July 2, 2012

NEW TRADE ERA

The unintended consequences of the new collective bargaining agreement are becoming apparent. More teams are spending mad money on international free agents before the July salary cap deadline of $2.9 million.  The Cubs signed Soler to a 9 year, $30 million contract to beat the signing restrictions.


In addition, teams that used to trade for pending free agents ("rent a player") did so a) for a pennant push and b) they could receive supplemental draft picks if the rented player went into free agency.


According to FoxSports, the trade game has changed:




If a player has six or more years of major-league service and has no contract for the upcoming season, then he's a free agent. In baseball, being a free agent means you're free to sell your services to any team you wish.
But that's not all there is to the process. Teams losing a highly regarded free agent can be compensated in the form of draft picks. That will happen less often under the new collective bargaining agreement, which went into effect with the 2012 season.
Before, players were classified as Type A or Type B free agents based on statistical comparisons to other players at the same position. The level of draft pick compensation — first round, second round, etc. — hinged on their Type A or Type B status. Now, the system is simpler. For one thing, only players who spend the entire season with one team will have compensation attached to them.
All eligible players will become free agents after the World Series is over. A quiet period of five days will follow, during which only the player’s most recent team will be able to negotiate with him.
By the end of the quiet period, the team must decide whether it will tender the player a “qualifying offer” — a guaranteed one-year contract equal to the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players from the previous season. For the 2012-2013 offseason, the figure will be between $12 million and $13 million — a high enough number that a relatively small group of players will receive the offer. (Almost no relief pitchers will earn that much, meaning more free-agent-eligible relievers will be traded in-season under this CBA.)
If a player is tendered the qualifying offer, he will have seven days to decline or accept. If he declines, his soon-to-be former club will receive two draft picks if and when he signs elsewhere. Let’s say Team A loses a free agent to Team B. Team A will receive Team B’s first-round selection the following year (unless it is one of the top 10 picks, in which case Team B’s next pick is substituted), along with a pick in the sandwich round, between the first and second.
There is LESS incentive for a contending team to pick up a rent-a-player. Since a rental player is not on your squad for the ENTIRE season, NO compensation is allowed when he bolts to free agency. So general managers have to weigh in that factor of whether the trade is really an attempt to sign the player to a contract extension.  The new system also hinders bottom dwelling clubs from trading their pending free agents for prospects because trade partners will not part with top prospects if the rent-a-player is not going to re-sign a contract extension. You will probably see smaller deals being done like the Yankees weekend acquisition of relief pitcher Chad Qualls from the Phillies for "a player to be named later or cash."  Usually, those players to be named are low level minor leaguers or a cash sum of $25,000 to $100,000.
Then you have some veteran players with no trade clauses, 10 and 5 rights, or limited trade approval contract deals that can veto trades. Houston's Carlos Lee vetoed a trade to the Dodgers. Apparently, he preferred the battle for last place over a pennant chase. But many veteran players would rather stay in the town that they currently play for family or business reasons than relocate across the country and play for a new team. Old habits are hard to change. Lee still may get traded, but he may not be a content player.
The current prediction is that general managers have to be more careful than ever in trying to make deals this season. It may make more sense to hold on to your own pending free agents in the hopes of getting high draft compensation picks (which probably are more valuable in the rebuilding program than minor level trade prospects).