The Cubs appear to have locked the second overall selection in the June 2013 draft. The Astros pick first. It is uncertain who at this point the Astros, now in the AL West, will choose. The scouting services will probably retain pitcher Mark Appel, who did not sign this year, to be the number one draft prospect.
But the choice the Cubs must make is simple. The most glaring long term need is at third base. The Cubs should select San Diego junior Kris Bryant. Scouts are impressed by his patience, batting and power ratings, which top the charts. He hit 14 HRs, 57 RBIs, batted .366, .483 OBP and 9 SB. He projects as a long term power hitting corner (third base or RF).
Other third base prospects include North Carolina junior Colin Moran (3 HR 35 RBI .365 BA .434 OBP) and Virginia Tech junior Chad Pinder (7 HR, 37 RBI, .325 BA, .380 OBP, 6 SB).
The reason for drafting a college third baseman is critical. The obnoxious philosophy of a player needing 500 AB at AAA is an artificial boundary which limits the options at the major league club level. A college third baseman has many more quality at-bats than high schoolers, who will wind up in the rookie league. Bryant could start in AAA in 2013. If Josh Vitters cannot bounce back from his weak debut, then there is a player in Bryant that can compete for the job right away.
The Cubs lack power in the infield and players who can consistently drive in runs. Bryant fills the long term need at third base.
October 16, 2012
October 8, 2012
PLAYER FLIPPING
Gordon Wittenmyer, the Chicago Sun-Times baseball writer, opines that the Cubs, after losing 101 games, need to sign at least tow or three free agent starting pitchers in order just to be competitive in 2013. Competitive in the meaning of "not embarrassing."
Wittenmyer rightly believes that the Cubs will not make a play for big money marquee starters like Zack Greinke or Jake Peavy. The plan appears to be to sign second tier, cheaper middle of the rotation starters and "flip" them for prospects at the trade deadline like the Cubs did with Maholm.
The Cubs plan to sign pitchers in the under $10 million tier, preferably those nearer the $5 million mark. That would probably take out Edwin Jackson, at 29, the journeyman's journeyman starter who will be asking for big money this off season after being on a playoff team roster.
Wittenmyer speculates that the Cubs could eye a Shaun Marcum or a Anibel Sanchez as potential free agent acquisitions. Marcum is a solid #2-#3 starter for the Blue Jays and the Brewers. He would be a hard sign at this stage of his career. Sanchez may be a better target, but has less up side in the prospect flipping department. Another option would be another Pirate starter out of favor, Kevin Correira, 33, who went 12-11 with a 4.21 ERA.
There may be a lot of "second tier" starters but all have performance baggage, like Francisco Liriano (age 29), Carlos Villanueva (29), Chris Young (34), Carlos Zambrano (32), Jason Marquis (34), the latter two being former Cubs. It is unclear whether any candidate on this list could have a big enough turnaround season to be traded next July.
The concept of renting a pitcher for a half season to get more low prospects to fill up Class A ball would be fine if your were running a small market team like Kansas City or Tampa. But the Cubs are near the top in ticket prices and revenue in the third biggest market in the nation.
October 4, 2012
HIP WADERS NEEDED
You need to get on your hip waders in order to get through this pile of manure.
Paul Sullivan of the Tribune writes this afternoon on the Theo Epstein post-season discussion, with emphasis on what the Cubs will be doing for their fan base. Apparently, very little.
Sullivan's Epstein quotes on his assessment of the season and the future:
"(The Cubs ) buried ourselves right out of the chute and didn’t have the talent to overcome that.”
It’s Epstein’s job to complete what he called a “comprehensive overhaul of the baseball organization.”
Epstein said the Cubs have a “covenant” with the fans and that the 2.8 million in attendance for a 101-loss team is proof they’re “buying in” to the plan.
“They’re (the fans) a part of that covenant, so we have to reward them ultimately,” he said, adding "patience" is required.
“I think the experience at Wrigley is pretty great,” he said. “If we stay committed to that vision and we’re going places and we put a team on the field that plays really hard, the experience of coming to Wrigley is pretty special, it’s unique, it’s hard to replicate. I think that has something to do with the ticket prices."
