The Big Question: Is the wait almost over? (No.)
It has been 105 long years since the north side of Chicago last celebrated a World Series title and in seven months that number will be pushed to 106.
Let’s get it out of the way: this 2014 edition of the Cubs is hopeless. (This is the first national publication I recall using this term before game one of a new season.) There’s not enough firepower in the lineup, not enough shutdown stuff on the pitching staff, and they’ll play in a five-team division that features four much better squads. Bovada pegs the Cubs' over-under win total for the 2014 season at 69.5 — same as the Marlins and well below the Brewers (79.5), Pirates (83.5), Reds (84.5), and Cardinals (90.5).
And it doesn’t take a casino odds-maker to figure out what’s wrong with the Northsiders’ roster.
The four-year, $52 million commitment made last winter to right-handed starter Edwin Jackson already looks like a bust. (Jackson's signing was a knee-jerk front office decision after losing out on Sanchez to the Tigers; the Cubs overpaid for a .500 pitcher at best) Travis Wood is very good but far from a typical ace (that is a premature statement), and Jeff Samardzija took a step back in 2013 after flashing front-line numbers in 2012 (this also is debatable since many believe Samardzija's IP numbers are improving despite no offensive support). Some combination of Jason Hammel, Jake Arrieta, Chris Rusin and James McDonald will fill out the final two spots of a thoroughly-unintimidating starting rotation. (This year's starting rotation will be considered a downgrade from last year's opening day roster).
The lineup isn’t any more formidable.Anthony Rizzo has promising upside at first base, but his park-adjusted batting numbers were nearly league-average for that premium offensive position during the 2013 season. (Rizzo had a disappointing season and he needs to adjust to the league this year since the front office has bet the ranch that he will be a cornerstone for the future). Fifth-year shortstop Starlin Castro was a complete disaster last summer, hitting .245/.284/.347 for an OPS+ of just 72. (Castro and Sveum apparently did not get along; the team keeps asking too much from Castro. Moving him around the line up and adjusting his swing did him no good.) Luis Valbuena (3B), Nate Schierholtz (RF), Junior Lake (LF), Ryan Sweeney (CF),Wellington Castillo (C), and Darwin Barney (2B) make up the rest of the Cubs’ starting position player group. (Barney may lose his spot to Bonifacio, who is the only legitimate lead-off hitter on the squad. Lake, Sweeney and Schierholtz are probably not starters on 85% of the other teams.Valbuena is another light hitting utility guy forced to start on a glorified AAA team.)
So, is the wait almost over? It depends on whether you have a gracious definition of “almost.”
What else is going on?
- A total of seven Cubs prospects appeared in last month’s Baseball America Top 100, tied for the second-most of any organization. Javier Baez looks like a star in the making and will likely work his way into the major league infield mix by the end of this summer. He batted .282/.341/.578 with 37 home runs, 111 RBI, and 20 stolen bases in 130 games last year between High-A Daytona and Double-A Tennessee. Kris Bryant, the second overall pick in the 2013 MLB Amateur Draft, could also become a starter — at third base — by the end of 2014. He tallied nine homers and 32 RBI in just 36 minor league games last season. Right-handed starter C.J. Edwards and Cuban outfielder Jorge Soler were among the other Cubs prospects named to Baseball America‘s list. Team president Theo Epstein is building a legitimate nucleus. (As I have cautioned for years, the grand hype of prospects usually leads to bitter disappointment. The Cubs have a history of "can't miss" prospects who somehow fail to reach their potential. Even now, Soler was the #1 prospect, but his stock has faded in the Top 10 lists)
- Something to keep an eye on with this rising class of elite-level prospects: Javier Baez was drafted as a shortstop in 2011 (ninth overall) and has played nothing but shortstop in the Cubs’ minor league system. Starlin Castro signed a seven-year, $60 million contract extension with the Cubs in August 2012, but he might not finish out that deal in Chicago. (This is what I speculated would happen; Castro would be moved - - - possibly to the Yankees to replace Jeter - - - to open SS position for Baez) Castro is young enough and has enough raw talent that he will presumably attract interest from other clubs even if he doesn’t bounce back right away in 2014.
- Darwin Barney won a Gold Glove for his outstanding defensive play at second base in 2012 and probably should have won it again in 2013, but he owns a hideous .246/.293/.336 career slash line in 1,799 plate appearances at the major league level and the situation only worsened last season. Emilio Bonifacio can probably steal that starting second base job away from Barney by early-to-mid summer. (As I said above, Barney may revert to utility infielder role while Bonifacio plays 2B, 3B and OF)
- The Cubs fired Dale Sveum last September after just two years in the managerial post and officially selected Rick Renteria in early November to be his replacement. Renteria was the Padres’ bench coach when current Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer worked in the San Diego front office and is well-respected around the baseball world. Renteria is the 53rd manager in Cubs franchise history. (This is another rookie manager hire which does not bode well for the long term health of the franchise. Renteria may be a nice guy, but nice guys tend to finish last. The Cubs continue to miss on their target solutions, whether in FAs or managerial choices (Girardi). As a rookie manager, Renteria will be easy for the front office to control, and when the time comes, discard.)
(How can a team with a worse roster IMPROVE by six games?! No, this team appears to be headed for only 62 wins since the July trade deadline will be very active for the Cubs, with players like Hammel, Veras, Samardzija, Schierholtz and possibly Barney on the block.)
