November 2, 2013

STAGNATION

The Cubs had five free agents going into the off-season:

Closer Kevin Gregg, back up catcher Dioner Navarro, injured starter Scott Baker, reliever Matt Guerrier, and outfielder Ryan Sweeney.

The Cubs quickly re-signed Sweeney for two years. As stated before, this signaled that the Cubs were not going to push to upgrade their roster this off-season. After spending $86 million last off season for the likes Baker, Scott Feldman  and Edwin Jackson, the Cubs front office said that it would not be a player in the big free agent market. The Cubs still owe Alfonso Soriano $17.2 million for 2014, and Scott Hairston $500,000. That dead money makes signing impact free agents a nullity.

The franchise is in full stagnation mode. The Epstein era's win-loss record is 127-197. Epstein's manager of choice, Dale Sveum, was fired for guiding the club to back to back horrible seasons. The Cubs will soon hire their fourth manager in five seasons, prioritizing "managerial or other on-field leadership experience" and "expertise developing young talent." Hint: we are going to become leaner and cheaper through our own minor league system. This is not the light at the end of the tunnel since the Cubs have not had a .500 record since 2009.

Keeping the band together after a 96-loss season does not seem prudent, but considering The Plan is to flounder until the prospect hoard hits the majors, this is the default.

Gregg was not a happy camper at the end of the season. He feuded with Sveum. Why Gregg, who had a good first half, was not traded at the deadline, remains a mystery. He will not be back because Fujikawa appears to have been signed to be the closer in 2014.

Navarro played above expectations so he will be signed by another team, probably as a starting catcher. The Cubs want to continue to develop Wellington Castillo behind the plate. Castillo has made improvement on his defense, but injuries may be a future concern. Also, in the improving minor league system, the Cubs are devoid of any true catching prospects.

Baker got paid $5.5 million to rehab for an entire season. His three starts and 15 innings pitched were a mere showcase for him to sign a lucrative deal elsewhere. The Cubs will say they gambled and lost on Baker, as they would say they found gold with Feldman (and traded him for two arms). Baker will sign with another team for a good three year, above market deal because starting pitching is still a premium for clubs on the cusp of the playoffs.

Guerrier was at the end of his career when he was shipped instead of a bag of used baseballs to the Cubs in the Carlos Marmol deal. New pick ups like Arrieta or Grimm can easily take his spot in the bullpen.

Basically, the Cubs will stand pat with the talent they have going into 2014. They only change would be if they again trade off veteran talent like Jeff Samardzija for more prospects or major league ready AAA players. As it stands now, the team will continue to stagnate at the bottom of the NL Central.