The Dodgers made a surprise move in acquiring Carlos Marmol from the Cubs. The Dodgers made an even more surprising move by designating Marmol for assignment, less than 24 hours after acquiring him.
MLBTR states that Peter Gammons reports that the Dodgers were only interested in the $209.000
international bonus slot they acquired in the deal, not in retaining
Marmol as a member of their bullpen.
The Cubs claimed that the deal gave them some salary relief. But MLBTR indicates that the Dodgers spent about $500K of actual
money to acquire just under $210K of pool money.
So Marmol is in another 10 day limbo period.
UPDATE: New reports indicate that Marmol has already been placed on outright waivers. If no team claims him, the Dodgers can move him to the minors. It was also reported that Marmol has agreed to go to the minor leagues and try to work out his struggles there.
July 3, 2013
BEFORE THE WEAKEND
The Cubs blew out many transactions yesterday like they were itching to get out of town for the long holiday weekend.
Theo Epstein made it clear that he did not like the new collective bargaining agreement. The hard bonus caps and harsh penalties for violations made his job harder to sign young players. His Red Sox Way was to draft players in the third, fourth or fifth round but pay them first round money in order to get them signed. But you cannot do that effectively with the hard cap for the first ten rounds of the draft. Same was true with the international player market. In the past, it was the Wild West, no cap on signing players. But after some scandals and alleged scout kick backs, MLB put in hard cap on international player signings. The one loophole in the CBA was that teams could trade certain of their international slot allowances to other teams. Teams were limited to adding no more than 50% of their full international signing budget.
So the Cubs acquired a net $983,000 in more international signing money. And Theo and his boys went on a shopping spree.
Top international prospect Eloy Jimenez has decided to turn down more money from another club to sign with the Cubs, according to MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez. If true, one has to question the player or his advisors. Jimenez, a 16-year-old outfielder from the Dominican Republic, is regarded as the top international prospect by both Baseball America and MLB.com. Jimenez is 6'4" and 200 pounds, and Baseball America's Ben Badler says that his average raw power and flat swing produce line drives -- a combination that could lead to above-average home run power in the future. MLB.com said Jimenez has one of the best baseball bodies available this year and is considered to be the total package. The teenager has impressed scouts with his intelligence, plus-speed, and gap-to-gap power that is expected to improve as he grows into his body.Jimenez's asking price was reported to be $2.7 million.
The Cubs also signed 16-year-old Venezuelan shortstop Gleyber Torres to a $1.7MM deal according to MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez. Torres ranked second among international prospects on the list from Baseball America's Ben Badler, and third on MLB.com's list. The Cubs also signed Dominican righty Jefferson Mejia for $850K today. He was drafted last season but MLB rejected his contract due to conflict with his age, now believed to be 18.
The Cubs have also secured Colombian right-hander Erling Moreno for $800K, according to Badler. Moreno ranked as BA's No. 16 prospect and MLB.com's No. 17 prospect. The 6'3", 190-pound 16-year-old has touched 90 mph with his fastball and projects to become a power pitcher down the road.
Jimenez, of, $2.7 million.
Gleyber Torres, ss, $1.7 million
Jefferson Mejia, p, $850,000
Erling Moreno, p, $800,000
To summarize, the Cubs spent $ 6 million on Latin American teenagers for whom no one can fully evaluate for another five years. To put it in prospective, the high estimate for annual wages of a worker in the Dominican is $4,000 (US). A person's lifetime earnings projects to be less than $250,000 (US). A U.S. dollar has at least five times the purchasing power as the local currency. These children have blown past their countrymen in earnings for life. In other words, it does not matter whether they make it in baseball - - - they have broken the bank back home.
Which is why international player signings are so risky. Scouting reports are filled with objective information like size, weight, and general information about swing planes, etc. But there is little information on performance, level of competition, or comparison with in game situations. But to the Cubs this appears to be the promised land for new talent.
