September 14, 2013

STARTING NEXT SEASON

The Cubs will have three known starting pitchers next year: Jeff Samardzija, Travis Wood and Edwin Jackson.

But if the front office continues its business model, it will look to sign one or two low-cost (and/or rehabbing) starting pitchers in order to trade them at next July's non-waiver deadline.

The list of potential free agent pitchers from MLBTR:
  1. Matt Garza - He will be looking for a large long term deal, something the Cubs will not entertain.
  2. Masahiro Tanaka - Tanaka, at age 25, is the top Japanese pitcher to be posted this off season. It is doubtful the Cubs will be in a financial position to go after a top foreign free agent.
  3. Ervin Santana - If he receives a qualifying offer, and turns it down, the Cubs will not sign him and lose a first round or high draft pick.
  4. Hiroki Kuroda - At age 39, there is not much left in the tank, but a contender looking for a veteran 5th starter would probably pick him up.
  5. A.J. Burnett - Burnett said he is happy Pittsburgh, a team that is improving, so odds are that he will re-sign with the Pirates.
  6. Tim Lincecum - Lincecum probably won't get a qualifying offer because he is broken pitcher this year (his mechanics failed him). This is the type of player the Cubs could go after to get him back to par and increase his trade value.
  7. Ricky Nolasco - The Dodgers will most likely re-sign him.
  8. Bronson Arroyo -At 37 next year, Arroyo, a past Cub killer, won't be on Chicago's radar because he wants a multiyear deal.
  9. Dan Haren - Haren was on the Cubs radar before this season, but we are glad the Cubs did not pull that deal. Haren has had another bad year as an oft-injured starter. He has no trade value in 2014.
  10. Scott Feldman - Feldman, 31,  is in line for a multiyear deal after having continued success in Baltimore after the Cub trade.   He is in his prime years so he is out of the Cubs budget.
  11. Paul Maholm - Maholm  missed a month with a wrist contusion so he is one of those injrued pitchers that some teams may overlook and the Cubs could try to sign to one-year deal. But he is a lefty starter with experience, so I expect many suitors for his services.
  12. Roberto Hernandez - Hernandez has not been a quality starter since 2010, which is another bad habit the Cubs front office has gotten into: thinking players can rebound to levels 3-4 seasons ago. The Cubs may look at him as a sign and deal type of project.
  13. Scott Kazmir - Kazmir has talent but has been so injury inconsistent that it is hard to classify him either as foundation piece or minor league project.
  14. Ubaldo Jimenez - He has inconsistent power and can be head case at times, but  he will be able to command a multiyear deal in the open market.
  15. Bartolo Colon - At 41, Colon may be too old for a rebuilding team to consider making an offer. He has been past suspended for PED use which may make some teams weary.
  16. Josh Johnson - Johnson's season ended with a strained forearm that will not require surgery, but unlike years past, Johnson did not pitch well while on the field this year, with a 6.20 ERA in 16 starts. Johnson could fit the type of player that the Cubs could convince that with a one year deal and a guaranteed starting spot, he could improve his market value for 2015.
  17. Phil Hughes - Hughes, 28, is the former Yankee phenom, who has been so below expectations that  he is now labeled as one-year deal reclamation project target, which fits right into the Cubs sign and trade wheelhouse.
  18. Jason Vargas - Vargas also fits right into the Cubs sign and trade wheelhouse, but he has more upside than Hughes.
  19. Chris Capuano-  Capuano also fits right into the Cubs sign and trade wheelhouse and may be more accessible since he got shuffled in and out of the crowded Dodger starting staff so he may be looking for a clean start to rehab his own value.
  20. Roy Halladay - The former ace had labrum and rotator cuff surgery in May, returning to make a few starts this month. It is doubtful the Cubs will take a chance (at the expected high cost) for Halladay.
  21. Tim Hudson - Hudson was pitching well before his season ended in July with an ankle fracture. He will command a multiyear deal.
  22. Jason Hammel-
  23. Wandy Rodriguez-Rodriguez is an under-rated left hander who has put up consistent numbers with bad teams. I expect him to get a higher than expected multi-year deal.
  24. Andy Pettitte-He is too old for the Cubs sign and trade wheelhouse.
  25. Joe Saunders-He is another lefty that does not fit into the Cubs sign and trade wheelhouse.
  26. Jake Westbrook- Westbrook, at this point of his career, will want to be on a contender and not on rebuilding team.
  27. Ryan Vogelsong (club option) He will probably re-sign with the Giants.
  28. Edinson Volquez-He does not fit into the Cubs sign and trade model since there will be several teams looking at him as a mid-level starter.
  29. Chad Gaudin - Gaudin has been quietly solid in a dozen starts for the Giants, with a 3.53 ERA. He is a swing type pitcher that the Cubs have not been able to flip for top prospects in the past.
  30. Mike Pelfrey-There is little buzz for the former Met. He has had a bad year as a Twin with a 5.30 ERA.  He may be a last resort option
  31. Shaun Marcum-He has had recent injury history and has fallen off the radar. Again, he may be a last resort candidate for the Cubs.
  32. Scott Baker-If Baker does well in his next few starts, he will leave the Cubs richer and short resume to get himself a raise in 2014.
  33. Colby Lewis- He seems out of the price range for the Cubs.
  34. Randy Messenger - The 32-year-old is a sleeper MLB deal candidate this offseason, with a 2.83 ERA as a starter for the Hanshin Tigers from 2011-13. Another second chance type of signee that the Cubs could look at as a last resort.
The viable candidates for the Cubs free agent pitching acquisitions this off-season are quite thin.