Cameron says the the pre-season forecasts had the White Sox only going 78-84, with just an 8% chance of winning the AL
Central and a 6% chance of winning one of the two Wild Card spots; the
Rangers and Twins were the only AL teams with a lower chance of reaching
the postseason. There was a scenario where things broke right and the
White Sox became legitimate contenders — the Astros are currently in the
midst of that scenario at the moment — but it was going to require the
team’s role players step up and fill some of the areas where the team
was expected to get replacement level production.
That hasn’t happened.
The projectionists concerns were at catcher, second base, third base, right field, and the last two spots in the rotation. Conor Gillaspie had been adequate at third but lacked power; Tyler Flowers can play adequate defense but was a offensive liability; back end starters John Danks and Hector Noesi were not very good last season; and the team would have to rely upon rookies at second base in Micah Johnson or Carlos Sanchez. So far, all those players have all been below replacement level. That’s just too many voids for a contender, and when guys like LaRoche, Cabrera, and Samardzija struggle too, then you end getting pummeled by a lousy Twins team on your way to an 8-14 record after the season’s first month.
After getting outscored 31-8 in their four game series against Minnesota, there is a great deal of "badness" to pause. By BaseRuns projections, the White Sox should actually be 7-15. The Sox have played worse than any other team in baseball, including the Brewers, the team that just fired their manager. The White Sox aren’t actually the worst team in baseball, but this isn’t a team that has played well and just run into some bad luck, or given up runs at the wrong time; as Cameron writes: they’ve just been straight up awful.
The White Sox are so far behind the Tigers and Royals at this early stage of the season, the White Sox a 2% chance of winning the division and a 3% chance of capturing a Wild Card spot. Thus, the irony of having one of the best off-seasons in baseball has quickly turned to having one of the worst seasons in franchise history.
Cameron opines that the White Sox have roughly 80 games to get back in the race before the trade deadline and if Detroit and Kansas City play at even their modest projected rest-of-season winning percentages, the White Sox would have to play approximately .650 baseball to overtake them by the end of July. That means the White Sox will have to win every series (2 of 3 games) until the All-Star break to make a competitive run in the second half of the season.
Cameron doesn't think the White Sox have to start the fire sale tomorrow. There is still the core of a good team but there are just too many weak spots on the current roster to make a real serious run in 2015.
However, Sox fans will disagree. If one believes that players will eventually get "back to their baseball card numbers" the White Sox pitching staff will rebound. And pitching is still the key to win in the American League Central. Sale, Carlos Quintana and Samardzjia are three quality starters. Robertson is a proven closer. Matt Albers and Nate Jones will come off the DL this summer to bolster the bullpen. Carlos Rodon will get better in the bullpen (he has not been that bad so far). Geo Soto is an upgrade as a back up catcher and could easily move into the starter role over Flowers. Avi Garcia, coming back from an injury last season, could be a steady influence in the middle of the batting order, helping to protect MVP candidate Jose Abreu. Like most NL players, LaRoche is having a tough time adjusting to being a full time DH. A quick fix would be to platoon LaRoche at first base.
The counter position is that the White Sox need not be Sellers, but could actually "buy" one or two pieces to help solidify the club. A starting pitcher and/or a third baseman could all that is necessary to turn things around. But those pieces are hard to come by.
Now, some fans think that the real problem is manager Robin Ventura. The question is whether he is getting the most out of his players. A few have called for his firing, with the Sox rehiring firebrand Ozzie Guillen. Guillen led the Sox to their 2005 championship, which was built on a brilliant four man starting rotation (who threw 4 consecutive complete game victories in the ALCS). But hiring Guillen is not an option for the front office.
So it is too early to write off the White Sox 2015 season. Baseball is a strange game. If the Astros can run off a ten game win streak, so could the White Sox.
That hasn’t happened.
The projectionists concerns were at catcher, second base, third base, right field, and the last two spots in the rotation. Conor Gillaspie had been adequate at third but lacked power; Tyler Flowers can play adequate defense but was a offensive liability; back end starters John Danks and Hector Noesi were not very good last season; and the team would have to rely upon rookies at second base in Micah Johnson or Carlos Sanchez. So far, all those players have all been below replacement level. That’s just too many voids for a contender, and when guys like LaRoche, Cabrera, and Samardzija struggle too, then you end getting pummeled by a lousy Twins team on your way to an 8-14 record after the season’s first month.
After getting outscored 31-8 in their four game series against Minnesota, there is a great deal of "badness" to pause. By BaseRuns projections, the White Sox should actually be 7-15. The Sox have played worse than any other team in baseball, including the Brewers, the team that just fired their manager. The White Sox aren’t actually the worst team in baseball, but this isn’t a team that has played well and just run into some bad luck, or given up runs at the wrong time; as Cameron writes: they’ve just been straight up awful.
The White Sox are so far behind the Tigers and Royals at this early stage of the season, the White Sox a 2% chance of winning the division and a 3% chance of capturing a Wild Card spot. Thus, the irony of having one of the best off-seasons in baseball has quickly turned to having one of the worst seasons in franchise history.
Cameron opines that the White Sox have roughly 80 games to get back in the race before the trade deadline and if Detroit and Kansas City play at even their modest projected rest-of-season winning percentages, the White Sox would have to play approximately .650 baseball to overtake them by the end of July. That means the White Sox will have to win every series (2 of 3 games) until the All-Star break to make a competitive run in the second half of the season.
Cameron doesn't think the White Sox have to start the fire sale tomorrow. There is still the core of a good team but there are just too many weak spots on the current roster to make a real serious run in 2015.
However, Sox fans will disagree. If one believes that players will eventually get "back to their baseball card numbers" the White Sox pitching staff will rebound. And pitching is still the key to win in the American League Central. Sale, Carlos Quintana and Samardzjia are three quality starters. Robertson is a proven closer. Matt Albers and Nate Jones will come off the DL this summer to bolster the bullpen. Carlos Rodon will get better in the bullpen (he has not been that bad so far). Geo Soto is an upgrade as a back up catcher and could easily move into the starter role over Flowers. Avi Garcia, coming back from an injury last season, could be a steady influence in the middle of the batting order, helping to protect MVP candidate Jose Abreu. Like most NL players, LaRoche is having a tough time adjusting to being a full time DH. A quick fix would be to platoon LaRoche at first base.
The counter position is that the White Sox need not be Sellers, but could actually "buy" one or two pieces to help solidify the club. A starting pitcher and/or a third baseman could all that is necessary to turn things around. But those pieces are hard to come by.
Now, some fans think that the real problem is manager Robin Ventura. The question is whether he is getting the most out of his players. A few have called for his firing, with the Sox rehiring firebrand Ozzie Guillen. Guillen led the Sox to their 2005 championship, which was built on a brilliant four man starting rotation (who threw 4 consecutive complete game victories in the ALCS). But hiring Guillen is not an option for the front office.
So it is too early to write off the White Sox 2015 season. Baseball is a strange game. If the Astros can run off a ten game win streak, so could the White Sox.