The Cubs need to find new talent quickly. But the Cubs front office are control freaks who like to have young players they have under contract for multiple years. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes reports that Jake Arrieta (acquired in the Feldman deal) has two year and 99 days of service time, meaning that the Cubs can avoid Super Two arbitration status if he accumulates less than 53 days of service time this season. That is why the Cubs have sent him to Iowa to stop the arbitration clock. If Arrieta picks up fewer than 73 days of service time, he will be controllable through the 2017 season.
But some people doubt whether Arrieta will amount to much. Orioles executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette, Theo's old boss - - - the man who built the Red Sox team that won its first championship, told Jim Bowden of ESPN that he didn't want to trade prospects whose capabilities are unknown at this point. The Orioles traded Arrieta and Pedro Strop to the Cubs because the Orioles believe they know what those arms are capable of (which at the time were plus 7.00 ERAs and control issues). Some have said that in essence, the Cubs traded Feldman for two Carlos Marmols. But in reality, the Cubs traded Feldman for Baltimore's international bonus money.
It is a real Hail Mary strategy to trade major league players for money to acquire little known teenagers. But Peter Gammons said on the radio this morning that this may be the future of baseball. He opined that the NCAA has made it difficult for minority talent to play in college. He believes that there is a real deficiency in positional player talent at NCAA schools that only international markets such as Latin America can fill. He admitted that many front office personnel cannot say how well an international player will be; they tell him "ask me that question six years from now."
For Cub fans excited that the team is spending big money on prospects, they need to be aware that strategy pushes part of the rebuilding process back to 2019 for tangible results for these new players.
Theo Epstein made it clear that he did not like the new collective bargaining agreement. The hard bonus caps and harsh penalties for violations made his job harder to sign young players. His Red Sox Way was to draft players in the third, fourth or fifth round but pay them first round money in order to get them signed. But you cannot do that effectively with the hard cap for the first ten rounds of the draft. Same was true with the international player market. In the past, it was the Wild West, no cap on signing players. But after some scandals and alleged scout kick backs, MLB put in hard cap on international player signings. The one loophole in the CBA was that teams could trade certain of their international slot allowances to other teams. Teams were limited to adding no more than 50% of their full international signing budget.
So the Cubs acquired a net $983,000 in more international signing money. And Theo and his boys went on a shopping spree.
Top international prospect Eloy Jimenez has decided to turn down more money from another club to sign with the Cubs, according to MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez. If true, one has to question the player or his advisors. Jimenez, a 16-year-old outfielder from the Dominican Republic, is regarded as the top international prospect by both Baseball America and MLB.com. Jimenez is 6'4" and 200 pounds, and Baseball America's Ben Badler says that his average raw power and flat swing produce line drives -- a combination that could lead to above-average home run power in the future. MLB.com said Jimenez has one of the best baseball bodies available this year and is considered to be the total package. The teenager has impressed scouts with his intelligence, plus-speed, and gap-to-gap power that is expected to improve as he grows into his body.Jimenez's asking price was reported to be $2.7 million.
The Cubs also signed 16-year-old Venezuelan shortstop Gleyber Torres to a $1.7MM deal according to MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez. Torres ranked second among international prospects on the list from Baseball America's Ben Badler, and third on MLB.com's list. The Cubs also signed Dominican righty Jefferson Mejia for $850K today. He was drafted last season but MLB rejected his contract due to conflict with his age, now believed to be 18.
The Cubs have also secured Colombian right-hander Erling Moreno for $800K, according to Badler. Moreno ranked as BA's No. 16 prospect and MLB.com's No. 17 prospect. The 6'3", 190-pound 16-year-old has touched 90 mph with his fastball and projects to become a power pitcher down the road.
Jimenez, of, $2.7 million.
Gleyber Torres, ss, $1.7 million
Jefferson Mejia, p, $850,000
Erling Moreno, p, $800,000
To summarize, the Cubs spent $ 6 million on Latin American teenagers for whom no one can fully evaluate for another five years. To put it in prospective, the high estimate for annual wages of a worker in the Dominican is $4,000 (US). A person's lifetime earnings projects to be less than $250,000 (US). A U.S. dollar has at least five times the purchasing power as the local currency. These children have blown past their countrymen in earnings for life. In other words, it does not matter whether they make it in baseball - - - they have broken the bank back home.
