April 8, 2015

ONE DAY IN, TRADE RUMOR

After nearly stealing one of the game's best closers, the San Diego Padres continue to hunt for talent to upgrade their roster.  SB Nation opines that the Padres are on the hunt for a shortstop, and those lens sights squarely fall on the Cubs.

The Padres drafted Trea Turner in 2014. Turner led NCAA Division I with 57 steals as a freshman, helped North Carolina State to its first College World Series berth in 45 years as a sophomore and became the highest-drafted position player in Wolfpack history as a junior in 2014. Selected 14th overall and signed for $2.9 million, he played well in his pro debut and in the Arizona Fall League. He won't reach the Majors with the Padres, however, because it's an open secret he's headed to the Nationals in June as the player to be named later in the three-team trade that brought Wil Myers to San Diego.


The Padres have been super-aggressive this year, acquiring  Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Justin Upton, Derek Norris, Will Middlebrooks and Craig Kimbrel (as well as signing James Shields), Padres' general manager A.J. Preller is not satisfied and wants to upgrade shortstop.

The Cubs have a surplus of shortstop talent: Castro, Baez, Alcantara, Russell.

SB thinks three alternatives are contract year players Ian Desmond and Jimmy Rollins, or Elvis Andrus who is owed $120 million over the next eight seasons. 

 Castro is available with his team friendly $43 million deal. The question is whether the Padres have enough left to get Castro.

SB thinks the past relationship of the Cubs front office could be the back door to make a deal. , Cubs' GM Jed Hoyer traded for Padres' pitcher Casey Kelly (#10 Padre Prospect), and Hoyer, assistant GM Jason McLeod, and Cubs' president Theo Epstein were working for the Red Sox when Kelly was drafted. Their love for catchers who frame well is known, so maybe top prospect Austin Hedges (#2 Padre prospect) would be of interest. However, in Chicago we know that the Cubs are extremely high on catcher Kyle Schwarber. So catching is not a priority.

The Cubs, like most teams, need young pitching depth. Also, the Cubs could upgrade second and third base (if Kris Bryant is destined for LF). Zech Lemond (#11 Padre prospect) is a college reliever being converted to a starter but who may wind up as a back of the bullpen guy.  Lemond set a Rice record with 14 saves as sophomore, eclipsing future big leaguers David Aardsma and Tony Cingrani, then moved into the Owls' rotation early last spring. He missed time with elbow inflammation yet showed enough to get drafted in the third round and earn a $600,000 bonus. He was fully healthy after signing and made a scoreless four-inning cameo at the end of his pro debut.

Lemond maintained his stuff while moving from reliever to starter, beginning with a 92-96 mph fastball with armside run and downhill plane. He throws a spike curveball that can reach 85 mph and confound hitters, though it can be tough to command and San Diego curtailed his use of it last summer. He also has a fading change-up.He fills the strike zone and works with an efficient delivery, giving Lemond a good chance to remain a starter. He's not very physical, so he'll have to prove he's durable enough. If not, he could be a dynamic late-inning reliever.

The other pitching prospect is Tayron Guerrero (#12 Padres prospect) who reminds me of CJ Edwards.  Guerrero was a skinny 170-pounder who threw 85 mph when the Padres signed him out of Colombia in 2009. Forty pounds and six years later, he's capable of reaching triple digits in his fastball. He had a breakout season in 2014, highlighted by a strikeout of Peter O'Brien on a 97-mph heater in the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game.

Guerrero generates a 94-98 mph fastballs on a regular basis without expending much effort in his delivery. His heater doesn't feature a lot of life, but its sheer velocity and his ability to use his 6-foot-7 frame to launch it on a steep downhill plane make it tough to catch up to. His low-80s slider shows signs of giving him a second plus pitch and his makeup earns high praise as well.

The key to Guerrero's future will be his ability to throw quality strikes. He walked 3.6 batters per nine innings last year, less than half his rate (7.4) from his first four pro seasons. He's still learning to keep his big body under control, and if he figures it out he could be a closer.

To trade an All-Star shortstop in Castro for two or three pitching prospects who project as relievers does not seem to be a valuable trade for the Cubs. To trade Castro now, the Cubs should get a major league ready player in return.