Epstein said that the business operations department, led by business president Crane Kenney, is trying to "give them more value for what they are spending” at Wrigley.
“There’s no getting around the fact that as far as the ultimate return on investment for the fans’ dollar, which is seeing a winning team, they going to get better value down the road than they’re getting right now,” he said. “It’s our job to make sure the debt value, and experience of watching a baseball team down the stretch and into October and celebrating with that team is priceless, and that’s ultimately how we can reward the fans’ support.”
“I’m not going to sit here and say, 'Don’t worry about 101 losses because we have a magic plan to win the World Series in 2013, (that) it’s gonna happen, so be there now,’” he said. “That’s not the case. There is a plan, there is a vision. It might be a little bit longer turn than we all want it to be, but that we’re committed to it and that there is a great reward at the end.”
“We owe the fans a tremendous amount of hard work to get there,” he said, adding: “Maybe we’ll get there a year earlier if we work harder than our competition.”
Paul Sullivan of the Tribune writes this afternoon on the Theo Epstein post-season discussion, with emphasis on what the Cubs will be doing for their fan base. Apparently, very little.
Sullivan's Epstein quotes on his assessment of the season and the future:
"(The Cubs ) buried ourselves right out of the chute and didn’t have the talent to overcome that.”
It’s Epstein’s job to complete what he called a “comprehensive overhaul of the baseball organization.”
Epstein said the Cubs have a “covenant” with the fans and that the 2.8 million in attendance for a 101-loss team is proof they’re “buying in” to the plan.
“They’re (the fans) a part of that covenant, so we have to reward them ultimately,” he said, adding "patience" is required.
“I think the experience at Wrigley is pretty great,” he said. “If we stay committed to that vision and we’re going places and we put a team on the field that plays really hard, the experience of coming to Wrigley is pretty special, it’s unique, it’s hard to replicate. I think that has something to do with the ticket prices."
Epstein said that the business operations department, led by business president Crane Kenney, is trying to "give them more value for what they are spending” at Wrigley.
“There’s no getting around the fact that as far as the ultimate return on investment for the fans’ dollar, which is seeing a winning team, they going to get better value down the road than they’re getting right now,” he said. “It’s our job to make sure the debt value, and experience of watching a baseball team down the stretch and into October and celebrating with that team is priceless, and that’s ultimately how we can reward the fans’ support.”
“I’m not going to sit here and say, 'Don’t worry about 101 losses because we have a magic plan to win the World Series in 2013, (that) it’s gonna happen, so be there now,’” he said. “That’s not the case. There is a plan, there is a vision. It might be a little bit longer turn than we all want it to be, but that we’re committed to it and that there is a great reward at the end.”
“We owe the fans a tremendous amount of hard work to get there,” he said, adding: “Maybe we’ll get there a year earlier if we work harder than our competition.”
SO LET US REVIEW what Epstein is saying to fans the day after a 101-loss campaign.
1. The Cubs had a brutal start to the season, and did not have the "talent" to overcome a slow start.
Isn't it the job of the club president and general manager to assemble the best roster available, and then when there are issues during the season (performance or injury), be able to adapt quickly to fill holes in the roster? Didn't Epstein and Hoyer fail in this job duty to fans? (See, previous post on the Oakland A's overcoming adversity and budget restrictions to win the AL West.)
2. Epstein needs to complete a total overhaul of the baseball organization.
That means purging the old Jim Hendry-Tribune staff members in the baseball operations and hiring and promoting his own loyal employees in a means to consolidate power and influence over the club. The problem is that he has had a year to cull the deadwood from the organizational staff ranks, but decided to keep the status quo for most of the season. It seems like an excuse on the management side of the equation. On the player development side, it is clear that the AAA prospects under the old front office did not have major league talent, including the touted ones Josh Vitters and Brett Jackson. But Epstein made the conscious decision not to re-populate the system with "near ready" college juniors or seniors but instead went on low level, higher risk Class A players, including his international signees Concepcion and Soler. Epstein is trying to buy three more years of time for his choices to pan out in the minor leagues.