Which is why international player signings are so risky. Scouting reports are filled with objective information like size, weight, and general information about swing planes, etc. But there is little information on performance, level of competition, or comparison with in game situations. But to the Cubs this appears to be the promised land for new talent.
The Cubs need to find new talent quickly. But the Cubs front office are control freaks who like to have young players they have under contract for multiple years. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes reports that Jake Arrieta (acquired in the Feldman deal) has two year and 99 days of service time, meaning that the Cubs can avoid Super Two arbitration status if he accumulates less than 53 days of service time this season. That is why the Cubs have sent him to Iowa to stop the arbitration clock. If Arrieta picks up fewer than 73 days of service time, he will be controllable through the 2017 season.
But some people doubt whether Arrieta will amount to much. Orioles executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette, Theo's old boss - - - the man who built the Red Sox team that won its first championship, told Jim Bowden of ESPN that he didn't want to trade prospects whose capabilities are unknown at this point. The Orioles traded Arrieta and Pedro Strop to the Cubs because the Orioles believe they know what those arms are capable of (which at the time were plus 7.00 ERAs and control issues). Some have said that in essence, the Cubs traded Feldman for two Carlos Marmols. But in reality, the Cubs traded Feldman for Baltimore's international bonus money.
It is a real Hail Mary strategy to trade major league players for money to acquire little known teenagers. But Peter Gammons said on the radio this morning that this may be the future of baseball. He opined that the NCAA has made it difficult for minority talent to play in college. He believes that there is a real deficiency in positional player talent at NCAA schools that only international markets such as Latin America can fill. He admitted that many front office personnel cannot say how well an international player will be; they tell him "ask me that question six years from now."
For Cub fans excited that the team is spending big money on prospects, they need to be aware that strategy pushes part of the rebuilding process back to 2019 for tangible results for these new players.
July 2, 2013
MORE MONEY
The Cubs have been quite busy in trying to acquire international pool money like a heroin addict trying to find loose change under bus terminal seats.
The latest report is that the Cubs acquired two of the Astros' international bonus pool slots ($784,700) for minor league second baseman Ronald Torreyes. MLBTR reports the Cubs' net pool money gain is $963,100 today, bringing their total to $5,520,300.
Torreyes, 20, came to the Cubs from the Reds in the December 2011 Sean Marshall trade for Travis Wood and Dave Sappelt, who coincidentally was recalled by the Cubs today to replace outfielder Ryan Sweeney. Sweeney broke a rib on an outfield catch last week. Torreyes has a .260/.337/.381 line in 264 Double-A plate appearances.
Epstein and Hoyer want to go on an expensive international spending spree. Generally, the players they are targeting are around 17 years old. They will have a longer development time frame than U.S. high school or college players. The underlying theme of the front office is still "over spend" where possible. They are looking to leverage current players for more international spending money. Whether this new strategy will work, we will have to wait at least five years to find out.
The latest report is that the Cubs acquired two of the Astros' international bonus pool slots ($784,700) for minor league second baseman Ronald Torreyes. MLBTR reports the Cubs' net pool money gain is $963,100 today, bringing their total to $5,520,300.
Torreyes, 20, came to the Cubs from the Reds in the December 2011 Sean Marshall trade for Travis Wood and Dave Sappelt, who coincidentally was recalled by the Cubs today to replace outfielder Ryan Sweeney. Sweeney broke a rib on an outfield catch last week. Torreyes has a .260/.337/.381 line in 264 Double-A plate appearances.
Epstein and Hoyer want to go on an expensive international spending spree. Generally, the players they are targeting are around 17 years old. They will have a longer development time frame than U.S. high school or college players. The underlying theme of the front office is still "over spend" where possible. They are looking to leverage current players for more international spending money. Whether this new strategy will work, we will have to wait at least five years to find out.
TRADING TRASH
The Cubs finalized the trade of Carlos Marmol to the Dodgers.
The Cubs had 10 days to trade or release Marmol after designating him for assignment. The Dodgers decided to acquire Marmol using a player it had also designated for assignment, reliever Mark Guerrier.
