January 6, 2016

GORDON RETAINED

MLBTR reports that the Royals will retain OF Alex Gordon.

Gordon was one of the top three FA outfielders on the market. But after the pitchers signed their
big deals, the free agent market dried up in December.

So much so that Gordon is taking a contract well below what analysts had predicted he would receive in free agency.

MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan and Yahoo Sports Jeff Passan report the deal is believed to be for four years with a guarantee in the “low-$70MM range,”

Passan wrote that a deal could come together quickly between the two sides, and it appears just that has occurred. An official announcement could come later today, says Flanagan, assuming Gordon passes his physical.

The preliminary figures noted above would appear to suggest that middle ground was found between team and player. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes had credited the veteran with earning power in the five-year, $105MM range entering the winter, and by all appearances there were numerous other teams with serious interest in his services.

Teams have become conservative at this stage of the free agent market. It could be that borderline teams do not want to give up a first round draft choice AND sign a $100 million commitment to an outfielder. The White Sox were among the teams with serious interest. A four year deal is at the far end for ownership's risk level with any player, but it would seem Gordon's decision to stay in KC was to continue with a proven winning team. 

For the sabermetric crowd, Gordon had the most value of the outfield FAs (Cespedes, Upton) because of his high defensive skills, something that teams like the White Sox are desperate to improve.

If Gordon's contract is in the $70 million range, that may drop the market price for Cespedes and Upton below the $100 million mark. That would mark a major turning point in the free agent market.