July 5, 2014

NOT SO BIG TRADE

What Oakland did was get about 10 extra starts from their newly acquired pitchers, who statistically fit into #2 and #3 in a low ERA rotation after revived Scott Kazimer. In the competitive AL West, the A's have signaled that they are going for the divisional crown and deep in the playoffs. The Athletics currently have the best record in the major leagues at 53-33.

With Friday's trade for Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel, ESPN states all five members of the Athletics' new rotation now rank among the top 35 qualified starters in the majors in ERA. 
Pitcher ERA Rank
Scott Kazmir 2.61 12th
Jeff Samardzija 2.83 18th
Jason Hammel 2.98 23rd
Sonny Gray 3.08 27th
Jesse Chavez 3.23 33rd

In addition, Samardzija and Hammel go to a pitcher friendly ball park in Oakland.

The Cubs, who had a 6 percent chance of making the playoffs, decided to back up the truck and kill their competitive spirit for 2014. On paper, the Cubs received less in return for starters Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel than they received for Matt Garza or Scott Feldman. It is certainly less than the rumored Blue Jay deal where the Cubs were trying to get 2 of the top 3 Jay pitching prospects plus major league ready position players.

Samardzija, 29, is 2-7 with a 2.83 ERA this season. Hammel, 31, is 7-5 with a 2.98 ERA.
Hammel is set to become a free agent after this season, while Samardzija has one more year of arbitration before becoming a free agent. They had been on the trading block for weeks, and received intense scouting from AL East teams.

The Cubs received only four players for the two starters: the A's 2012 first-round pick, shortstop Addison Russell: 2013 first-round pick,  outfielder Billy McKinney;  pitcher Dan Straily;  and a player to be named later,

Russell, 20, is ranked third among all prospects on ESPN's Keith Law's recent Top 100 Prospects list.   The troubling issue with the trade is that Russell has appeared in only 18 games this season due to a hamstring strain. He was hitting .333 in 58 at-bats at Double-A Midland. There is a question why the A's would part with their #1 prospect . The team's #2 prospect was also a quality shortstop, so it may have been an educated guess on Russell's injury propensity that allowed Oakland to deal him.

McKinney, 19, has a .241 batting average with 10 home runs and 33 RBIs in 75 games for Class A Stockton this year.

Straily, 25, is 1-2 with a 4.93 ERA in seven starts for the A's.  This season he has a NEGATIVE 0.1 WAR in his 7 starts, only averaging 5.4 IP/start. He was demoted to AAA in May where  he was pitching to the tune of a 4.71 ERA for Sacramento. The right-hander career record 13-11 in 41 starts for Oakland over the past three seasons, with 1.257 WHIP and 2.16 K/BB ratio. He has performed like a fifth starter.

So the "big" trade of the top of the Cubs rotation only netted the team an injured AA shortstop, another projected corner outfielder with power swing but low BA, and a AAA starter. (The player to be named later is usually a non-factor prospect). This trade does not help the major league ball club today, or in the next two seasons.

The question remains that if Russell is an elite shortstop that is the key to this deal, then this deal puts the front office in a situation where both Starlin Castro and Javy Baez slide down the priority list for the Cubs future (into future trade chips).  Castro has had a bounce back year but still has critics, and Baez has not been tearing up AAA as people had projected earlier this year.

This trade is a good deal for Oakland, and an underwhelming one for Chicago.