3. The Cubs have a "covenant" with the fans. A covenant is a legal contract, and the theological sense, it is a commitment to higher authority. Epstein is telling the fans that they have a "duty" to continue to be paying customers, and quells the concerns of high ticket prices for season ticket holders (the bulk of this year's attendance numbers) by claiming that fans "have bought in" to the rebuilding process. No, the fans did not. Many fans purchased this year's tickets before Theo was hired; at the hiring press conference, Ricketts told fans that the team would continue to be competitive, and refused to acknowledge that any rebuilding would occur. So the fans upheld their part of the bargain, but Epstein dodges the admission that the fans did not receive a major league product from the team.
4. At "some point," the Cubs have to reward their fans, Epstein said. But he kicked that can down the road and over a cliff. He won't acknowledge that the ticket prices should be decreased to match the play on the field. Instead, he says that the fans should be happy with the Wrigley experience. Then he punts the cost issue to his co-president in the business department to figure out how to give "fans more value" for their dollar. Fans are not looking to get more sideshows, more beer stations or more points of sale in the concourses - - - fans want a better team: wins, playoffs, championships.
5. Epstein says there is no "magic pill" to turn around the Cubs. That should put a shiver down the spine of season ticket holders who need to decide quickly whether $7,500 plus per seat is worth it for another long losing 2013 season. Epstein stresses that fans need to be "patient," but after 104 years and $130 million payrolls, management needs to get "results." Epstein is twisting management's "vision" and time line to place an additional burden on the alleged "dutie" of fans to continue to support the franchise by buying expensive tickets, beer and souvenirs.
6. Epstein never gives fans a "great reward" date. Is it 2014? 2015? 2016? 2017? 2020?? It is because he does not know himself. He wants to deflect the any criticism of the past season as being "new" to the job, and having to sort through the accumulated problems of the past regime. But he will now have to answer to the fans based upon his record as leader of the baseball team. Is he a great evaluator of talent? Of all the pick-ups this season, only Rizzo showed real potential. But whether Anthony Rizzo will be the next Joey Votto or Bryan LaHair is yet to be seen. But you can't sell snake oil hope to Cub fans anymore. You need to make objective progress year to year. Under that standard, losing 10 more games than the previous season, is a failure.
NO EXCUSES PERMITTED
Cubs president Theo Epstein will probably address the local media today to recap his first season as Cubs boss.
Epstein was the highly prized and highly compensated hire by owner Tom Ricketts, who thought he was buying "instant success."
The bottom line is the genius came into the job, he had an entire off season to right the ship,
but instead his club was worse - - - 11% worse than 2011. 101 losses is the third worst in franchise history. And the fact that the Cubs struggled in their last season to the 107 loss Houston Astros, the only team ever to go two consecutive seasons with 100 losses, is the black cloud hanging over Wrigley for the next six months.
Compare that to the lowly Oakland A's, who in the off season traded away their two best starting
pitchers and closer, had two more starters go down with injuries, but managed to cut a 13 game
deficit to win the AL West from the Rangers. GM Billy Beane took a 74 win team in 2011, and transformed them over the off season into a 94 win divisional championship.
Now, some will say that Beane has been on the job for years so his turnaround may have been laid several seasons ago. But not really. Beane has been under huge fiscal constraints in Oakland. He is forced to trade promising young players because of budget restrictions. Oakland has no modern revenue generating machine stadium. Oakland wanted to move to San Jose, but the Giants blocked it. Clearly, Epstein has much more flexibility in salary and in free agency than Beane does in Oakland.
So there can not be any excuses given by Epstein in his state of the Cubs speech. The Cubs are awful. The players played bad. There was little sign of improvement. Most of the moves made by the new front office did not pan out.
Epstein may cite his "good" pick ups in the Rizzo trade, the signing of DeJesus and Maholm and the pick up of middle reliever Camp, for whom the Mariners cut but manager Sveum called the team's MVP. Middle relievers are not team MVPs. Rizzo appears to be the real deal, but so did LaHair in the first half of 2012. DeJesus may have been a salary "bargain," but he would have never started on any other team. Maholm was a professional starter and his trade for a prospect may pan out as a good rent-a-player move. But Sean Marshall was still better than T. Wood and Sappelt in trade value.