Guerrier has not pitched full time since 2011. This season, in 34 appearances, he was 2-3, 4.80 ERA, 1.467 WHIP, 1.75 K/BB ratio in 30 IP.
Guerrier, 34, for his career has gone 25-33 with 112 holds, six saves and 3.54 ERA in 513 major league appearances.
Marmol is owed more than $5 million on his $9.8 million for this season, and reports indicate the Dodgers will absorb some of the money owed Marmol on the last year of his contract.
The other part of the deal of note is that the Dodgers received $209,000 from the Cubs international signing bonus pool money. As with the Torreyes deal today, the Cubs needed to acquire international bonus pool cap money in order to sign the number one international player. But they needed to sweeten the Dodger deal to get some minimum salary relief on Marmol (approximately $1 million).
The Cubs had 10 days to trade or release Marmol after designating him for assignment. The Dodgers decided to acquire Marmol using a player it had also designated for assignment, reliever Mark Guerrier.
Guerrier has not pitched full time since 2011. This season, in 34 appearances, he was 2-3, 4.80 ERA, 1.467 WHIP, 1.75 K/BB ratio in 30 IP.
Guerrier, 34, for his career has gone 25-33 with 112 holds, six saves and 3.54 ERA in 513 major league appearances.
Marmol is owed more than $5 million on his $9.8 million for this season, and reports indicate the Dodgers will absorb some of the money owed Marmol on the last year of his contract.
The other part of the deal of note is that the Dodgers received $209,000 from the Cubs international signing bonus pool money. As with the Torreyes deal today, the Cubs needed to acquire international bonus pool cap money in order to sign the number one international player. But they needed to sweeten the Dodger deal to get some minimum salary relief on Marmol (approximately $1 million).
MARTY FELDMAN COMEDY OF ERRORS
The Cubs traded starter Scott Feldman to the Orioles for a failed former starter turned bitter relief pitcher with an attitude, Jake Arrieta, and some of Baltimore's "international bonus pool" money ($388,100) in the hopes of signing Baseball America's #1 foreign prospect, Eloy Jimenez.
The Cubs receive Jake Arrieta, a 27 year old pitcher. This season, Arrieta is 1-2, 7.23 ERA, 1,775 WHIP and 1.35 K/BB ratio. In his four year major league career of 69 games, he has career stats of 20-25, 5.46 ERA, 1.472 WHIP. His career WAR is zero. The only bright side is that he is paid the minimum salary. He is only the warm body needed in order to get the international bonus money in a "trade." Also included in the deal, the Cubs sent catcher Steve Clevenger and the Orioles gave the Cubs reliever Pedro Strop.
Strop, 28, had an excellent 2012 (2.44 ERA in 70 relief appearances) but has a 7.25 ERA in 22 1/3 innings in 2013, largely due to high walk (15) and home run (4) totals. Clevenger appeared in 79 games with the Cubs between 2011 and 2013 and hit .199 with a .262 on-base percentage and .275 slugging percentage.
MLB.com calls Jimenez the best prospect in this signing period. Jimenez, 16, called the "crown jewel of Dominican Republic baseball," is a tall and awkward teenager trying to find his way in the world into a 6-foot-4, 198-pound specimen who knows exactly what he wants to do with his life. He is an outfielder.
However, scouting reports are sketchy on him. One writer states that Jimenez he wants to be like his idol, Roberto Clemente. Scouts praise Jimenez's speed, gap-to-gap power (which is expected to grow), quick hands and baseball intelligence to be a corner outfielder.
But at age 16, he will not be on any major league roster for five years.
The Cubs have been looking to deal for international cap money for more than a week. It was rumored that part of the Marmol deal is to get international bonus money in trade in order to pay Jimenez his reported $2.7 million demand.
So the Cubs are basically trading a quality major league starting pitcher for a 16 year old outfielder.
