April 8, 2015

THE DOUBLE LEAD OFF HITTER THEORY

Joe Maddon took a page out of the Tony LaRussa book when Maddon batted Jon Lester No. 8.

Little did Cub fans know how bad Lester is at the plate (0 for life).

Second baseman Tommy LaStella batted 9th.

It was explained after the game that putting LaStella in the 9th spot adds "a second lead off hitter" to the line up.

When LaRussa first used this gimmick, the Cardinals’ scoring ticked up slightly but  La Russa got more impact as the seasons wore on, when he switched from No. 9 guys like Eli Marrero in 1998 to more leadoff-type players such as Aaron Miles, Tyler Green and Nick Punto.

In theory, this lineup puts the pitcher the furthest possible distance from the No. 3 hitter in the order (considering both directions), and turns the 3 hitter into a cleanup man once the lineup turns over and the 2 hitter into a 3 hitter.

“It’s not your daddy’s 2 hole,” says Maddon, who is intrigued by Soler’s power and pitch selection in that sequence. However, it is still to be seen if Soler has the plate discipline to be a number two hitter. He has tremendous power. Whether he can consistently change his approach from home run torque swing to shortened opposite field swing is going to take time to tell.

“Sometimes the double switch becomes a problem because it’s one hitter sooner, but overall [it's comparable],” La Russa said, adding that communication is key – especially for the hitters who now get stuck behind pitchers. “You always have to explain to the team why you’re doing it. And Joe is very articulate, very knowledgeable.”

Maddon plans to use  La Stella, Arismendy Alcantara and possibly Chris Coghlan at No. 9, and he already has met with La Stella and Alcanatara to explain the thinking.

“You have to deliver the correct message,” Maddon said. “I told them exactly why we’re doing it. This is not a slight on your hitting whatsoever. Actually, for me, you’re going to get better pitches by hitting in this sport, so I’m really going to take advantage of your abilities by hitting you here.

“There’s a lot of stigma of playing the fat kid in right field and hitting your worst hitter ninth that has to be overcome. You want to break it down. It deserves explanation.”

Maddon is quick to say: “I’m not here to say I know everything by any stretch of the imagination.”

In the Cubs pitching staff, Travis Wood is probably the best hitter (having hit two home runs this spring). He would probably be better slotted in the 7th slot, dropping weaker hitters like LaStella, Coghlan or Olt to the bottom.

Traditionally, the pitcher batting 9th was used to create "productive" outs. Pitchers were supposed to learn the art of bunting to move a player to second base, giving a runner in scoring position for your "best" contact hitters at the top of the order. A runner at second with one out with the lead off hitter up means more pressure on the pitcher and his defense. Even with two outs and a runner at second, the lead off hitter should be trained to take pitches to get a walk or slap hit a single since the runner will be off on contact and probably could score. So when the reasoning is that batting pitchers in the 8th spot will create "more" scoring opportunities, that is not necessarily the case.

With the Cubs, if you keep the pitcher in the 9th slot, and the catcher batting 8th, it gives Maddon more opportunities to double switch or flip those batting orders, maximizing the time before a pitcher would hit again.

Each team's lineup has its strengths and weaknesses. A manager needs to understand those strengths and weaknesses in order to give each player the best opportunity to succeed at the plate (i.e. get on base or drive in runs).

In descending order of value as a lead off hitter: Fowler, LaStella, Coghlan.
High priority strike out or weak hitters: Olt, pitchers, Ross, Castillo, Alcantara, Rizzo, Soler.

One does not want to concentrate one type of negative hitter in lineup blocks.

Maddon also said he would probably not use Pitcher in No. 8 spot if he felt the starter was going to go long into the game. Lester was on a pitch count on Opening Night and was destined to pitch only 6 innings or less (he went 4 2/3).

The knock on using gimmick lineups is that it changes the daily hitting card. Many players believe in habit and set structure as they prepare for a game. Not knowing whether you will be hitting No. 2, No. 7 or No. 9 on any given day disrupts a player's preparation (since each slot in the order infers a different batting style or purpose in game situations).

I was never a fan of Lou Piniella's daily tinkering of his lineup card. But some modern managers just think it is about the only tangible thing they do during a game, so they have to mix things up.