The Winter meetings are slowly moving through the bars and lobby. The talk is still about Chris Sale.
Sale would be the prize of this off-season.
The reason is simple: he has tremendous locked in value.
He is signed through the next three years at the low price of $48 million.
He has amassed a career 31.1 WAR, an average of 4.44 per season.
Last year WAR was 6.6.
Based on valuation, his contract value WAR is 2.71. His average career performance WAR is 4.44 or a difference of 1.73 WAR at an annual value of $10.21 million. Over the life of the contract, a team is getting a minimum $30.62 million more value from Sale and his deal than what the team will pay him.
Last year alone, Sale outperformed his contract by $29.85 million. At that pace, you are getting a $90 million ace starter for 5th starter money.
The Dodgers just signed 36 year old Rich Hill to a $48 million, 3 year deal. For the same money, who would not want Sale over Hill?
Last year, Hill had an inflated WAR of 4.1 His career WAR is only 9.5 over 12 seasons (.0.79 = less than AAA replacement value). But by last year's standard, Sale was + 2.5 WAR better than Hill for better value by $14.75 million.
This is why the White Sox are wanting a huge price for Sale. Reports continue to state that the White Sox want at least four quality prospects (Top 10) or a mix of prospects and major league ready players under long term control.
That is why the Astros dangling OF George Springer for Sale is a possibility. Springer is under team control through 2021. He is currently at the league minimum. He hit .261, 29 HR, 82 RBI for Houston in 2016. Last year his WAR was 5.0. A package with Springer and two of Houston's best prospects could swing a Sale deal.
But the White Sox have some time to get other teams hot and bothered by a potential deal. The Nationals continue to be described as the "hottest" team on the Sale trail. But the Nats do not want to part with their two best prospects (SS Turner and OF Robles). But the odds are that some team will be winning to "overpay" for Sale if they believe they are one key player away from a World Series berth.
UPDATE:
Within ten minutes of this post, MLBTR reports Sale has been traded to the Red Sox for four prospects.
The Red Sox and White Sox have agreed to a blockbuster trade that will send Sale from Chicago to Boston in exchange for Yoan Moncada, Michale Kopech and two other prospects, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
Moncada, 21, is the #1 prospect in all Baseball. The Cuban 2B/3B hit .294, 15 HR 62 RBI in A-AA ball last season.
Kopech was the #5 Red Sox prospect (#67 in majors). He is a starting pitcher who was 4-1, 2.08 ERA, 1.101 WHIP in Class A ball.
