August 14, 2013

ALL EGGS IN ONE BASKET

The Cubs made their last international signing official.

Steve Adams of MLBTR reports that the Cubs have signed 18-year-old Taiwanese right-hander Jen-Ho Tseng for a $1.625MM bonus. Tseng as the No. 29 prospect in this year's international class,. Tseng's fastball touches 95 mph and sits comfortably in the low 90s, and can add a curveball and slider.

Adams calculates that the Cubs have significantly blown through their CBA allowance for international spending of  $5.52 million. The Cubs can only spend 150% of that pool allowance. With this signing, the Cubs have spent $7.895 million, more than $1 million over the maximum level.

That means the Cubs will face the maximum penalties for overspending this year: a 100% tax on the overage plus severe bonus restrictions for the next two years (bonus limit of $250,000).

The front office will spend more than $9 million on international talent and more than $11.5 million on June draft selections or a total prospect spending of $20.5 million. This follows the Boston Epstein pattern of throwing a ton of money at a problem in hopes of a solution.

Just because one overspends on talent does not mean that talent will mature into impact major league players. Of the dozen bonus babies signed this year, maybe only one or two will actually make it.

This grand spending spree this year foreshadows major cut-backs in spending in the next few years. The Ricketts family will have to reign in team spending in order to pay for the massive real estate redevelopment costs of Wrigley Field and the surrounding properties. Club payroll will continue to fall next year.  Epstein has spent all his money on low minor prospects to buy at least four years of development time while the Ricketts are pre-occupied by their building projects.

Epstein's gamble this year was to place his budget on the black at the talent roulette wheel.