Critics will call it not rebuilding but a fantasy moneyballer on crack. Not one of the Epstein-Hoyer international signees has made a lasting impact in the minor leagues. This trade is so far down the spectrum from even the Sean Marshall for T. Wood deal. Wood had limited major league experience and was AAA tested or major league ready. That is the blueprint on how to build a pitching staff; trading major leaguers for players just on the cusp of contributing for your team. It seems the Cubs shortsided themselves by needing international pool money quickly since Feldman could have gotten the Cubs ready major league prospects in return.
The Cubs receive Jake Arrieta, a 27 year old pitcher. This season, Arrieta is 1-2, 7.23 ERA, 1,775 WHIP and 1.35 K/BB ratio. In his four year major league career of 69 games, he has career stats of 20-25, 5.46 ERA, 1.472 WHIP. His career WAR is zero. The only bright side is that he is paid the minimum salary. He is only the warm body needed in order to get the international bonus money in a "trade." Also included in the deal, the Cubs sent catcher Steve Clevenger and the Orioles gave the Cubs reliever Pedro Strop.
Strop, 28, had an excellent 2012 (2.44 ERA in 70 relief appearances) but has a 7.25 ERA in 22 1/3 innings in 2013, largely due to high walk (15) and home run (4) totals. Clevenger appeared in 79 games with the Cubs between 2011 and 2013 and hit .199 with a .262 on-base percentage and .275 slugging percentage.
MLB.com calls Jimenez the best prospect in this signing period. Jimenez, 16, called the "crown jewel of Dominican Republic baseball," is a tall and awkward teenager trying to find his way in the world into a 6-foot-4, 198-pound specimen who knows exactly what he wants to do with his life. He is an outfielder.
However, scouting reports are sketchy on him. One writer states that Jimenez he wants to be like his idol, Roberto Clemente. Scouts praise Jimenez's speed, gap-to-gap power (which is expected to grow), quick hands and baseball intelligence to be a corner outfielder.
But at age 16, he will not be on any major league roster for five years.
The Cubs have been looking to deal for international cap money for more than a week. It was rumored that part of the Marmol deal is to get international bonus money in trade in order to pay Jimenez his reported $2.7 million demand.
So the Cubs are basically trading a quality major league starting pitcher for a 16 year old outfielder.
Critics will call it not rebuilding but a fantasy moneyballer on crack. Not one of the Epstein-Hoyer international signees has made a lasting impact in the minor leagues. This trade is so far down the spectrum from even the Sean Marshall for T. Wood deal. Wood had limited major league experience and was AAA tested or major league ready. That is the blueprint on how to build a pitching staff; trading major leaguers for players just on the cusp of contributing for your team. It seems the Cubs shortsided themselves by needing international pool money quickly since Feldman could have gotten the Cubs ready major league prospects in return.
BUILDING A STAFF
The Cubs have the hottest pitching commodity this season. Matt Garza will be traded before the deadline according to multiple news reports. Since returning to from the disabled list, Garza is 3-1.
The Cubs plan continues to be to sell off roster players in exchange for multiple prospects. In addition, in the past two drafts, the Cubs have selected more than 25 pitchers. However, the "best" two pitching prospects are questionable. Arodys Vizcaino, acquired from Atlanta for Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson, has not pitched since 2011. He has had another set back in his recovery from Tommy John surgery. There is a chance that he may not pitch again. The other pitcher, Dillon Maples, has also had injury concerns which has kept him muddling around in Class A ball with very few starts. This season in 7 starts, he is 0-2, 7.89 ERA, 1.888 WHIP. Other recent high picks like Duane Underwood or Paul Blackburn are not lighting up their professional debuts. They are projected to move slowly up the minors to Iowa in 2015-2016. However, they may not be any better when they arrive than a Casey Coleman.
So the front office has stubbornly decided that the sign and flip starter pitchers will continue until the team can field a "home grown" staff of aces. That may be the plan, but it is also a high risk strategy that will explode in your face if your scouts and minor league coaches miss on the skill sets of those young pitchers.
