June 6, 2014

DAY ONE DRAFT NOTES

It seems the White Sox got the best player in the draft.

Carlos Rodon was projected as a #1 pick. No one thought he would get past the Marlins picking at #2. But Rodon fell the White Sox, without blinking an eye, selected the college left hander.

Rodon went 6-7 for the NC State Wolfpack in 14 starts this season, but that hardly told the story. He delivered a 2.01 ERA over 98⅔ innings, with three complete games. Rodon struck out 117 batters and gave up just two home runs. With 31 walks, he had nearly four strikeouts for every one base on balls. In his career at NC State, he won 25 games and had a 2.24 ERA.

Draft expert Keith Law’s take: When Rodon is at his best, his fastball sits in the low-to-mid 90s and occasionally reaches 96-97 mph. He didn't throw his heater as much as some scouts would have liked during the 2012 season, but it's a plus offering that he can throw by hitters who choose to wait on his slider. The pitch is all the more effective because of his slider, which is the best breaking ball of any pitcher in this year's class. It sits in the mid 80s with ridiculous movement that will give both left- and right-handed hitters fits thanks to its bite and tilt.

Rodon will be on a fast track to the majors. He could join a dominate and unique left handed starting rotation with the White Sox: Chris Sale, Carlos Quintana and John Danks.

The White Sox followed up on pitching depth by selecting with their second pick, #44 overall, right-hander Spencer Adams, from White County High School in Georgia.

The 6-foot-4, 180-pound Adams -- taken 44th overall -- has a fastball in the low 90-mph range with a slider and a changeup. He has a three-quarters delivery and projects as a middle-of-the-rotation starter.

The Cubs picked on slot after the White Sox in each round.

The Cubs surprised the media draft experts by selecting Chris Schwarber, a catcher-outfielder from Indiana University. Schwarber hit 18 home runs in 2013 then followed that up with 14 in 2014 while hitting .358. His on-base percentage rose in each of his three years at Indiana, landing at .464 his junior season. He walked 44 times while striking out 30 his final year at Indiana. He registered a .992 fielding percentage and threw out 16 of 43 runners this past season.

Schwarber was a second-team all-state linebacker his senior year in high school in Ohio. and led the Greater Miami conference in hitting with a .474 batting average. However, many scouts question whether Schwarber will stay at catcher. He stands 6 feet tall, 240 pounds. Some project him as a first baseman. Other scouts believe his best position may be designated hitter. The Cubs already have their long term 1B in Rizzo and don't play with the DH.

Keith Law’s take: In a draft light on power-hitting bats -- particularly in terms of college prospects -- Schwarber might have the most raw power of any prospect in the class, showing plus-plus power to right field thanks to tremendous lower-body strength and strong wrists. He transfers his weight well and has the type of raw power that could produce 30-plus homer seasons if he's able to play every day. He shows good feel at the plate, and a willingness to work pitches and get on base via walk, but doesn't have elite bat speed, and there's a lot of swing-and-miss in his bat as well.

“We feel he’s a really good, underrated athlete that could certainly move to an outfield position, in the corner,” Cubs director of scouting Jason McLeod said. “His bat is obviously why we drafted him.” The Cubs believe he had the best bat in the draft so that was the reason for taking him. He could follow the path set by last year's big bat selection, Kris Bryant, who were both were college juniors when drafted. That means time at rookie ball as well as Class-A later this summer. ESPN thinks it is determined if he’ll play outfield or catcher, though the Cubs need players at both positions.

But other scouts have concerns. The scouting community is in a quandary over what to make of Schwarber. He has no natural position, as he's too slow for the outfield and lacks the defensive chops to be a catcher. Many believe first base or designated hitter may be his eventual home.


With their second-round pick -- the Cubs took right-handed pitcher Jake Stinnett from the University of Maryland.

As a senior he’s 7-6 with a 2.65 ERA in 15 starts. He gave up 70 hits in 112 innings pitched while striking out 130. Stinnett was drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 29th round last year but chose to return to school and led the Terrapins to the NCAA super regionals.  Stinnett is listed at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds from Vista, California. Scouting reports say he needed his four years at Maryland, because he has been a full-time pitcher for only two seasons after being converted from third base.

He had an impressive game against Rodon and NC State this year. However, scouts recognized that his frame and side arm delivery was about his ceiling as a #4 starter in the majors. He has a low to mid 90s fastball and good slider, but needs a change up to make it in the pros.

Prior to the draft, I indicated that the Cubs drafting college players would be a signal that management is trying to move up the prospect-rebuild of the major league roster. The reason is obvious: the Cubs tanking seasons is driving away fan interest, including the hype of tracking prospects in the low minors. The two touted pitchers, CJ Edwards and Pierce Johnson, have had set backs this season. The Cubs need to push fresh young talent to the majors at an accelerated level, like the Cardinals have done since their 2011 draft.