September 7, 2013

NO QUICK FIX

The Chicago Sun Times had a long interview with Cubs owner Tom Ricketts. In summation, Ricketts admits that there is no "quick fix" for the Cubs on-field losing. In semi-contradictory statements from his past positions, Ricketts coyly admits that the way he purchased the team from the Tribune has been a factor for current revenue squeeze.

In viewing the Class A Florida State League playoffs, Ricketts does not see much for next year’s Cubs — who don’t appear poised for any kind of quantum leap toward the top of the National League Central, even with a modest influx of major-league talent this offseason.

Ricketts told the Sun Times that no splashy, expensive moves to reverse four consecutive years of losing on the field and at the gate. And he made no assurances that the third-highest ticket prices in the sport would get ­reduced for next season.

And while he acknowledged the team’s lingering purchase debt is a factor in spending ability, he said it’s “a lot less than you think,” and he said baseball budgets set by ownership isn’t holding back anything team president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer are trying to do with the club.
“I know it’s not a money issue,’’ Ricketts said of the methods the baseball department is using to restock the farm system and overhaul the organization — and the consequent results at the big-league level. “You can’t just throw money at the problem. We have to build the organization from the ground up. And that’s what we’re doing right now. On the business side, we have to continue to develop more revenue lines so that we can have more financial flexibility in the future, and we’re doing that with stadium renovations and other media contracts that are coming up in the future.”

The priorities that Ricketts outlined including new outfield signage and the ­Jumbotron-like board up as soon as possible to increase the revenues, he said. He also said that the clubhouse and training facilities planned for underneath the existing clubhouse and workout room are “probably not going to” be ready for the 2014 opener as originally planned, “but it’s a priority for us.”

Ricketts doesn’t deny Wrigley Field is a revenue producer by virtue of its drawing power as a venue, nor does he deny that team debt that Forbes recently estimated at a major-league high $580 million has an impact on business operations. “Every team has some form of debt. For us, it’s a ­factor, but there’s also a lot of other factors,” Ricketts said, stating that the team has increased capital investments and increased administration costs.

The Sun Times article states that to off-set sagging attendance, the Cubs are looking to the WGN portion of the local TV rights that the club is trying to negotiate toward $1 million per game levels comparable to other recent deals by other teams.The Sun Times estimated that increase alone would make attendance drops easy to tolerate — even at internal estimates of more than $7 million per 100,000, according to the paper's sources.

“In terms of attendance, the way I look at it is we have to win,” Ricketts said. “We have to get a more exciting team. We’re not disappointed with this year’s attendance. We’ll be in the 2.7 [million] range. But obviously, it’s incumbent upon us to make sure we put a more compelling team on the field, and attendance will take care of itself.”

In response to  Sun-Times columnist Rick Morrissey’s contention this week that the Cubs, from an ownership level, weren’t trying to win, Ricketts said: “We go into every season wanting to win. But we also make personnel decisions based on what’s best for the organization over the longer term.
“The fact is, we’re doing it the right way. We have the best leaders in our baseball organization, the smartest guys. It’s one step at a time. And we’re getting better.”

Here are the key takeaways from Ricketts statements:

1.  The Cubs do not plan to make any expensive major league acquisitions or moves this off-season. Though Ricketts claims the baseball budget is planned separately, he acknowledges that he has money factors such as purchase debt, capital costs in constructing the new Wrigley real estate projects, and more "administrative" costs, i.e. more employees and staff that take a priority over the major league team roster.

2. Ricketts is desperate to increase his cash flow. He needs to get more advertising signage right away. He also needs to get a new local television contract to double those local TV revenues per game. But he may be just moving line items between accounts with no real new bottom line dollars. He has lost $28 million plus in just attendance revenue. The increase from WGN local TV revenue is limited by the number of games in the Sportschannel cable agreement, so it may just offset the lost attendance revenue.

3. Ricketts has no plans to appease his paying customers. He does not plan on lower the costs of tickets or concessions. Fans will show their displeasure by not buying tickets or coming to games. There was no viable secondary ticket market for Cubs tickets the last two years. A lost fan will find something else to do with his entertainment dollars. Attendance could go into a free fall in 2014 if the Cubs continue to field a AA/AAA team. 

4. Ricketts is now looking only towards "the long term" of his organization. But the long term plan he has is the massive real estate development project in the McDonald's block across from Wrigley Field. In addition, his long term plan is to make Wrigley into a 12 month entertainment destination place like a mini-Disneyland - - - with 365 day bars and restaurants, corporate events and other events. The Cubs are not the sole focus of the Wrigley development - -  the Cubs are merely a tenant in the grand scheme of things.

5. Ricketts claims that he has hired "the smartest guys" in run his baseball organization. Fans have been constantly told that Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer are the smartest guys in baseball. Fans only look to wins and losses, and playoffs as the measure of baseball success and good management. So far, the Cub fan base has no reason to believe that Epstein is the smartest baseball guy on the planet. The idea of a pipeline of home grown prospects as impact players at this point in time is just a pipe dream.

6. Ricketts has bought into the Epstein approach that the baseball rebuild will only be through in-house development of talent and not expensive free agent moves. This is a small market, penny pitching baseball philosophy. This approach will lose the casual baseball fan. But that may not matter if Wrigley is an entertainment complex and not just a baseball park.