May 31, 2013

CRAZY STAT

The crazy stat floating around this morning's airwaves is the fact that the Cubs pitchers have driven in 19 RBIs in the month of May. Supposedly the record for a pitching staff for a month is 20.

Cubs pitchers, still buzzing over Travis Wood's grand slam, have hit 4 HRs and driven in 19 RBI. Starting left fielder Alfonso Soriano has hit 5 HR and driven in 20 RBI since the start of the season.

Modernists decry the National League for not having the designated hitter. The main reason they like the DH is because the 9th spot is usually a guaranteed out because that is where the pitcher's bat.

But the Cubs starters have made it clear that pitchers can also be hitters. It is sort of a backasswards Cub tradition: having good hitting pitchers like Carlos Zambrano or Jason Marquis.




Age G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS








Travis Wood 26 14 26 24 5 7 1 0 2 7 1 0 1 8 .292 .320 .583 .903








Scott Feldman* 30 10 25 24 2 4 2 0 1 6 0 0 0 8 .167 .167 .375 .542








Jeff Samardzija 28 11 23 17 3 2 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 10 .118 .167 .353 .520








Carlos Villanueva 29 11 19 17 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 .176 .176 .176 .353








Edwin Jackson 29 10 17 15 1 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 6 .067 .067 .133 .200








Matt Garza 29 2 3 3 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 .333 .333 .667 1.000






May 30, 2013

DRAFT STOCK

As any sports draft approaches, rumors and discussions of whose "draft stock" is rising is reported in the sports pages (or in the world of modern technology, tweets).

UNC third baseman Colin Moran is moving up draft boards and some say he might even go first overall to the Astros, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.  However, Jonathan Gray, Mark Appel, and Kris Bryant are rated as the top three players in the draft by most scouting organizations.

If the Astros believe Moran is a more overall polished third baseman (offense and defense) than Bryant, and possibly cheaper from a signing bonus perspective, that would give the Cubs the best power hitter in the draft in Bryant.  The Astros last season picked a high schooler with the first selection and unpaid the slot value in order conserve the draft budget to sign two other selections above their slot values. It gave them three signable high quality first round picks.

The word out of Iowa is that Josh Vitters is back on the DL. But the same reports indicate that Ian Stewart is still languishing on the bench. The Iowa Cubs have been playing utility infielders at third over Stewart. This means that the Cubs have basically given up on Stewart. He is no longer in the major league plans. It means that the Cubs are even more desperate to solve their third base sink hole.

It was unthinkable two weeks ago that two third basemen could be drafted 1-2, ahead of star pitchers Appel and Gray. As indicated in earlier posts, most scouts and draft rooms believe that drafting position players is less risk than drafting power pitchers. However, finding an ace starter is extremely hard to do so that is why the lure of finding the next Verlander, Strasburg, Kershaw or Darvish is so appealing to general managers.

There is no fast rule that a "can't miss" label on a draft choice will make the major league and have an excellent career, but both Bryant and Moran project to major league talent. Either could anchor third base for a team for a decade. When was the last time the Cubs had a fixture at third base? Aramis Ramirez? Bill Madlock? Ron Santo?!

So my view continues to be that the Cubs should select a third baseman with the #2 pick in this June's draft. If Moran is taken by the Astros, the Cubs should take Bryant. If Bryant is taken by the Astros, then the Cubs should pick Moran. If the Astros pick someone else, the Cubs should flip a coin between Bryant and Moran (I still favor Bryant for the power stats which is also lacking in the Cub lineup).

UPDATE: ESPN's Keith Law's latest mock draft has Moran being picked by the Astros #1.   Law doesn't think Houston will make a formal decision on the pick until Thursday, but he reports that the buzz within the industry has them leaning towards Moran.  Law goes on to explain the Astro's business draft model. Because Moran is on most draft boards going at around the No. 5 slot (worth $3.8 million) the Astros could offer Moran $4 million (more than he would have made at No. 5) and then use the $3 million in first slot savings to sign other picks later on in the first few rounds (who may have had signability issues) by overpaying their next slot values at #40 and #76.

