June 21, 2018


The Cubs continue to dance around first place in the NL Central without having consistent starting pitching from the back of the rotation.

Yu Darvish's injury has created multiple issues. Darvish was supposed to be the 1A or 1B starter this season. However, he has gotten off to a rocky start. Some people believe he is trying too hard to justify his large free agent contract. Others believe that the fan culture of a big American city is so different than in Japan that it has affected Darvish in a negative way.

Jon Lester has been the best pitcher on the staff, and maybe in the NL. In 15 starts , he is 9-2, 2.10 ERA in 90 IP with a stellar 2.6 WAR. He is averaging 6 IP/ start.

Darvish is on the opposite end of the spectrum. He has 8 starts with a 1-3 record, 4.95 ERA in 40 IP with a negative 0.3 WAR. He is only averaging 5 IP/start.

Kyle Hendricks has not had a breakout season. In his 14 starts, he is 5-6, 3.55 ERA in 83.2 IP with a 0.9 WAR. He is averaging just under 6 IP/start.

Jose Quintana is hovering around his White Sox stats: in 14 starts, he is 6-5 with 4.06 ERA and 0.0 WAR in 75 IP. He is only averaging 5 1/3 IP/start.

Tyler Chatwood is an enigma. He was an early signing for a lot of money to be a 5th starter. In his 14 starts, he is 3-5, 3.95 ERA in 68.1 IP. He is averaging 4 2/3 IP/start. His WHIP is an outrageous 1.727. He leads the league in walks allowed with 63 (Lester led the team in 2017 with 60 for an entire season).

However, swingman Mike Montgomery has been great as a starter. In his 5 starts, he has gone 2-1, with 1.21 ERA in 29.2 IP. He is 6th in strikeout rate, and 1st in not allowing walks. In his 23 appearances as a starter and reliever, he is 2-2, 3.11 ERA in 55 IP with a 0.9 WAR. He is averaging 6 IP/start.

Montgomery has earned a starting rotation spot. The question is what happens when Darvish gets back from the DL. Does Monty move back into the bullpen or does he stay as a permanent 6th starter. The front office is against having a 6 man rotation. But Maddon does not have Morrow who has back issues. The bullpen is getting burned out because starters cannot go deep into games.

This is the disturbing rotational fact. The starters are not eating innings:

Lester 6 IP/start
Hendricks 6 IP/start
Montgomery 6 IP/start
Quintana 5.1 IP/start
Darvish 5 IP/start
Chatwood 4.2 IP/start

The latter three starters bring into play using 4 relief pitchers in back to back games.

The Cubs still have several make-up games in this summer. A 6th starter like Montgomery is needed, but he needs to remain sharp and stretched out.

Maddon could use his match-up style and put Montgomery into a hybrid 6-man rotation. Keep Lester and Hendricks on their normal 5 day routine, but alternate an extra day for Darvish and Chatwood to plug in Montgomery against a left hand hitting lineup.