Even broadcaster Len Kasper, who butters his toast on the Cubs logo, admits that not every prospect in a team's system will pan out and become a good major league player.
Kasper likes that the Cubs have many touted prospects in their minor league system. He also believes that one or two may become All-Stars. He also thinks that one or two may never make it to a Cub uniform, probably traded for needed pitching.
This radio conversation was brought about by his initial impressions of Javy Baez. With all the attention on Baez's promotion, Kasper has not seen enough to make any clear conclusions except that he believes Baez is better suited in the middle of the batting order.
There have been side by side comparisons to the swings of Baez and Gary Sheffield. Both had long quick hacks through the hitting zone. Sheffield had a 22 year major league career. He batted .292, with 509 HRs and a career 60.2 WAR. With such a small sample size, no one can really project Baez having such a good career.
One thing I have noticed is that pitchers are taking advantage of Baez's free swinging approach. With 13 Ks in his first 33 AB, a strike out rate of 39.3 percent is too high. But pitchers are not just getting him out on sliders or curves, but on high fastballs. In fact, pitchers do not seem to back off throwing heat to Baez. Normally with young, aggressive rookie hitters, pitchers set up hitters with off speed breaking balls. Then, the rookie needs to quickly learn how to adjust to major league pitching strategy.
It could be a macho thing, too. Pitchers who face a highly praised rookie may want to get him out with their best stuff, which is usually the fastball.
Will the Cubs try to tinker with Baez's swing in order to tighten it up so he makes more contact? The team did try to tinker with Starlin Castro's swing, which led to a reversion at the plate. The Cubs wanted to place Baez in the second hole to get as many at-bats this year as possible so when the eventual first slump takes place, Baez has time to adjust and get out of it. This is preventative medicine approach to hitting so Baez can start next season without the fear of having slumps or not having the knowledge to get out of one. If Baez can handle early adversity, he may pan out to be a good major league player. Or he may turn into another Corey Patterson.