Law also states that if the Astros took a pitcher like Gray, Houston  wouldn't pocket much savings for their next few picks. Law states that the Astros are not interested in either Appel,  or top rated high school outfielder Clint Frazier.

SECOND UPDATE:
Sports Illustrated posts this afternoon its latest mock draft by Dave Perkin, whose resume contains work as a professional baseball scout or the New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers and Baseball America.

Perkin has Bryant going #1 to the Astros, followed by Gray to the Cubs, Appel to the Rockies and then Frazier to the Twins.

Perkin is using his knowledge and experience to pick his board while Law uses his experience and talking with teams and scouts to project who will be selected in the draft. There may be misinformation to conceal what is actually happening, either through team representatives (to hide targets) or by agents (trying to pump up their clients demand). What is emerging is that the Astros probably will not select a pitcher with the first pick.

May 29, 2013

MORE BULLPEN BLUES

If Kevin Gregg was angling to stay with the Cubs after this season, he is the only person catching a break today.

The Cubs announced today that Kyuji Fujikawa, the $9.5 million closer signed through 2015, will undergo Tommy John surgery. This means Fujikawa will be out for the rest of this season and probably all of 2014. Fujikawa was signed in a two-year deal because Carlos Marmol's large contract expires at the end of 2013.

With Scott Baker, Shawn Camp, and Arodys Vizcaino already on the disabled list (with Baker and Vizacaino listed on the 60 day DL), the Cubs current pitching staff has very little parts for next year.

The current bullpen is Alex Burnett, a waiver claim; Rafael Dolis, an up and down AAA reliever; Carlos Marmol, who playing out his contract; Kevin Gregg, a released free agent pick up; Hector Rondon, a Rule 5 player that has to be kept on the full season roster; James Russell, who is on pace to meet Camp's wear and tear 80 game appearance mark; and Carlos Villanueva, a good starter who was put into long relief when Matt Garza returned to the roster.

Prior to today, the only bullpen pitchers who would be a lock to return next year would have been  Russell and Villanueva (with Rondon being assigned to AA). Now with no closer set for next year, Gregg becomes an immediate candidate.

RESPECT AND REALITY

Some long time observers of the Cubs doldrums believe that the players find playing on the North Side a comfortable summer job. There is little pressure to succeed because there is no accountability for poor play. There is a culture of losing which is accepted by everyone surrounding the team.

Then there are those who believe the Cubs are a) a good team that is just unlucky; b) has talent but is snake bitten in critical game situations or c) is a good product that should be respected by the fans.

ESPN Chicago reports that Kevin Gregg is one of the latter's prophets. When asked about being a potential trade chip, Gregg was snippy with his answer.  “I almost look at it as a little disrespectful to the guys on the team that are here because this is a good product,” Gregg said. "This isn’t like we’re getting our butts kicked on a daily basis and they’re looking to clean house. ... To be looking at what the future holds in June or July is worthless to me.”

Gregg's assessment of the Cubs as being a good product is wrong. The Cubs are 20-30, that is only a winning percentage of forty. The Cubs are on pace to lose 97 games. Those are not objective markers of being a "good" team.

Gregg should be happy that he may be a "wanted" player. His career peaked in 2010 with the Blue Jays when he got 37 saves. He continued on his journey man role to Baltimore. He was cut after last season. He hooked on with the Dodgers in spring training but never made the team so he was released.  Gregg is 34 years old and had lost his closing duties until the desperate Cubs needed someone to fill their shaky bullpen. He had come in to throw strikes in the 9th. He is six for six in save opportunities.

The trade deadline is more for massaging rosters than block buster deals. Contending teams are always looking to shore up their bullpen for the last two months. If Gregg continues to perform well, he will be a sought after commodity at the trade deadline. He may not like the idea of moving to another city, but that is the life of a journey man pitcher.



