Theo Epstein is cruising toward the end of his Cubs contract in 2016. Tom Ricketts said this week he would talk to Epstein about an extension "pretty soon." But will he?
Ricketts also said this week despite the Cubs on-field success, added revenues from
attendance and TV ratings does not mean that next year's team’s payroll
will greatly rise.
Ricketts told reporters "Theo [Epstein] will have some resources this offseason,” Ricketts said. “But I don’t know how (much). And I’m not sure he’ll find something he wants to do with ‘em. It’s up to him….Obviously,
winning helps the payroll analysis, (but) it’s not about payroll
anymore. The fact is, the correlation between the dollars you spend and
the wins you get on the field is going down every single year. So in
order to have sustainable success, you can’t count on money. You have to
count on young talent. You’ve seen what we’ve done. We’ve gone out and
built the best facilities in baseball. We’ve scouted well. We’ve drafted
well. I think we’re developing well."
There have been critics, such as myself, who disagreed with the Epstein rebuild philosophy: tank for several seasons, get high draft choices, overspend in the international market and sell "hope" in the future. As a big money market team, the Cubs could have done a balanced rebuild: emphasize scouting, player development and sign free agents to continue to be a competitive team. The Yankees follow that plan. Even the Cardinals follow that plan.
But perhaps Epstein was secretly handcuffed into doing a "cheap" rebuild through the draft, and left with fielding major league teams with journeymen players.
You never hit on all your prospects. And as good as the new kids have been, more often than not the league will catch up to them. Jorge Soler has a full year in the majors, and his progress has stalled. Kyle Schwarber looked lights out hitting above .300 but now has faded to the .240s. There will still be growing pains on the roster.
But the way Epstein drafted to build this team was to use high picks on the best hitters available. This works okay, but it leaves a deficit in pitching (even though in the last 3 drafts, almost 50% of the draftees have been pitchers - - - Epstein has failed to develop and promote one Cub drafted pitching prospect.) The Mets have used the opposite approach: focus on developing young arms and then buy hitters in free agency.
Epstein is stuck with trying to find solutions to a pitching staff that seems to have fallen backwards. The bullpen has been overtaxed; Maddon is not using everyone in the pen in September; and the No. 3, 4, and 5 starters have been less than stellar. There are no stud pitching prospects in the Cubs farm system.
If the Cubs are going to be competitive in 2016, there has to be a major resource commitment to pitching, expensive pitching. But Ricketts has already forewarned that the payroll is not going to rise significantly. That means no David Price, Zack Greinke or Jordan Zimmerman.
So the writing may be already on the new brick outfield wall. The Cubs may not be in a position to spend more money to be more competitive in 2016. The Ricketts are funneling resources into the vast real estate development outside the ball park under the guise of "saving" Wrigley Field for the fans.
Will Epstein even want to stay when the baseball operations are tied by the business side, Crane Kenney and Ricketts?
In many situations, the President of the baseball team talks directly to the owner to set a baseball budget. Then it is the President that administers the budget. But in the Cubs case, the financials are handled by non-baseball people. It is like a little kid asking his parents for an increase in his allowance. And with the large debt load and construction costs, daddy Ricketts is keeping his coin purse clamped shut.
With the Cubs success this year, one would have thought that Epstein and Jed Hoyer's contracts would have been locked up by September 1st. What more do they have to prove to ownership? A World Series championship?
During the ill-timed wild card celebration, it was Ricketts who moved center stage to celebrate the "organization's" triumph, the return to post-season play. There may be a power struggle and self-conceit on the business side for the success of the baseball team. And that type of strain Epstein is familiar with: it happened to him in Boston.
The Cubs turnaround puts Epstein in Golden Boy status. He can hit the open market and get his value and more importantly, more control of an organization. There are several big spending teams that are in the market for young, aggressive baseball men - - - Toronto and Seattle. And no one really knows how long the Yankees will keep Brian Cashman, even though he signed an extension through 2017. Epstein winding up with the Yankees would be the ultimate payback against the Red Sox.
If Epstein stays with the Cubs, expect that he will try to wrestle more business control from Ricketts. But realize that Ricketts is more invested in turning Wrigley Field and its real estate into a year round entertainment complex (maximizing revenue) than spending more money on one tenant, the Cubs.
