May 28, 2015

HR DISTRIBUTION

There was some question on whether the new electronic scoreboards at Wrigley would affect home runs because of new wind patterns.

There is not enough evidence to make any final conclusions, but the current home run distribution chart has some circumstantial evidence.

ESPN's home run tracker puts a dot for every home run hit in every ball park. In the first 24 games at Wrigley, 42 home runs have been hit. That is an average of 1.74 HR/game. The National League average is 1.82 HR/G. The American League average is 1,95 HR/G.

Milwaukee leads the majors with 73 home runs (2.81 HR/G) followed by Cincinnati (2.71 HR/G), the Dodgers (2.36 HR/G) and San Diego (2.30 HR/G).

At Wrigley, the home run distribution was:

23 to LF (54.7%)
6 to CF (14.3 %)
13 to RF (31.0%)

The number of "front row" home runs were:

14 in LF (61% of total)
2 in CF (33% of total)
4 in RF (31% of total)

The question is whether the large LF video board is creating a down force in the left field bleachers that is creating a larger percentage of home run balls landing in the first rows.