When Stephen Strasburg did the unusual by agreeing to a long term extension with the Nationals instead of taking a chance in free agency, attention turned to Scott Boras' other client, the currently unworldly Jake Arrieta.
Arrieta was blunt to the Chicago media.
"Aces get seven years," Arrieta said of recent big name pitchers who signed mega deals. "I'll let you judge that. Just look at the numbers. You want to be paid in respect to how your peers are paid. I don't think that changes with any guy you ask. It happens around baseball every year."
The Strasburg decision seems to be "client" driven, meaning that the baseball agent was giving marching orders to get a deal done and not the agent driving the player's future.
Arrieta's words appear to be more "agent" driven - - - that Arrieta looks forward to get paid like his peers - - - in free agency.
And here is Arrieta's argument for looking for a major pay day:
He is in his 6th pro season. He is 30 years old. He has massed a career 17.2 WAR (with the Cubs 5.3, 8.7 and 2.1 in 2014, 2015, 2016). He has only been paid $15.5 million. Under WAR contract valuation, Arrieta's performance value was $86 million. In other words, he has outperformed his contract by five and one half times.
In contrast, Strasburg is also in his 6th season. Strasburg is only 27 years old. He has a career WAR of 8.8. He had been paid $25 million prior to the extension. His past WAR contract valuation was $44 million, so he was also underpaid by that standard. But Strasburg has leveraged his 59-37, 3.07 ERA career numbers into $175 million, almost four times the valuation metric.
Arrieta will be looking in 2017 for $30 million per season (6.0 WAR valuation) or more for seven years or $210 million. That would bring the back end of his contract into dead money years of his late 30s. Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan has written extensively about the sudden production fall-off of pitchers in the 30s. That is why long term pitching contracts are not favored by the owners. The Cubs probably will do more than a 4 year deal with Arrieta.
But Arrieta is looking for his one great last contract without a hometown discount.
But a better comparison is David Price. Price, 30 years old, is in his 8th major league season. He signed a 7 year, $217 million contract this off-season. He is at the magic $30 million plus per season contract status. Price career numbers are good: 108-57, 3.19 ERA and 28.5 WAR. His past performance value was $146 million. With the new Boston deal, Price is struggling at 4-1, 6.75 ERA and negative 0.7 WAR.
So what is Arrieta worth?
Whatever a team is willing to pay. Arrieta's recent history would put him more in the Price category, but injury history and Arrieta's recent two grinding starts make some think more Strasburg. The difference between those two contracts is $42 million.
Current Cubs management has painted itself in a corner. It hit a home run with the Scott Feldman trade for Arrieta and Pedro Strop. However, the draft strategy of taking the best bats has given the team a "core" of young players who will need to be paid during any megadeal of Arrieta (plus Lester's deal). I don't see the Cubs willing to set aside $330 million for two pitchers from 2017 on when you have to think expensive extensions for Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant.
But the price of quality starting pitching continues to go up. The only way to counter that is to develop a young, solid core of pitchers from your own system. This is the Achilles heel for the Cubs: they have not developed a young arm under Theo-Jed. They have trapped themselves in finding a rotation through free agency.
The Cubs have one more full season of Arrieta control. If the Cubs cannot work out an extension with Arrieta this off-season, the Cubs have two options: keep him for his walk year or trade him at the Winter meetings for young, controllable, major league ready pitching. Some of these decisions will be determined by the new CBA (whether draft picks will still be at risk for qualifying offers).
It may depend on whether the Cubs win a championship in 2016. If that is the case, there is less pressure on ownership or management to keep Arrieta for 2017. If the Cubs fall short, then the pressure to win the championship in 2017 is expanded ten fold. Arrieta would have to be kept on board to anchor the pitching staff.
Without a doubt, in any situation, Arrieta is in the cat bird's seat.
