Matthew Pouliot of Rotoworld opined that Rizzo was one of the majors most "over rated" first basemen:
Anthony Rizzo -- Cubs - I didn't think I was down on Rizzo, but he has an average
draft position of 101 at Yahoo so far, while I place him 157th in the
top 300. On the one hand, it looks like quite a fluke that Rizzo hit
just .233 last season, given his obvious power and the fact that his
strikeout rate was below the league average. Still, I think he's more of
a .260-.270 guy than someone likely to hit .280-.290. Also, he has a
really crummy lineup around him again. The Cubs got OBPs of .321 and
.310 from the top two spots in the lineup ahead of Rizzo last year, and
they've done nothing to upgrade over the winter. Actually, they've most
likely downgraded, since David DeJesus had a .341 OBP in his 66 games as
a leadoff man last season. I have Rizzo posting the same kind of OPS as
guys ahead of him like Eric Hosmer, Morales and Mike Napoli, but I
expect him to lag behind all of those guys in RBI.
Numbers don't lie. And the fact that the Cubs are a bad team does not help a middle of the line up hitter's production.
However, Rizzo has put up a 2.4 WAR (2012) and 2.6 WAR (2013) which are solid starter numbers. He has hit 39 HR and driven in 137 RBI as a Cub which an average 19.5 HR and 68.5 RBI. People expect 30 HR and 100 RBI seasons from Rizzo, which means that he would have to increase his offensive production by 46 to 54 percent in order to attain those goals. In order to do that, the Cubs team would have to increase its team on-base percentage by a similar amount in order for Rizzo to have base runners in front of him and the ability to see better pitches. Currently, the Cubs have no lead off or number two hitter to set the table, or a solid #4 threat to protect Rizzo in the third slot in the order. One solution is to move Starlin Castro to lead off and let him swing away. However, that move creates Castro as a mini-Soriano, which may not be a good thing over the long term.