May 28, 2013

PLAN C

Reliever and potential early season closer Fujikawa is back on the disabled list with a forearm issue.

The Cubs claimed 25 year old right handed pitcher Alex Burnett from the Orioles. It is expected he will be put on the major league roster to place Fujikawa.

This waiver claim may make the least sense of all, if one looks at the body of work of Burnett. But it does signal that besides Dolis, the front office has no confidence or investment in any Triple A pitcher in Iowa.

Burnett career stats are bad:

In 176 major league games, he is 8-11, 4.73 ERA, and 1.458 WHIP. This year, he pitched in 2 games for the Orioles, going only 1 1/3 innings, giving up 4 hits, 3 runs, 2 walks and ending with a 20.25 ERA, and 4.50 WHIP.

Cubs manager Dale Sveum remembered Burnett after facing him when he was with the Twins.

"He has a pretty good arm, 93, 95 [mph], good run on his fastball," Sveum said. "He has the ability to throw a strike, breaking ball at any time. Not a lot of secondary stuff, but pretty decent velocity with pretty good movement on his fastball."

The Cubs' bullpen has already lost Shawn Camp, on the disabled list with a sprained right big toe, and now Fujikawa.

Burnett made a career-high 67 relief appearances for the Twins last season, going 4-4 with 10 holds and a 3.52 ERA. He led the club in relief innings, and his 2.49 ERA prior to the All-Star break ranked fourth among American League relievers.

This season, Burnett was 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in nine Minor League relief appearances between Triple-A Buffalo and Triple-A Norfolk.

Again, it appears that the Cubs are hoping that a change of scenery with somehow convert a pitcher on the downhill slide into a productive pitching asset.









































































































































































































May 24, 2013

PLAN B

A report indicates that the Astros are talking to "a hitter" as they prepare to select the first pick in the June baseball draft.  A hitter could mean San Diego 3B Kris Bryant, the best power hitter in the draft, or one of the two highly regarded high school outfielders. Depending on the time line of the Astros front office (now to be run by Nolan Ryan's son), a high impact long term position player makes sense.

If Bryant is selected by the Astros, it would mean that the top two pitchers in the draft are too expensive for the risk-reward analysis. This would mean Bryant would not be there for the Cubs,who select second.

Conventional wisdom is that the Cubs will have a choice of the two pitchers, Appel or Gray.

But for my money, the Cubs pressing need is to fill the organization hole at third base. If Bryant is gone, the second best college third baseman is North Carolina's Colin Moran. Moran, 21, is the 6'4" nephew of former major leaguer B.J. Surhoff. Moran was ACC player of the year. He does not have the power of Bryant, but he is scouted as a better defensive player. This season he hit .358, 13 homers, a .612 slugging percentage and 83 RBI.

Many draft boards have Bryant #5 and Moran #6 best overall players. The consensus is that Moran will be a top ten pick.

If Bryant is selected number one by Houston, my Plan B would have the Cubs select Moran.

May 23, 2013

MIND BOGGLING

Manager Dale Sveum called it "mild boggling" on why his team has such a close run differential but is 9 games under .500. He rambled off many of the reasons: untimely hitting, runners in scoring position, lack of power, defense.  But it is the offense that slumbers the most, including last night's awful 1-0 loss to Francisco Liriano and the Pirates.

The team's batting statistics tell the tale.

The only .300 hitters on the squad are two backups and Garza after one game.
There are only three starters hitting more than .280.
There are only two players who have driven in more than 20 runs.
There is only one player who has hit 10 home runs.
Excluding pitchers, there are five players batting under .230.

RKPlayerTeamPosGABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSAVGOBPSLGOPS
1 Garza, MCHCP120110020100.500.5001.0001.500
2 Sweeney, RCHCRF12213730112500.333.391.6191.010
3 Ransom, CCHC3B1646514403541900.304.360.587.947
4 DeJesus, DCHCCF431382441121516142130.297.366.507.873
5 Castillo, WCHCC3613016381001813610.292.328.392.721
6 Schierholtz, NCHCRF39124173514051961742.282.318.516.834
7 Castro, SCHCSS45192235110132173121.266.295.375.670
8 Soriano, ACHCLF42163184311041553851.264.294.405.699
9 Wood, TCHCP12194510131710.263.300.474.774
10 Rizzo, ACHC1B4517622461201030144243.261.326.500.826
11 Valbuena, LCHC3B3610692750514172311.255.360.443.803
12 Borbon, JCHCCF24313710005441.226.333.258.591
13 Gonzalez, ACHC2B11233510122600.217.269.391.661
14 Barney, DCHC2B3110613238126131120.217.314.368.682
15 Navarro, DCHCC2352410103731001.192.236.385.621
16 Sappelt, DCHCCF20453820013920.178.229.222.451
17 Villanueva, CCHCP9171300000900.176.176.176.353
18 Feldman, SCHCP8201320040600.150.150.250.400
19 Clevenger, SCHCC881100001300.125.222.125.347
20 Samardzija, JCHCP101732101211000.118.167.353.520
21 Hairston, SCHCRF29553620371910.109.136.309.445
22 Jackson, ECHCP9141110020500.071.071.143.214
23 Lillibridge, BCHC2B9240100020900.042.042.042.083

May 21, 2013

AAA ARM

It is kind of rare to pick up a AAA player off the waiver wire and assign him to your own AAA club. But the Cubs made such a move today, according to MLBTR.

The Cubs claimed often injuried reliever Eduardo Sanchez off waivers from the Cardinals. The Cards had to make room for another player on the major league roster.

The Cubs assigned Sanchez to Iowa. This may have been a need move because we note that starter Brooks Raley earned his first save last week in Iowa.

MLBTR reports that Sanchez, 24, has a career 3.40 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 5.8 BB/9 in 45 big league innings from  2011-12.  In 2011, he landed on the DL for a shoulder strain.  Since then, he has been up and down last season and has missed time this year with a forearm strain. He has only made nine appearances at Triple-A this year.   Baseball America scouting report stated, "durability remains his biggest concern, as his small frame leaves some scouts wondering how his stuff will hold up at the major league level."

PRIME BEEF

Wellington "Beef" Castillo gets a fair amount of criticism for his defense. He tends to overthrow towards second base on steals and has some trouble with balls in the dirt. However, he is a better defensive catcher than most people realize. Castillo ranks third in Defensive WAR. He has a Catcher ERA of 3.60 which ranks him 6th among all major league catchers. However, he is 21st in catcher fielding percentage at .980.

