June 26, 2014

STANDING PAT

There is an argument to be made that the Cubs should not be a Seller in this year's free agent market.

If Epstein and Hoyer are confident in their talent as player evaluators, then 2015 is the pivotal season to put up or shut up. There have been 20, 30 and 40 year season ticket holders who cancelled their packages this season. None will return unless the Cubs field a real team. If the plan is to wait until 2020, then you will probably lose a majority of the fan base by then. The Cubs would then be worse off than the White Sox in this town.

If you stand pat on not trading away the present for the hope of the future, and promote the prospects which appear ready, then the 2015 team looks like this:

1. Alcantara 2b
2. Castro ss
3. Rizzo 1b
4. Bryant 3b
5. Baez lf
6. Castillo c
7. Lake/Sweeney cf
8. Ruggiano rf

However, if the Cubs were actual buyers in the off-season free agent market, and get a center and right fielder, the starting lineup is solidified.

The same holds true with the starting pitchers.

1. Samardzija
2. Arrieta
3. T. Wood
4. E. Jackson
5. Wada/Hendricks

The starting rotation would be about the same as this season, which has not been as bad as expected when you take out the E. Jax meltdown games.

So when we were told five years ago the Cubs were only "two players" away from a championship caliber team, the team is still not there, yet. But it is only two or three players away from fielding a competitive team in 2015.

But it takes two real tough decisions by the front office:

1. Promote everyone within striking range of the majors.
2. Spend money on several free agents this off season.

The current consensus is that ownership will not allow decision number two. And as a result, the baseball ops guys won't pull the trigger on their prospects for fear that they will have a hard time without quality veteran support.