Despite the statistical fact that most minor league prospects do not make it to the major leagues, Cubs and their fans continue to march down the untraveled road that the Cub stockpile of minor league talent will be paved with gold. But to put it into perspective, and assuming the Cubs know and can develop talent at double the actual statistical rate of success, it still would mean only 1 player from each affiliate would make it to the majors with any sort of impact (2.0 WAR/starter role).
For example, off the Iowa roster, pick one who will succeed:
Watkins, 2b
Olt, 3b
Nelson, 1b
Ha, cf
Grimm, sp
Hendricks, sp
From Tennessee, pick one:
Alcantara, ss
Villaneuva, 3b
Baez, ss
Jokisch, sp
Cabrera, sp
Batista, rp
From Daytona, pick one:
Soler, rf
Vogelbach, qb
Bryant, 3b
Wells, sp
Black, sp
Cates, sp
From Kane County, pick one:
Candelario, 3b
Amaya, 2b
Almora, cf
Johnson, sp
Zastryzny, sp
Scott, sp
From Boise, pick one:
Rogers, 3b
Dunston, cf
Encarnacion, of
Pugliese, sp
Underwood, sp
Blackburn, sp
If you had to guess on who had the most upside in each list, Hendricks, Baez, Bryant, Almora, and Underwood. That is six players contributing possibly in the next four seasons. That is only a quarter of the major league roster. That is why the road to the majors is not paved with gold, but speed bumps and pot holes.