Sortable Fielding
RKPLAYERTEAMGPGSFULLTCPOAEDPFPCTRFPBCSBCSCS%CERADWAR
1Russell MartinPIT32 31 270 278 244 34 0 3 1.000 9.26 3 16 12 .429 3.56 1.0
2Yan GomesCLE17 14 131 119 108 11 0 0 1.000 8.18 1 4 7 .636 3.36 0.7
3Welington CastilloCHC34 32 290 252 221 26 5 0 .980 7.67 3 20 10 .333 3.60 0.6
4Jason CastroHOU34 32 283 216 204 10 2 1 .991 6.80 3 18 5 .217 5.03 0.6
5A.J. EllisLAD35 35 308 299 272 26 1 2 .997 8.71 4 13 13 .500 3.95 0.4
6Salvador PerezKC39 37 320 308 277 27 4 1 .987 8.56 0 15 7 .318 3.69 0.4
A.J. PierzynskiTEX24 24 212 212 196 16 0 1 1.000 8.99 0 10 2 .167 2.87 0.4
8Evan GattisATL22 21 190 163 150 12 1 0 .994 7.66 1 7 3 .300 3.02 0.4
9Tyler FlowersCHW35 34 304 303 280 21 2 2 .993 8.90 4 21 7 .250 3.40 0.4
Jonathan LucroyMIL33 31 277 250 238 11 1 0 .996 8.09 4 16 2 .111 4.59 0.4
RKPLAYERTEAMGPGSFULLTCPOAEDPFPCTRFPBCSBCSCS%CERADWAR
Chris StewartNYY24 21 187 192 177 14 1 1 .995 9.19 2 7 6 .462 4.29 0.4
12Joe MauerMIN27 27 241 183 170 11 2 2 .989 6.76 2 6 6 .500 4.03 0.3
13Ryan HaniganCIN20 19 171 181 167 13 1 1 .994 9.47 2 6 7 .538 2.68 0.3
David RossBOS15 15 126 150 144 6 0 1 1.000 10.69 1 10 4 .286 2.69 0.3
15Wilin RosarioCOL33 33 294 231 204 25 2 0 .991 7.00 5 9 8 .471 3.95 0.3
16John BakerSD13 11 97 81 74 7 0 2 1.000 7.52 0 8 4 .333 3.25 0.3
Brian McCannATL10 10 86 74 66 8 0 1 1.000 7.77 0 3 4 .571 3.67 0.3
18Derek NorrisOAK32 28 260 217 206 11 0 0 1.000 7.52 2 14 4 .222 3.88 0.3
19Francisco CervelliNYY17 16 138 131 121 6 4 1 .969 8.28 0 2 2 .500 3.13 0.2
20Yadier MolinaSTL43 42 376 364 340 22 2 3 .995 8.66 0 14 8 .364 3.22 0.2
RKPLAYERTEAMGPGSFULLTCPOAEDPFPCTRFPBCSBCSCS%CERADWAR
21Miguel MonteroARI39 39 359 321 302 19 0 1 1.000 8.04 1 11 2 .154 3.28 0.2
22Matt WietersBAL39 37 333 282 266 14 2 2 .993 7.57 2 8 9 .529 4.66 0.2
Carlos CorporanHOU14 13 114 94 88 5 1 1 .989 7.34 0 4 3 .429 6.93 0.2
24Hank CongerLAA13 11 99 98 91 4 3 0 .969 8.64 0 5 3 .375 4.00 0.2
25Miguel OlivoMIA17 15 129 115 100 12 3 1 .974 7.83 1 10 6 .375 3.78 0.2
26Kurt SuzukiWSH31 29 259 226 211 11 4 2 .982 7.71 0 25 2 .074 3.51 0.2
Yorvit TorrealbaCOL12 12 104 89 80 7 2 1 .978 7.53 0 10 3 .231 3.89 0.2
28Rob BrantlyMIA28 27 243 211 196 14 1 1 .995 7.77 3 10 7 .412 4.37 0.2
29Alex AvilaDET31 31 273 292 278 13 1 1 .997 9.61 4 21 7 .250 4.03 0.2
Humberto QuinteroPHI7 7 57 48 44 3 1 1 .979 7.42 0 3 0 .000 3.32 0.2
RKPLAYERTEAMGPGSFULLTCPOAEDPFPCTRFPBCSBCSCS%CERADWAR
31Corky MillerCIN6 6 50 59 55 3 1 0 .983 10.44 0 5 1 .167 3.24 0.1
Jeff MathisMIA3 3 28 28 24 4 0 1 1.000 9.00 0 1 3 .750 2.25 0.1
Chris SnyderBAL3 3 27 21 19 2 0 1 1.000 7.00 1 1 2 .667 2.33 0.1
34Ramon HernandezLAD5 5 44 54 52 2 0 0 1.000 11.05 1 1 2 .667 3.89 0.1
35J.P. ArencibiaTOR37 34 310 255 243 11 1 0 .996 7.38 6 18 5 .217 4.63 0.1
Wilson RamosWSH14 14 119 109 100 6 3 1 .972 8.02 1 5 2 .286 3.25 0.1
37Hector GimenezCHW9 9 77 63 57 6 0 0 1.000 7.33 4 4 3 .429 5.16 0.1
38Buster PoseySF37 35 311 308 288 19 1 0 .997 8.89 2 23 7 .233 4.09 0.1
39Geovany SotoTEX18 18 159 155 145 8 2 1 .987 8.66 0 7 3 .300 4.65 0.1
40Taylor TeagardenBAL4 4 34 30 27 2 1 0 .967 7.68 0 1 1 .500 3.44 0.0

SALE ITEMS

With declining attendance and increasing no-shows, the Cubs will have to financially write off this season. It will be the second non-competitive campaign in a row. But in the corporate speak that is the New Cubs Way, the silver lining in this dark cloud is salable assets.

