When pitchers report today, Epstein and Hoyer have decided to do the shotgun approach: bring in as many arms as possible and see who can stick. And at the same time, rumors persist that Matt Garza, the #1 starter, is still available in trade.
A look at the patchwork quilt that will become the pitching staff:
STARTERS:
Garza, Maholm, Dempster, T. Wood, Volstad, Wells, Sonnanstine, Coleman, R. Lopez, J. Jackson, McNutt.
Clearly, Garza is the #1 starter barring trade or injury.
Maholm, the newly acquired lefty, should be the #2 starter based on age and ERA.
Dempster, a fan favorite, has had his skills diminished but on this roster he is the #3 or #4 starter.
T. Wood, another newly acquired lefty, will be the #4 starter if he can regain rookie form.
The fifth starter job appears to be wide open.
Under the old guard (Hendry guys) competiting for that final spot: Wells, Coleman, Lopez with long shots for rookies J. Jackson and McNutt who did not progress well last season in the minors. Based on the fact that new management is hell bent on clearing out the old GM inventory, these players would have to overachieve in order to get a shot on the 25 man roster. It also appears that Wells may have one minor league option left, along with Coleman, so the plan could be to send them to Iowa for insurance.
The New Guys new guys: Volstad and Sonnanstine. Volstad appears to have the inside track as the quasi-replacement player for Zambrano. Sonnanstine is another player looking to regain form as either a starter or long reliever.
If camp ended today, the rotation would be: 1) Garza, 2) Maholm, 3) Dempster, 4) T. Wood, 5) Volstad.
Is that an improvement from last season? We suspect in Epstein's mind it is as Maholm is an upgrade over Zambrano and T. Wood or Volstad is an upgrade over Wells and the committee of failure in the 5th starter role when Cashner got hurt.
RELIEVERS:
Caridad, Carrillo, Corpas, T. Miller, Parker, Beliveau, Cabreara, C. Carpenter, L. Castillo, Dolis, Gaub, Maine, Marmol, Mateo, Russell, Samardzija, Weathers, K. Wood
New pitching coach Chris Bosio has his work cut out for him trying to piece together new confidence and mechanics into closer Carlos Marmol. Marmol was overworked by Quade. Marmol only used his wild slider, which caused him serious problems. But Marmol is the closer until further notice (his salary and control issues make him a less likely trade candidate than Garza).
With Sean Marshall traded, the key set-up man role (8th inning) will fall to this group: K. Wood and Samardzija. Samardzija is again being touted by the brass to convert to a starter, but that would be another mistake. He does not have the pitches to be an effective starter. There are concerns that converting him now will result in Cashner style injuries. The media PR campaign got Kerry Wood re-signed by the Cubs, but under the surface I don't think Hoyer wanted to bring back another old, fragile Cub.
The old guard (Hendry's guys) looking for a bullpen spot:
Right handers: Caridad, Carrillo, Parker, Cabrera, C. Carpenter, Dolis, Mateo (who is out of options)
Left handers: Beliveau, Gaub, Maine, Russell
The power arms are Carpenter, Dolis and Mateo. Caridad is coming off an injury season. Parker and Cabrera are mere prospects. The real interest will be in the lefties. Who will replace Marshall? Will the Cubs have a lefty specialist? Last year's lefty specialist was Russell, but his awful starts mess up his stats. Gaub may get a long look and the long shot is Beliveau.
The New Guys new guys:
Right handers: Corpas, L. Castillo, Weathers
Left hander: T. Miller
In two words: scrap heap. The veterans brought in by the new GM are all cast offs or injured players hoping that they can regain their form from years gone by. Corpas, a former closer, has not pitched well in more than three seasons. Weathers has had major control problems. Miller, 38, was a three team journeyman last season and had a horrible 1.851 WHIP. Castillo, 22, is a converted infielder to pitcher so he is a major work in progress since he has only pitched in Class A. Weathers, 26, lost his control and has struggled in Class AA last season. He finished 19 games but had no saves. His 1.752 WHIP and 5.32 ERA are horrible for a bullpen pitcher. He would be a major reclamation project. So none of Epstein-Hoyer's new reliever signees have any real shot at making the club (unless it is merely spite for spite's sake.)
We assume that the Cubs will continue to carry 12 pitchers. That means 7 bullpen players. As it stands today, this is the most probable pen for 2012:
Closer: Marmol
8th inning set up man: K. Wood
7th inning: Samardzija
Middle reliever: Carpenter
Lefty specialist: Russell
Long reliever: Sonnanstine
Left handed swing man: Maine
Is this pen better than last season? With the subtraction of Marshall and Cashner, the answer is no.