But Epstein cannot run away from his "bad" moves: the Colvin and LeMathieu trade for Ian Stewart was a huge disaster; Rodrigo Lopez was journeyman poor; pick ups Teveer Miller and Jeff Bianchi were cut; Kerry Wood forgot how to pitch; Cardenas off waivers from Oakland could not displace Barney at second; De La Cruz was MIA; Bowden did not impress; Valbuena is not the answer at third base; Volstad as a starter was worse than Zambrano as a madman; in season acquisitions Chapman, Berken, and Germano were consistently inconsistently bad; claimer Socolovich was a non factor; Hinshaw was terrible; Mather was a below Mendoza line bench player, and Lenny Castillo was the injured Rule 5 player who took up a roster spot for little to zero return.
Epstein was the highly prized and highly compensated hire by owner Tom Ricketts, who thought he was buying "instant success."
The bottom line is the genius came into the job, he had an entire off season to right the ship,
but instead his club was worse - - - 11% worse than 2011. 101 losses is the third worst in franchise history. And the fact that the Cubs struggled in their last season to the 107 loss Houston Astros, the only team ever to go two consecutive seasons with 100 losses, is the black cloud hanging over Wrigley for the next six months.
Compare that to the lowly Oakland A's, who in the off season traded away their two best starting
pitchers and closer, had two more starters go down with injuries, but managed to cut a 13 game
deficit to win the AL West from the Rangers. GM Billy Beane took a 74 win team in 2011, and transformed them over the off season into a 94 win divisional championship.
Now, some will say that Beane has been on the job for years so his turnaround may have been laid several seasons ago. But not really. Beane has been under huge fiscal constraints in Oakland. He is forced to trade promising young players because of budget restrictions. Oakland has no modern revenue generating machine stadium. Oakland wanted to move to San Jose, but the Giants blocked it. Clearly, Epstein has much more flexibility in salary and in free agency than Beane does in Oakland.
So there can not be any excuses given by Epstein in his state of the Cubs speech. The Cubs are awful. The players played bad. There was little sign of improvement. Most of the moves made by the new front office did not pan out.
Epstein may cite his "good" pick ups in the Rizzo trade, the signing of DeJesus and Maholm and the pick up of middle reliever Camp, for whom the Mariners cut but manager Sveum called the team's MVP. Middle relievers are not team MVPs. Rizzo appears to be the real deal, but so did LaHair in the first half of 2012. DeJesus may have been a salary "bargain," but he would have never started on any other team. Maholm was a professional starter and his trade for a prospect may pan out as a good rent-a-player move. But Sean Marshall was still better than T. Wood and Sappelt in trade value.
But Epstein cannot run away from his "bad" moves: the Colvin and LeMathieu trade for Ian Stewart was a huge disaster; Rodrigo Lopez was journeyman poor; pick ups Teveer Miller and Jeff Bianchi were cut; Kerry Wood forgot how to pitch; Cardenas off waivers from Oakland could not displace Barney at second; De La Cruz was MIA; Bowden did not impress; Valbuena is not the answer at third base; Volstad as a starter was worse than Zambrano as a madman; in season acquisitions Chapman, Berken, and Germano were consistently inconsistently bad; claimer Socolovich was a non factor; Hinshaw was terrible; Mather was a below Mendoza line bench player, and Lenny Castillo was the injured Rule 5 player who took up a roster spot for little to zero return.
October 3, 2012
October 2, 2012
THE THUD
On a night in Chicago when vast majority of the city was watching the Bears easily handle the poor Cowboys on Monday Night Football, the Cubs set off on a mission. For a week the team and its coaches have put out the simple goal: don't loss 100 games. No player wants to be a part of a 100 loss team.
The final series of the season is against the lowly Astros, the worst team in major league baseball. The Astros are expansion team bad.
So the Cubs had a simple task: win against the worst team in the league.
The Cubs fell like a thud; shut-out 3-0 on two hits.
So much for player pride and team focus. For the third time in franchise history, the Cubs have lost 100 games. Even for a team with the personality of the "Lovable Losers," a 100 loss season is a rare feat of bad.
