April 14, 2012

RUNS ALLOWED AVERAGE

One of the most misstated baseball stats for performance is Earned Run Average (ERA).  ERA only counts "earned runs," being runs scored by the work of the opponent. But all runs are scored against a pitcher by some work of the batter.  The scorer's generosity to not charge a pitcher with an earned run if that runner got on base by an error is inconsistent when that error was actually caused by the pitcher himself.

In addition, a starting pitcher could load up the bases. He gets pulled from the game. Even though he is no longer in the game, he is responsible for all three base runners. The relief pitcher, whose job it is to get the team out of jams, is not responsible for "inherited runners."  Well, if a person inherits a house with a mortgage, that person still needs to pay the mortgage. So an ineffective relief pitcher can allow all three inherited runners to score, and not have one "earned run" put on his ERA.  In fact, those inherited runners are ghosts; they don't exist on the reliever's record at all: they apply only to the guy in the dugout. In this common situation, the starting pitcher's performance stats are lessened through the bad pitching of a reliever.

Also, the concept of an "unearned" run also lessens the true performance of a pitcher. A pitcher is the most important player in the field. He controls the ebb and flow of the game by his pitch selections and control. And part of the pitcher's command is getting batters out with three strikes.  So when a pitcher allows a ball to be hit into play, he is responsible for that contact. Just because a fielder commits an error should not lessen the fact that the pitcher could not strike out the batter. It is a team performance issue when the batter reaches first on an error. And after that error is recorded, all further runs scored usually don't count against a pitcher's ERA.

The ERA formula is a well established tradition in baseball. It is just not the best gauge of pitching performance. Pitching is one thing: not allowing your opponent to score runs. Since it is a team game, the team on defense sole purpose is to get outs.

A better method of true performance (what the players are actually paid to do: get outs) is Runs Allowed Average. The problem with this stat is that the official scorers do not break split inherited runs scored from the earned run responsibility.

For example, a box score could look like this:

PITCHER           IP          R      ER                ERA
Starter                5.0          3        3                  5.40
Reliever             1.0          0        0                  0.00

You would think the starter had a bad day, and the reliever did his job well.

But, what about a fuller box score:


PITCHER           IP          R      ER                ERA       H     BB  SO
Starter                5.0          3        3                  5.40        0        3      4
Reliever             1.0          0        0                  0.00        3        1      3

What do you call the starter's performance now? Bad luck?
The starter had a no hitter through 5 innings.  He gets into trouble in the 6th and walks three batters.
A reliever is called in and gives up a walk and 3 hits.  All three "inherited runners" score. Then the reliever calms down and strikes out the side.
In reality, the reliever was the one who was "on the mound" when the runs scored. He should be responsible for them.

In the insurance world, it does not matter whether you caused or did not cause an accident in your motor vehicle. A "claim" is a claim. It should be similar in baseball pitching stats: it should not matter whether you inherited runners, you should stop them from advancing and scoring.

So, a modified box score would look like this to show Runs Allowed Average (RA/IPx9):

PITCHER           IP          R      ER                ERA       H     BB  SO   RA  RAA
Starter                5.0          3        3                  5.40        0        3      4     0       0.00
Reliever             1.0          0        0                  0.00        3        1      3     3     27.00

Since baseball reference books do not break down individual runs scored to pitchers on the mound per se, the only quick comparison point would be in the team runs allowed to IP.

In 2011, the Cubs allowed 756 runs to score in 1434.33 IP. 
In 2012, the Cubs have allowed 33 runs to score in 72 IP.
The Cubs 2011 RAA was 4.74  The team ERA was 14th in the league at 4.33.
The Cubs 2012 RAA is 4.125. The team ERA is 11th in the league at 3.88.

RAA is a much better gauge of pitching performance, especially for relief pitchers who are not penalized for inherited runners scoring on their watch.