July 23, 2012

THE RISK OF HOLDING ON

SPECULATION was that both Dempster and Garza would have been traded last week. But Epstein could not pull the trigger on any deals, even though interest was high on both players.

There may be many factors on why the Cubs are lingering on doing deals.

1. The Cubs may overvalue Dempster and Garza in the market. Teams won't give top ten prospects for a rental player. Teams may only give one high and two low level prospects for Garza.

2. The Cubs are waiting for a team on the fence to get desperate and "over pay" for a Cub player.

3. The Cubs have so many offers that they are in information paralysis mode.

4. Dempster won't waive his no trade.

5. Ownership may be pushing to keep the players in order to sell tickets in August and September.

The problem with waiting to the end is that there may be no buyers at the end.

Dempster had his scoreless streak snapped, so his value went down. Garza has a forearm, well maybe, a triceps injury. So no team is going to trade for a starter with an existing injury. Garza may have no value this week.

Family issues may come into play, too. School is starting soon. Garza is about to become a father. The players don't want to upset family routines.

So it is possible that both Dempster and Garza remain on the Cubs this year. And if so, in order to get a compensation pick for FA Dempster, the Cubs would have to offer him a $12 million offer. And guess what? Dempster could screw up the rebuilding blue print by taking the offer and staying a Cub. Likewise, Garza will make about $12 million in arbitration. So instead of $30 million coming off the books, only $6 million will.