New Cubs management sort of let their strategy out of the bag. Epstein and Hoyer have identified a list of players who they believe will have "bounce back seasons" to target for acquisition. The latest comeback player candidate is lefty starter, Paul Maholm, who signed a $4.25 million contract with a $500k buyout with a club option in 2013. Maholm's season ended early with a shoulder strain issue. This move is similar to the Jim Hendry pick up Tom Gorzelanny from the Pirates a few years earlier. Pirate left hand starters seem to pitch quite well at Wrigley the last few years, and Maholm fits the bill as a ground ball out pitcher in a HR alley friendly ball yard.
Maholm, 29, went 6-14, 3.66 ERA, 1.294 WHIP in 26 games for the improved Pirates in 2011. Gorzelanny came to the Cubs after a weak 2008 season of 6-9, 6.66 ERA, 1.804 WHIP in 21 games. The Cubs picked him up and made him a swing starter/long reliever and in 2009 he had a 4-2 record, 5.63 ERA, 1.357 WHIP in 13 games. There was some improvement, but not substantial.
In the financial world, after a stock quickly falls in price, there are times buyers pick it up cheaply and the stock begins to rise from the bottom of the chart. But usually, it is a short term "dead cat bounce" before the stock falls back to the bottom. Epstein and Hoyer have a lot of bouncing fur so far this off-season, including pitchers Volstad, Sonnastine, and Weathers.
The signing of Maholm also puts into play the strong probability that Matt Garza will be traded soon. David Kaplan of WGN Chicago stated that the Cubs and Tigers are in advanced talks on a Garza deal. The Cubs apparently want two Tiger top prospects, 19 year old third baseman Nick Castellanos, who hit .313, 7 HR 76 RBI in A ball, but is a defensive project, and 20 year old starter Jacob Turner, who bolted up from AA to 3 appearances in the majors late last season. Turner is the Tigers #1 system prospect. In AA-AAA last season, Turner was 4-5, 3.44 ERA, 1.160 WHIP, 110 K/35 BB which is quite good. Both of these Tiger prospects are years away from major league duty.
If Maholm is the replacement for Garza in the rotation, it is another downgrade by the new administration for the sake of roster turnover and acquisition of low prospects to re-fill the minor league ranks. The Cubs have the 6th and 41st picks in this year's draft which could lead to 2 impact players in 2014. It would also be another move to pare back payroll, as Garza is expected to make $9 million in arbitration for 2012, or about double what Maholm will make. Do not discount the fact that the Cubs have no real money to spend on free agents or veterans without dumping a corresponding amount in existing payroll. So the plan is to throw on a quick patch of new stucco on the major league roster to get some fan interest, but really pray for the new minor league system to produce a dozen quality players by 2014.
