January 7, 2015

BACK TO THE WELL

The Cubs have crawled back to WGN-TV to broadcast the last 45 games of their schedule,
through the 2019 season. The games will not be televised on the WGN America superstation.

The Tribune reports that last season, WGN-Ch. 9 paid about $250,000 per game and lost $200,000 per game because of weak advertising revenue, sources said. The new rights agreement is likely more favorable for WGN and could play out better than last year’s deal, sources said, despite a later start on ad sales.


Launching a regional sports network in 2020 could mean big bucks for the Cubs, who earned about $60 million last season as the team split its schedule between Comcast SportsNet Chicago and WGN-TV. 

 The loss of 45 games would equate to losing 27 percent of potential local broadcast revenues.  Even if the Cubs take substantially less (which WGN had previously offered only a "profit sharing deal" on game telecasts, i.e. meaning nearly nothing based on last season's poor ad sales), it is still better than losing fan interest.

The Cubs need the 45 games broadcast more than WGN needs to show them. People are still creatures of habit; if a fan does not have the opportunity to watch a non-televised Cub game, he or she will find something else to do. And if that something else is just as enjoyable, then he or she may stop watching games on TV in order to experience different forms of entertainment. This is the problem the Dodgers will face in 2015 after 75% of the their local fan base could not watch 2014 Dodger games due to cable operators balking at the Dodgers license fee demands. 

If the Cubs are going to launch their own network in 2020, it needs to keep its loyal base in tact and grow the Millennials.

 Millennials are defined as the generation of people born between the early 1980s and the early 2000s. Perhaps the most commonly used birth range for this group is 1982-2000. The Millennial Generation is also known as Generation Y, because it comes after Generation X — those people between the early 1960s and the 1980s. It has also been called "the Peter  Pan  or Boomerang Generation" because of the propensity of some of them to move back in with their parents, perhaps due to economic constraints, and a growing tendency to delay some of the typical adulthood rites of passage like marriage or starting a career.


Millennials have been characterized in a number of different ways. On the negative side, they've been described as lazy, narcissistic and prone to jump from job to job.  The 2008 book "Trophy Kids" by Ron Alsop discusses how many young people have been rewarded for minimal accomplishments (such as mere participation) in competitive sports, and have unrealistic expectations of working life.

Time magazine said polls show that this group demands flexible, unrealistic work schedules and  more 'me time' on the job, while needing nearly nonstop feedback and career advice from their managers.  In the story, "The Me Me Me Generation," it begins: "They’re narcissistic. They’re lazy. They’re coddled. They’re even a bit delusional. Those aren’t just unfounded negative stereotypes about 80 million Americans born roughly between 1980 and 2000. They’re backed up by a decade of sociological research."

A 2012 study found Millennials to be "more civically and politically disengaged, more focused on materialistic values, and less concerned about helping  the larger community than were GenX (born 1962-1981) and Baby Boomers (born 1946 to about 1961) at the same ages," USA Today reported.  "The trend is more of an emphasis on extrinsic values such as money,  fame, and image, and less emphasis on intrinsic values such as self-acceptance, group affiliation and community." The study was based on an analysis of two large databases of 9 million high school seniors or entering college students.

They have also been described in positive ways. They are generally regarded as being more open-minded, and more supportive of gay rights and equal rights for minorities. Other positives adjectives to describe them include confident, self-expressive, liberal, upbeat and receptive to new ideas and ways of living.

The next generation fan base is going to be a tough sell for traditional sports leagues. They do not crave escapism through sports fanaticism, since they view the world already revolving around themselves.

They may be more adapt at new technology and how to consume new forms of entertainment like short YouTube video content created by their peers, or streaming web shows on demand. Whether they have the patience to sit and watch a three hour baseball game is suspect.