The Cubs plan to again trade as many veterans to get more youthful depth in their minor league system. This is a small market approach but with one catch: small market teams like Oakland have a track record of actually developing prospects into real major league players. The Cubs have yet to mine consistent gold in their system.

The Cubs have only a handful of "untradeable" players: Soriano (contract and veto rights); Rizzo and Castro (long term commitments); E. Jackson (big contract) and T. Wood & Russell (young potential building blocks).

The rest of the roster should have sale tags sewed on the front of their uniforms.

For a contending team hoping to bolster their late season push, many general managers are now looking toward relief pitching as a key area to upgrade in the stretch. Besides Russell, the entire Cubs bullpen is open for bids.

Closer Gregg may get a look if their are injuries to other teams closers. Fujikawa and Marmol are set up guys who may not have any value. Villaneuva may have promise both as a spot starter and long reliever which has good value to the right team.

Of the position players, not many fit into good roles on good teams.
A case could be made for Navarro if a team is looking for a switch hitting pinch hitter specialist. Navarro is 5-for-11 with 2 HRs as a pinch hitter.

A team desperate for defensive upgrade in the field may want to take a low flyer on Barney, or DeJesus.

Teams will always be looking for starting pitchers when their rotations wear down. In the off season the Cubs pushed to build a staff of starters that they could flip in July: Baker, Feldman, Garza and Villaneuva. Baker is still hurt and not coming back to contribute in any meaningful fashion before the deadline. Garza returns tonight from rehab, but his trade value is very low unless he is lights out in his next five starts. Of the Cubs starters, Feldman and T. Wood have the most trade value.

But do you trade young players like Feldman and T. Wood for potential prospects that may be years away from the big leagues?

The fans may already be tired of this sign-and-trade merry-go-round.

May 20, 2013

DOWN ON THE FARM

Previously, we posted the Iowa Cubs team pitching stats for this season.  There was very little upside.

Ian Stewart is still on the roster, but is now really the third third baseman on the squad, after Vitters and Lillebridge.  Besides rehab starts, the only .300 hitter promoted so far has been Ryan Sweeney.

Now, after 40 minor league games, here is the Iowa Cubs cumulative batting stats:

Player POS G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG OPS E 
Darwin Barney2B31045100063310.615.600.5001.2150
Brian BogusevicLF39130234712221569222791.454.531.362.9851
Ryan SweeneyRF23831228226165281510.396.627.3371.0220
J.C. BoscanC2483927500103281410.380.386.325.7661
Alberto Gonzalez2B10334101003115400.395.333.303.7280
Brad Nelson1B3411919348073163102300.338.529.286.8684
Donnie Murphy3B2467519302928102330.375.418.284.7933
Josh Vitters3B14508142027224810.333.440.280.7732
Brent Lillibridge2B2377102130243041811.317.390.273.7074
Brett JacksonCF2910512275221242103142.333.400.257.7330
Edwin MaysonetSS2568517311122571411.321.368.250.6881
Dave SappeltCF1140691117152601.256.375.225.6311
Logan Watkins2B391392031743855293847.365.396.223.7604
Darnell McDonaldLF3090101930282891940.290.311.211.6011
Ty WrightLF13422820031011200.227.238.190.4650
Luis FloresC175931010241731200.222.288.169.5101
Ian Stewart3B205888310613112100.292.224.138.5164
Tim Torres2B102142100132730.174.143.095.3170