This means that the new Epstein-Hoyer management will be at least 10 percent worse this season than the last season under Jim Hendry. The 2011 team lost 91 games. The 2012 team has lost 9 more games, with two to play. Remember, these executives were brought in with big money contracts to turnaround the franchise. Instead, it has crumbled to rock bottom. If the 2011 season was deemed a failure by ownership, then 2012 has to be also considered a failure.
The words are excuses when they will say that the new front office has "started" to rebuild the organization from the low minors up. The rebuilding does not start today. It started almost a year ago, with only one of Epstein's pick ups (Anthony Rizzo) showing any major league promise.
GM Hoyer says the rebuilding process will be slow. Painfully slow it seems if 100 loss seasons are the new normal.
The final series of the season is against the lowly Astros, the worst team in major league baseball. The Astros are expansion team bad.
So the Cubs had a simple task: win against the worst team in the league.
The Cubs fell like a thud; shut-out 3-0 on two hits.
So much for player pride and team focus. For the third time in franchise history, the Cubs have lost 100 games. Even for a team with the personality of the "Lovable Losers," a 100 loss season is a rare feat of bad.
This means that the new Epstein-Hoyer management will be at least 10 percent worse this season than the last season under Jim Hendry. The 2011 team lost 91 games. The 2012 team has lost 9 more games, with two to play. Remember, these executives were brought in with big money contracts to turnaround the franchise. Instead, it has crumbled to rock bottom. If the 2011 season was deemed a failure by ownership, then 2012 has to be also considered a failure.
The words are excuses when they will say that the new front office has "started" to rebuild the organization from the low minors up. The rebuilding does not start today. It started almost a year ago, with only one of Epstein's pick ups (Anthony Rizzo) showing any major league promise.
GM Hoyer says the rebuilding process will be slow. Painfully slow it seems if 100 loss seasons are the new normal.
October 1, 2012
EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS
The Chicago White Sox clearly exceeded expectations. Many fans will be bitter with the fade at the end, but one must realize that the young pitchers and older veterans just ran out of gas.
What was a reasonable expectation when the Sox let their ace, Buerhle, go to free agency; dismiss their World Series manager Guillen; hoping that starter Peavey would spend more time on the mound than on the disabled list; and getting almost zero production from third from Morel, who turned into the new Joe Crede.
But this run to the top of the division bodes well for 2013. This team is competitive. It can win the AL Central with a few minor adjustments. And if they avoid sophomore slumps, the team could be good for years to come.
The Sox current 40 man roster stands as follows:
Starting pitchers: Axelrod, Danks, Floyd, Humber, Liriano, Molina, Peavy, Quintana, Sale. Danks will be coming back from injury, Peavy is a free agent because of his $22 million option so he will be gone, and someone from the Floyd-Humber duo needs to step up to fill out the back of the 2013 rotation. Liriano is a free agent who may not get much interest so he is a choice to come back.
Relief pitchers: Bruney, Carter, Castro, Crain, Heath, Jones, Marinez, Myers, Omogrosso, Reed, Santiago, Septimo, Thorton, Veal. There were so many rookie pitchers on the South Side it is hard to tell whether they met or extended their potential. Clearly, Jones and Reed have proven to be quality arms. Whether veterans like Crain, Myers and Thorton will be around next season depends on how badly GM Kenny Williams wants to tinker with the team.
Catchers: Flowers, Gimenez, Pierzynski. Pierzynski is a free agent and he would be difficult to replace. The organization likes Flowers, but he has not come up and grabbed the position from A.J. With a young pitching staff, Pierzynski is like a second pitching coach during games - - - an invaluable member of the coaching staff. Of all the free agents, Pierzynski would be a priority to re-sign.
Infielders: Beckham, Dunn, Hudson, D. Johnson, Konerko, Lopez, Morel, Olmedo, Ramirez and Youkilis. Third base will continue to be a question with injured Morel and free agent Youkilis. Hudson and D. Johnson will not be back next season.
Outfielders: J. Danks, De Aza, Rios, Vicideo and Wise. There is nothing wrong with these five outfielders being on the 2013 opening day roster.
