It is nice to hear that the Cubs front office has a needs assessment chart for all the other 29 teams in MLB. The charts are supposed to help pinpoint potential trade partners who are looking to fill holes in their roster. Apparently, GM Jed Hoyer finds that everyone is still looking for pitching which is now in short supply.
But what is the Cubs needs assessment?
If the season starts today, the Cubs depth chart looks extremely weak:
OF: Soriano, DeJesus, LaHair
IN: Valbuena, Castro, Barney, Rizzo
C: W. Castillo
SP: Samardzija, Rusin, T. Wood
Bullpen: Marmol, Russell, L. Castillo, Bowden, Cabrera, Chapman, Dolis.
Bench: B. Jackson, Campana, Sappelt, Clevenger
That is only 22 players on the current depth chart.
And of those 22 players, at least 9 will not make the April, 2013 roster.
A reality check shows the Cubs depth chart as follows:
OF: Soriano, DeJesus, LaHair
IN: Valbuena, Castro, Barney, Rizzo
C: W. Castillo
SP: Samardzija, T. Wood, Garza (DL)
Bullpen: Marmol, Russell,
Bench:
The Cubs have already signaled that B. Jackson will go back to AAA. Campana or Sappelt are not great outfield defenders or great bench hitters. They are limited speed guys. LaHair is the marginal right fielder by default; again, waiting to be benched until Soler is promoted (which may not happen in 2013). If W. Castillo is the new Cub catcher, Clevenger will probably not be back. He sort of wore out his welcome when his bat cooled and took pride at throwing at an opponent late in the season.
Rusin, L. Castillo, Bowden, Cabrera, Chapman and Dolis are all destined for minor league seasoning; slow cooking style.
And Valbuena as your every day third baseman is a tenuous solution.
In reality, every single position on the current Cubs roster is in need of an upgrade.
So to prioritize the NEEDS of the 2013 Cubs:
1. STARTING THIRD BASEMAN
2. STARTING RIGHT FIELDER
3. STARTING PITCHER (#3)
4. STARTING PITCHER (#5)
5. BACK UP CATCHER
6. SPOT STARTER (#6)
7. RESERVE INFIELDER
8. MIDDLE RELIEVER (7th inning)
9. RESERVE OUTFIELDER
10. SPOT STARTER (#7)
Filling those needs is another question. Even finding a third baseman, like Ian Stewart last year, is fraught with peril. There is little doubt that these needs are not going to be filled within the Cubs organization. The free agent market is thin this off season. Teams will overpay for the top tier one or two players at each position. But the Cubs mindset is not going the top free agent route: they want to cherry pick the second tier to find a gold nugget in the drudge of lower team cast-offs. The Cubs picked up Maholm from the obscurity of the Pirates cave, only to flip him for an injured young starter. But people now know the Cubs free agent rental plan. Some free agents may shy away from signing with the Cubs because they don't want to be uprooted after only three months in Chicago. Some teams will no longer give up prized pitching prospects for a rent-a-player on a trade deadline deal.
The idea that the Cubs blueprint for future success is solely based upon "rebuilding" the minor league system, then relying on home grown talent to win, is a fallacy. It is an excuse of a big market club NOT to spend money to field a competitive team. You can build a winner with a combination of free agent signing and good amateur drafts. The Cubs mantra on the latter is a means of saving cash and buying time.
The Cubs could go out and spend like a mad sailor for Youkilis, Josh Hamilton, Pierzynski and Greinke to fill/upgrade four positions. But would that make the Cubs even a .500 club? Probably not. Waiting three or four years for Almora, Soler, Concepcion and Vizcaino to hit their stride will make the Cubs a .500 club? Probably not, as the vast majority of prospects do not pan out.
The needs of the Cubs are not the same needs of the fans, who want a competitive team now.
