February 13, 2015

TRADING PLACES

In 2014, the Cubs put a waiver claim on Cole Hamels. It is customary that a team place all its players on revocable waivers after the trade deadline in order to judge potential trade partners. The Cubs surprised many as being a "buyer" on Hamels. The Phils pulled back the ace pitcher and no trade happened.

But this week, Bruce Levine was on the radio talking about the Cubs and Hamels. He believes the Cubs, who lost out on James Shields, are still interested in Hamels. However, the Phillies are looking for a bunch of young prospects from the Cubs in order to move Hamels.
“Eight teams have kicked the tires,” general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. told CSNPhilly.com.
How many teams have made offers?
“Real offers?” Amaro said.
“Four.”
The Cubs are apparently one of the tire kickers.

Hamels is owed $98 million. Levine believes the Cubs have the money to do anything at this point. (Which is an cloudy statement considering the Cubs have huge outlays on Wrigley reconstruction, new litigation fees and the unlikely hope that all the big prospects will turn to gold in 2015). The Cubs were second in the Shields free agency bidding, offering three years, $60 million. The Padres won with four years, $75 million. If the Cubs had no barriers on money, then another $5 million per year would have gotten Shields.

In order to acquire Hamels, the Phillies would probably want a catcher, Welington Castillo, an impact middle infielder, Addison Russell, a young ready starter, Kyle Hendricks and another prospect like Albert Almora or Arismendy Alcantara. The radio hosts immediately turned down that package on behalf of the Cubs organization.

Clearly, the speculation is that Castillo and LHP Travis Wood is not enough to pry Hamels away from Philadelphia, which is going to go through a major rebuild. Castillo has an average annual WAR of 1.54 (1.8 last year), Wood an average annual WAR of 1.0, and Alcantara 0.6 for a benchmark group WAR of 3.1 WAR. Hamels average WAR is 4.4. Hendricks had a 2.9 WAR last year. Hendricks, Castillo and Alcantara is probably a good enough package to acquire Hamels from a neutral observation point-of-view. But the Phils will demand more and the Cubs really covet their own prospects so any deal is a long shot.

Hamels, 31, has played 9 seasons. In 274 career starts, he is 108-83, 3.27 ERA, 1.142 WHIP, 3.77 K/BB ratio and 40.4 WAR.

He has been compared to Shields, 33, 11 years career 26.7 WAR and Zack Greinke, 31, 9 years career 39.4 WAR.

Would Hamels help the Cubs rotation? Of course. And with the current front office's fascination with lefties, a rotation of Lester, Hamels, Arrieta, T. Wood and Hammel would be an upgrade over 2014.

Perhaps the $98 million budget would be better held in reserve for David Price's free agency in 2015.