August 1, 2013

HOLD EM

The way many teams look at the non-waiver trading deadline is like playing hands of Texas Hold Em.

One's chips are players and prospects. High demand players have more value than journeymen or low level minor leaguers.

The question is when do you push your chips into the market in order to elicit a "call" from another general manager.

The most valuable assets are quality starting pitchers who have a year left on their current deal. A contending team may go "all in" and trade for this type of player, knowing that if the team does not go to the playoffs, it can trade the veteran pitcher in the off season. So this type of player is more valuable than a pure "rental" player who is a free agent after the season.

The next most valuable asset are quality bats. In case of injury or suspension to a contending team, losing a bat in the middle of the lineup could implode an entire season. Most teams will not give up bats unless that team is looking for salary relief on a long term contract. 

A general manager must look at his chips and wonder whether it is better to hold on to a quality starter or a value bat under control for next season, or try to extract three or four prospects who may be good in a few years. It depends on whether the team has its own prospects in their system who are nearly "major league ready." Removing a veteran block on your current roster is one way for a team to improve at low cost.

But there are some general managers who like the "action" of trading even minor level players for other minor level players. In some minds, mixing up the entire system keeps everyone in the organization on their toes - - - and their minds in the game. These types of general managers do not fall in love with their draft choices, or bend over backwards to make sure their signees succeed in the future. GMs can blindside themselves with their own scouting reports if they over estimate the talent level of a player.

And then there are some teams who will not trade for any prospect over the age of 22. There is a perception that once a player gets to 23 or 24, he is either a major league talent or he is a bust. For a high school signee, that would mean he would have been under development for more than five years. If one holds on to a prospect too long that player no longer becomes a prospect for another team.

The next stage in the season is the waiver trade wire. Most teams will send most of the their roster through "revocable waivers" to judge interest in teams who need to pick up a player for the final playoff run. Some teams will throw out high priced contract players like the Blue Jays did with Alex Rios hoping that a team will put in a claim and take the player lock stock and barrel without compensation (like the White Sox did.) Once a team claims a player, the league determines the lowest ranked club has a chance to take the player if not recalled by the original team. If no team claims a player, then that player is free to be moved to any club in a trade since he had "cleared waivers." The only players who will probably move this way are high salaried veterans since no team wants to claim outright the dead money owed at the end of the deal.

Now players taken after August 1, 2013 will not be eligible for the post season roster. These players are really used to shore up positions to get to the playoffs, or fill a gap for a recent injury. So contending teams must have a list or two of potential target players during the waiver wire trade season.

Now some teams may "bluff" or block players from moving to another team by claiming the player on the waiver wire (if they are lower in the standings than the club seeking help). There is a risk of the waiver team letting the claimed player go, but most likely that will not be the case. Some may call this technique dirty pool, but it is within the rules. Any advantage competing clubs have against each other is fair game in a pennant chase.