As the Tanaka sweepstakes comes to an end, there is a question for many teams, including the Cubs who will not be in contention for several more years: is it better to wait?
Proven commodities in the pitching department are gold mines. The Cubs won't have their vaulted prospects ready until 2016 at the earliest. The Cubs continue to trim payroll. The front office won't spend in the free agent market until the team is ready to win the division.
So, instead of getting an unproven player in Tanaka, it is probably better to wait for a proven major league starter to come to market.
Case in point, David Price. He will hit he free agent market in 2016. This year he will make $14 million for the Rays. He will also be on the trade block within a year.
Price has been dominate at times. His 6 year career record is 71-39, 3.19 ERA, 1.158 WHIP. His career WAR is 18.6 (2013 was 2.8; 2012 it was 6.9). His average WAR is 3.1.
If you use $5.5 million value per WAR, then Price's current value is $17.05 million per season. By the time he reaches free agency, he will be commanding $20 million/year. This is the same amount of money in the current Tanaka rumors.
The Cubs could wait two years, save $40 million, and attempt to sign a player like Price when the team was truly ready to compete for the divisional crown.