The Cubs want to build a quality starting rotation. Every team does. Here is an outline of a solid starting pitching staff:
SP #1, age 28, 3.34 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 3.24 K/BB ratio
SP #2, age 26, 2.85 ERA, 0.997 WHIP, 2.34 K/BB ratio
SP #3, age 30, 3.46 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 2.68 K/BB ratio
SP# 4, age 29, 3.83 ERA, 1.115 WHIP, 3.13 K/BB ratio
SP #5, age 29, 3.59 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 2.83 K/BB ratio
SP #6, age 29, 5.75 ERA, 1.540 WHIP, 2.32 K/BB ratio
It is doubtful that any general manager in baseball would not want to have such a starting pitching staff. Collectively, they are young, have excellent control and below average ERAs.
The example starting pitching staff is actually a real 2013 squad.
The surprise is that is example staff is the Chicago Cubs. (SP1 = Samardzija; SP2 = T. Wood; SP3 = Feldman; SP4 = Garza; SP5 = Villanueva; SP 6= E. Jackson).
Samardzija is a former reliever who found his control as a starter. T. Wood was a pick up in a trade. Feldman was a reconstruction project after Texas cut him due to control issues. Garza was part of a trade package. Villanueva was a free agent signing. And E. Jackson was the team's "big money" long term free agent signing. Only Samardzija was a "home grown" product (from a different regime).
Realistically, there is not one player at AAA or AA that can take the place of any of the Cubs top 6 starting pitchers.
The front office also boxed itself into a corner. Samardzija is arbitration eligible and will command high seven figures. Garza is looking for a pay increase toward the qualifying offer number of $13 million. Feldman only signed a one year deal so he will hit the free agent market to make Samardzija money. And the worst performing pitcher, E. Jackson, is locked in for another $ 39 million through 2016 season.
The Cubs signed a bunch of pitchers with injury or control issues in the hopes that they could have a better than average start so they could trade them in July. The irony is that the Cubs built a quality starting rotation but did not think they'd be this good. But they still need to blow up the staff because the team cannot afford to keep everyone.
Or so they say.
There are a few fans who believe that they have seen the lack of progress in the Cubs minor league system under the new front office to be worried. Other small market teams like the Orioles and Rays continue to bring up young 22-23 year old starters who have an immediate impact. These fans would rather "keep what you know" than hope your prospects will pan out in the long term future.
The front office has droned on that the team needs to have more pitching and depth of pitching in order to have a solid organization.
So if Garza is being sold as a quality starter, a staff ace, why wouldn't the Cubs want to lock in such a player?
The front office continues to push back the "contending" year in the rebuilding plan. Based upon the slow progress of the new prospects, it may be 2017 when Baez, Soler, Almora or Maples is "ready" for the big leagues. So Ricketts is not willing to spend $13 million per current starter for the next four years when the positional roster will not have any quality impact players.
By analogy, if one is going to rebuild a house, the builder does not piece meal the project. He does not take off a section of roof shingles, then stops and goes to dig up some landscaping. If a new roof is a priority, he rebuilds the roof right away to prevent further damage to the interior of the house. Then the builder tackles the exterior siding and then interior elements and upgrades.
The Cubs have four basic areas to rebuild: starting pitching, starting position players, bullpen, and utility bench players. At best, there may be one or two players at Iowa who can plug in a bullpen or bench slot next season. The current roster is filled with bench players who are actually trying to start or platoon. The Cubs have already rebuilt the starting rotation with quality arms, so the biggest problem and concern has been solved IF the team keeps it together. The Cubs could turn it around quickly in 2014 if they sign impact free agent outfielder, (like a Choo) second baseman (like a Cano) and Kris Bryant is the real deal and can play third right away.
But there is a clear signal from the Cubs that ownership is tightening the payroll budgets in order to pay for the Wrigley renovations. Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein have down played being active in the free agent markets in the next few years. They stress the draft and international player signings.
The Cubs appear that they will not stop and consider that their main problem, starting pitching, has been be solved if they keep the starting rotation in tact. They are saying that it is better to trade or release these current starters because they will not be good when the team is ready to compete. But the Cubs could compete right now, if the front office can fix the offensive woes of the starting eight in the field.
