The 2016 Cubs went 103-58 in the regular season. It had a team WAR of 57.4 (Hitting 37.4 + Pitching 20.0).
Currently, four key players will not be back.
Dexter Fowler: 13 HR, 48 RBI, 13 SB, .276 BA, 4.2 WAR
Jason Hammel: 15010, 166.2 IP, 1.206 WHIP, 1.1 WAR
David Ross: 10 HR, 32 RBI, .229 BA, 1.7 WAR
A. Chapman: 1-1, 1.01 ERA, 16 SV, 0.825 WHIP, 1.1 WAR
For
the lack of starting pitching on the free agent market, the release of
Hammel's option gives Hammel, 34, leverage to find a new landing spot on
a team of his own choosing. It appears lefty Mike Montgomery will take
over the 4th starter role in 2017.
Fowler, 30, declined
a mutual option to again chase free agency. Last season he was close to
signing with Baltimore. Rumors have it that the Blue Jays will take a
run at him. It would appear Albert Almora will be the new center
fielder. Whether he can be a lead off hitter is unknown.
Ross,
39, decided to retire after a memorable World Series run. He will walk
away from the game, take some time off, and probably return in some
coaching role. Who will be Jon Lester's new personal catcher. An angry
Miguel Montero, who is still owned one year/$14 million from the Cubs,
would be the leading candidate over Willson Contreras, who will catch
the major of games in 2017. Most people doubt that after his knee
injury, Kyle Schwarber will be able to catch games.
Chapman,
28, is set for a big payday in a very good closer free agent class.
This leaves a void for Rondon, Strop or Edwards to be used as a closer
by committee situation. The bullpen will get murkier as Travis Wood is
also a free agent. Wood, 29, went 4-0, 2.55 ERA in 77 GP, 1.131 WHIP and
0.5 WAR. He fell out of favor with Maddon in the playoffs.
The four key departures equates to 14.1 % of total Team WAR.
The hitters departure equates to 15.8% of total Fielder WAR while the pitchers are 11% of Team Pitching WAR.
There
will also be positional issues in the 2017 roster. Schwarber has shown
he is built to be a DH. But the front office is so enamored with his bat
that he falls into the category of a "no trade" player. But as a
valuable asset, Schwarber could yield a top line starting pitcher like a
Chris Sale.
The Winter Meetings start with the Cubs as
the World Champions. Everyone will be gunning at the Cubs in 2017 to
measure their own roster strengths. The championship hangover could hurt
Chicago with a slow start. Depth, especially in starting rotation,
will be an ongoing concern.
