December 11, 2013

TRADE ROUTES

Every since man moved across the land or sea to encounter other tribes, there has been trade. Trade routes were the building block of our modern civilization. The acquisition, exchange, purchase or theft of valuable things such as gold or spices is the key element in any trading platform.

Baseball is no different.

The basic elements of supply, demand, scarcity, condition and value are all part of the trade equation between general managers.

The Sun Times reports that the trade market for Jeff Samardzija is drying up because the Cubs are asking too high a price for him.

The puzzle pieces fit into fairly uniform patterns.

When trying to move a veteran on a bad or rebuilding team, the GM looks to find a trading partner who is close (in perception or reality) to winning a division or pennant. Teams on the cusp of a championship are more inclined to deal for a veteran commodity in order to win now, rather than wait to develop their own talent to fill a current need. A trade partner tries to exploit that need to win now to get as much in return as possible, such as top prospects. At times, a championship club will overpay, i.e. mortgage their future, and give up top prospects for a veteran.

Then there are middle of the road teams that also have needs to fill, but have development gaps in their system. A middle of the road team may be competitive, but not favored to win their division. They attempt to re-tool their roster to improve spots in order to build a quality roster. In this situation, teams usually find a way to move equal talent for equal talent (usually different position players) in order to improve both teams.

Then there is the classic "change of scenery" trade. Here, teams exchanged their damaged or underperforming players in the hope that a new team and coaching staff could turn around a player's career. The Cubs deal for Ian Stewart for Tyler Colvin is a classic change of scenery move which did not work out well for either club.

There are certain general trading philosophies of teams. Some teams only concentrate on their major league team - - - they want to win year in and year out. The Yankees and Red Sox fit this mold. As a result, they use their minor league prospects as more trade bait than potential major league starters. Then on the opposite end, certain teams live and die on player development like the Rays. They will re-stock their system by trading the players they have developed into quality major leaguers, but who get into expensive arbitration years.

The Cubs need to lock up with a team that wants to win now, and needs a starting pitcher like Samardzija to make that happen. But there are still quality free agents still on the market which will not cost prospects. A Samardzija trade may not happen until the July trade deadline next season.