The Cubs plan continues to be to sell off roster players in exchange for multiple prospects. In addition, in the past two drafts, the Cubs have selected more than 25 pitchers. However, the "best" two pitching prospects are questionable. Arodys Vizcaino, acquired from Atlanta for Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson, has not pitched since 2011. He has had another set back in his recovery from Tommy John surgery. There is a chance that he may not pitch again. The other pitcher, Dillon Maples, has also had injury concerns which has kept him muddling around in Class A ball with very few starts. This season in 7 starts, he is 0-2, 7.89 ERA, 1.888 WHIP. Other recent high picks like Duane Underwood or Paul Blackburn are not lighting up their professional debuts. They are projected to move slowly up the minors to Iowa in 2015-2016. However, they may not be any better when they arrive than a Casey Coleman.
So the front office has stubbornly decided that the sign and flip starter pitchers will continue until the team can field a "home grown" staff of aces. That may be the plan, but it is also a high risk strategy that will explode in your face if your scouts and minor league coaches miss on the skill sets of those young pitchers.
The Cubs want to build a quality starting rotation. Every team does. Here is an outline of a solid starting pitching staff:
SP #1, age 28, 3.34 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 3.24 K/BB ratio
SP #2, age 26, 2.85 ERA, 0.997 WHIP, 2.34 K/BB ratio
SP #3, age 30, 3.46 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 2.68 K/BB ratio
SP# 4, age 29, 3.83 ERA, 1.115 WHIP, 3.13 K/BB ratio
SP #5, age 29, 3.59 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 2.83 K/BB ratio
SP #6, age 29, 5.75 ERA, 1.540 WHIP, 2.32 K/BB ratio
It is doubtful that any general manager in baseball would not want to have such a starting pitching staff. Collectively, they are young, have excellent control and below average ERAs.
The example starting pitching staff is actually a real 2013 squad.
The surprise is that is example staff is the Chicago Cubs. (SP1 = Samardzija; SP2 = T. Wood; SP3 = Feldman; SP4 = Garza; SP5 = Villanueva; SP 6= E. Jackson).
Samardzija is a former reliever who found his control as a starter. T. Wood was a pick up in a trade. Feldman was a reconstruction project after Texas cut him due to control issues. Garza was part of a trade package. Villanueva was a free agent signing. And E. Jackson was the team's "big money" long term free agent signing. Only Samardzija was a "home grown" product (from a different regime).
Realistically, there is not one player at AAA or AA that can take the place of any of the Cubs top 6 starting pitchers.
The front office also boxed itself into a corner. Samardzija is arbitration eligible and will command high seven figures. Garza is looking for a pay increase toward the qualifying offer number of $13 million. Feldman only signed a one year deal so he will hit the free agent market to make Samardzija money. And the worst performing pitcher, E. Jackson, is locked in for another $ 39 million through 2016 season.
The Cubs signed a bunch of pitchers with injury or control issues in the hopes that they could have a better than average start so they could trade them in July. The irony is that the Cubs built a quality starting rotation but did not think they'd be this good. But they still need to blow up the staff because the team cannot afford to keep everyone.
Or so they say.
There are a few fans who believe that they have seen the lack of progress in the Cubs minor league system under the new front office to be worried. Other small market teams like the Orioles and Rays continue to bring up young 22-23 year old starters who have an immediate impact. These fans would rather "keep what you know" than hope your prospects will pan out in the long term future.
The front office has droned on that the team needs to have more pitching and depth of pitching in order to have a solid organization.
So if Garza is being sold as a quality starter, a staff ace, why wouldn't the Cubs want to lock in such a player?
The front office continues to push back the "contending" year in the rebuilding plan. Based upon the slow progress of the new prospects, it may be 2017 when Baez, Soler, Almora or Maples is "ready" for the big leagues. So Ricketts is not willing to spend $13 million per current starter for the next four years when the positional roster will not have any quality impact players.
By analogy, if one is going to rebuild a house, the builder does not piece meal the project. He does not take off a section of roof shingles, then stops and goes to dig up some landscaping. If a new roof is a priority, he rebuilds the roof right away to prevent further damage to the interior of the house. Then the builder tackles the exterior siding and then interior elements and upgrades.
