The Cubs think their team is the best entertainment product in Chicago
so Comcast HAS TO carry its network.
Today's story from Yahoo Sports:
“I’m starting to lose you. Hello?”
That was Marquee Sports Network general manager Mike
McCarthy when asked for an update on the carriage talks between his
network and Comcast, which has yet to pick up the channel. It wasn’t the
first time he played the joke, either.
“Good memory,” he said. “I’ll have to come up with another one.”
McCarthy, who previously was president of MSG Network in
New York, knows all about carriage talks. But he wouldn’t reveal much
regarding the ones that affect lots of Cubs fans, except to say he’s
confident a deal will get done.
“I can’t speak for Comcast, but I wouldn’t want to be in
the TV distribution business in Chicago with the Cubs coming back and
not having that content,” he said. “It wouldn’t be a fun place to be, I
would think.
“We have a confidence that we’re steadfast in. There’s a
little time left [before Opening Day]. It’s closing in on us; we’re very
aware of that. We remain confident that a deal will be made.”
The sides were very close to an agreement in March when
baseball shut down because of the coronavirus pandemic. Comcast provides
service to more than half of the homes in the market.
>>>> Of course he cannot speak for Comcast because Comcast holds all the leverage and understands it does not need the Cubs to succeed.
It already has a baseball team - - - its partner in CSNBC. And the White Sox have the buzz the Cubs had in 2015 but with a younger team.
The math does not make sense for Comcast. It's extended basic package in Chicago already costs $95/month. Cord cutting is still happening because of the cost. The Cubs wanted $6/month per subscriber - - - that puts the costs over a hundred dollars a month for most people who will not even watch the games.
In 2019, Cubs local ratings dropped from 4.8 to 4.1 (135,000 viewers).
If a cable operator has 1.6 million subscribers, but only 135,000 watch Cubs games, it means 92 percent of its customers DO NOT want to pay for the Cubs games.
By this metric, Comcast could only justify the expense if 135,000 x $4/viewer/month (last alleged Cubs offer) or $540,000/month (or a 34 cent increase in all customer bills).
By the Cubs financial desire and valuation, it wants $4/viewer/month on 1.6 million subscribers or $6.4 million/month. (Which equate to $76.8 million, which is less than reported TV revenue in 2019 by about 22%).
Comcast is in no rush to EAT $6 million/month for Cubs broadcasts when it has the White Sox on its own regional sports network. Why bail out a competitor?
And why should Comcast pay for Marquee when the 2020 season is still in doubt? By signing a carriage deal now, Comcast would have to pay Marquee whether Cubs games are shown or not. A network that has not gotten good reviews from those few people who actually can see it.
The Cubs ownership position was flawed from the beginning. It took too long to get its network in place under the broken and outdated Dodgers model. Ownership got greedy because of the built up debt and realities of overbuilding around Wrigley. Management arrogantly assumed that it could get a better deal than its past cable partnership. By all metrics, they are wrong.
