June 29, 2012

THE NEXT STEP

‘‘It’s really about collecting a lot of players like this and putting them on the field together,’’ Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer said with the arrival of Anthony Rizzo. ‘‘Not just one, but along with [shortstop Starlin] Castro and hopefully a lot of other guys that we can get on the field at the same time and really create a really great, young organization.’’


So Cub management infers that only two real pieces of their blueprint are in place: Castro at short and Rizzo at first.  Everyone else is up for position filling, trade bait or the dreaded "designated for assignment."


It appears to be a long re-building process. The Cubs web site shows the team's Top 10 prospects (Rizzo was #1 before call up):


1. Brett Jackson, of, AAA .253 BA, 11 HR, 31 RBI, 32 BB 113K 14 SB .332 OBP
High hopes that Jackson would be called up this year and patrol center field. He was touted as a five tool player, with speed and power. However, his massive strike out total this season is quite disturbing. At present, there is no need to call him up this season.


2. Javier Baez, ss, A .284 BA. 1 HR, 11 RBI, 7BB, 22K, 11 SB, .381 OBP
Baez has moving up in fan consciousness as a top prospect. But he is still young and at A ball. It will take at least three more years of development time, and a possible change of position by Baez or Castro to open a roster spot.


3. Matt Szczur, of, A .290, 2HR, 20 RBI, 31 BB, 34 K, 26 SB, .389 OBP
He was another of past GM Hendry's overpay to sign college football players. At high A ball, he seems to be putting up numbers that would show lead-off potential. But like Baez, he is at least three seasons in development.


4. Dillon Maples, rhp
In April, went to extended spring training. No reports on development.


5. Trey McNutt, rhp, AA 4-7, 4.68 ERA 10 HR, 26 BB, 34 K, 1.53 WHIP
His progression up the system has been stymied this season. 


6. Robert Whitenack, rhp, A 0-2 4.68 ERA 2 HR 5 BB 11 K 1.59 WHIP
He has been moving up the prospect board, but may be by default as more touted prospects like Hayden Simpson have fallen off the map. Like McNutt, his performance has not been up to par this year.


7. Reggie Golden, of, A disabled list
He was another fast and slick outfield candidate who has been stuck in the mud.


8. Junior Lake, ss, AA .303 BA, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 14 BB, 41K, 8 SB, .356 OBP
Scouts believe Lake is the real deal. He has a big body and projects now to be a third baseman in the future. He has power, but with it a high strike out ratio. Maybe two years away from big league debut.


9. Josh Vitters, 3b, AAA .289 BA, 12 HR 40 RBI, 17 BB, 45 K, 1 SB, .340 OBP
The top prospect for many years, Vitters is finally gaining his offensive stroke in Iowa. Scouts still believe he is a below average defender at the hot corner. However, the Cubs are devoid of third base talent in the minor league system, and the "bust" label on Ian Stewart this season means that Vitters will probably get a call up late in the season.


10. Ronald Torreyes, 2b, A 232 BA 3 HR, 19 RBI, 17 BB, 17 K,  6 SB .289 OBP
He came in the Marshall trade as a exciting middle infield prospect. However, his offense has stagnated this season in A ball. He could have been on a fast track to AA this year, and Iowa in the next, but it appears his development has slowed. Like third base, the system does not contain high second base prospects.


So when Hoyer says he needs to put in more pieces around Rizzo and Castro, it is a signal that next spring at least 2 more rookies need to earn starting jobs, and at least 2 more prospects be promoted in 2013 to start the major league roster turnover in earnest. Without such turnover, the Cubs time table to compete moves from 2015 to 2017, which unacceptable to ownership and the fans.


The best chance of players being called up this season, and compete for a 2013 starting position are Jackson and Vitters. Management wants their position players to play 162 games at AAA, so Lake would appear to be a late 2013 call up at best. The pitching prospects already in the system seem to be a long way off from developing the necessary control to be pieces for even a revamped bullpen.


The next step appears to trade veterans for more major league ready quality prospect this July.