The Cubs have four basic areas to rebuild: starting pitching, starting position players, bullpen, and utility bench players. At best, there may be one or two players at Iowa who can plug in a bullpen or bench slot next season. The current roster is filled with bench players who are actually trying to start or platoon. The Cubs have already rebuilt the starting rotation with quality arms, so the biggest problem and concern has been solved IF the team keeps it together. The Cubs could turn it around quickly in 2014 if they sign impact free agent outfielder, (like a Choo) second baseman (like a Cano) and Kris Bryant is the real deal and can play third right away.
But there is a clear signal from the Cubs that ownership is tightening the payroll budgets in order to pay for the Wrigley renovations. Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein have down played being active in the free agent markets in the next few years. They stress the draft and international player signings.
The Cubs appear that they will not stop and consider that their main problem, starting pitching, has been be solved if they keep the starting rotation in tact. They are saying that it is better to trade or release these current starters because they will not be good when the team is ready to compete. But the Cubs could compete right now, if the front office can fix the offensive woes of the starting eight in the field.
July 1, 2013
WORST YEAR
When the Cleveland Indians swept the four game White Sox home series, it was the first time the Tribe had done so since 1948.
1948 was a historic season for Chicago baseball. The Cubs and White Sox lost a combined 191 games.
The Cubs are currently 35-45, a .438 winning percentage. Surprisingly, the White Sox are 32-47, a .405 winning percentage. If they continue their current trends, the teams are on pace for a combined 187 losses.
The Cubs were expected to be bad. The team continues its annual fire sale of veterans for prospects after signing numerous players with injuries (like Scott Baker) to rehab and flip like distressed foreclosed houses. The plan to sign marginal players for the major league roster to stock the minor league system with more depth has begun to annoy the fan base, who more and more are not coming to see the team at Wrigley.
The White Sox were expected to hover around the wild card slot like they did last season. The same veteran core was present this season. The team thought it stabilized third base with the acquisition of Jeff Keppinger. He had been a disappointment. More disappointing has been the defense's collapse and lack of offense. The team seems lackluster and old with little drive.
National columnists believe that both teams want to be active at the trade deadline. The White Sox have relievers (Crain, Thorton, Lindstrom) who many teams would like to bolster their bullpens for the stretch drive in September. The Cubs have starting pitching on sale (Garza, Feldman). The Cubs are also filled with a roster of Reed Johnson type role players (Ransom, Navarro, Hairston, Valbuena) that may be valuable to a club looking for a defender or pinch hitting specialist.
After the trade dust settles, it will be clear that both teams will have a long way to go to rebuild their squads.
1948 was a historic season for Chicago baseball. The Cubs and White Sox lost a combined 191 games.
The Cubs are currently 35-45, a .438 winning percentage. Surprisingly, the White Sox are 32-47, a .405 winning percentage. If they continue their current trends, the teams are on pace for a combined 187 losses.
The Cubs were expected to be bad. The team continues its annual fire sale of veterans for prospects after signing numerous players with injuries (like Scott Baker) to rehab and flip like distressed foreclosed houses. The plan to sign marginal players for the major league roster to stock the minor league system with more depth has begun to annoy the fan base, who more and more are not coming to see the team at Wrigley.
The White Sox were expected to hover around the wild card slot like they did last season. The same veteran core was present this season. The team thought it stabilized third base with the acquisition of Jeff Keppinger. He had been a disappointment. More disappointing has been the defense's collapse and lack of offense. The team seems lackluster and old with little drive.
National columnists believe that both teams want to be active at the trade deadline. The White Sox have relievers (Crain, Thorton, Lindstrom) who many teams would like to bolster their bullpens for the stretch drive in September. The Cubs have starting pitching on sale (Garza, Feldman). The Cubs are also filled with a roster of Reed Johnson type role players (Ransom, Navarro, Hairston, Valbuena) that may be valuable to a club looking for a defender or pinch hitting specialist.
After the trade dust settles, it will be clear that both teams will have a long way to go to rebuild their squads.
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