The White Sox end the season with a payroll of around $98 million, which is high for a team that does not draw well. The White Sox have always been organized as a small market team playing in a big city market. The team is already committed to $78.25 million on 8 players.
The White Sox 2013 priorities can be summarized as starting catcher, starting third baseman, #3 starter and middle relievers. It is doubtful that the White Sox have the budget to sign free agents for each need position.
Free agent market will be thin this off season.
Catchers of note include Russell Martin, Mike Napoli, Ronny Paulino, Pierzynski, and Yorvit Torrealba. Martin or Napoli would be a choice, but they will be looking for a long term deal.
Starting third basemen of note include Brandon Inge, Jose Lopez or Scott Rolen, all at the end of their careers.
Starting pitchers of note include Kevin Correia, Zack Greinke, Edwin Jackson, Shaun Marcum, Joe Saunders and Carlos Zambrano. Jackson or Marcum could be possible under the radar selections.
One thing is certain. Kenny Williams takes the cards that he is dealt, and he is willing to reshuffle the deck and gamble on players and prospects. The future looks good for the White Sox.
What was a reasonable expectation when the Sox let their ace, Buerhle, go to free agency; dismiss their World Series manager Guillen; hoping that starter Peavey would spend more time on the mound than on the disabled list; and getting almost zero production from third from Morel, who turned into the new Joe Crede.
But this run to the top of the division bodes well for 2013. This team is competitive. It can win the AL Central with a few minor adjustments. And if they avoid sophomore slumps, the team could be good for years to come.
The Sox current 40 man roster stands as follows:
Starting pitchers: Axelrod, Danks, Floyd, Humber, Liriano, Molina, Peavy, Quintana, Sale. Danks will be coming back from injury, Peavy is a free agent because of his $22 million option so he will be gone, and someone from the Floyd-Humber duo needs to step up to fill out the back of the 2013 rotation. Liriano is a free agent who may not get much interest so he is a choice to come back.
Relief pitchers: Bruney, Carter, Castro, Crain, Heath, Jones, Marinez, Myers, Omogrosso, Reed, Santiago, Septimo, Thorton, Veal. There were so many rookie pitchers on the South Side it is hard to tell whether they met or extended their potential. Clearly, Jones and Reed have proven to be quality arms. Whether veterans like Crain, Myers and Thorton will be around next season depends on how badly GM Kenny Williams wants to tinker with the team.
Catchers: Flowers, Gimenez, Pierzynski. Pierzynski is a free agent and he would be difficult to replace. The organization likes Flowers, but he has not come up and grabbed the position from A.J. With a young pitching staff, Pierzynski is like a second pitching coach during games - - - an invaluable member of the coaching staff. Of all the free agents, Pierzynski would be a priority to re-sign.
Infielders: Beckham, Dunn, Hudson, D. Johnson, Konerko, Lopez, Morel, Olmedo, Ramirez and Youkilis. Third base will continue to be a question with injured Morel and free agent Youkilis. Hudson and D. Johnson will not be back next season.
Outfielders: J. Danks, De Aza, Rios, Vicideo and Wise. There is nothing wrong with these five outfielders being on the 2013 opening day roster.
The White Sox end the season with a payroll of around $98 million, which is high for a team that does not draw well. The White Sox have always been organized as a small market team playing in a big city market. The team is already committed to $78.25 million on 8 players.
The White Sox 2013 priorities can be summarized as starting catcher, starting third baseman, #3 starter and middle relievers. It is doubtful that the White Sox have the budget to sign free agents for each need position.
Free agent market will be thin this off season.
Catchers of note include Russell Martin, Mike Napoli, Ronny Paulino, Pierzynski, and Yorvit Torrealba. Martin or Napoli would be a choice, but they will be looking for a long term deal.
Starting third basemen of note include Brandon Inge, Jose Lopez or Scott Rolen, all at the end of their careers.
Starting pitchers of note include Kevin Correia, Zack Greinke, Edwin Jackson, Shaun Marcum, Joe Saunders and Carlos Zambrano. Jackson or Marcum could be possible under the radar selections.
One thing is certain. Kenny Williams takes the cards that he is dealt, and he is willing to reshuffle the deck and gamble on players and prospects. The future looks good for the White Sox.
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