" nephew of former major leaguer B.J. Surhoff. Moran was ACC player of the year. He does not have the power of Bryant, but he is scouted as a better defensive player. This season he hit .358, 13 homers, a .612 slugging percentage and 83 RBI.

Many draft boards have Bryant #5 and Moran #6 best overall players. The consensus is that Moran will be a top ten pick.

If Bryant is selected number one by Houston, my Plan B would have the Cubs select Moran.