June 6, 2016

RAISE SHIELDS

 UPDATE: (6/9/16): The White Sox have been looking to replace John Danks. Little did they know that James Shields is the right handed version of Danks.

Shields White Sox debut against the Nationals was a boo-fest. He gave up three home runs, 7 earned runs in only 2 + innings of work. Of his 84 pitches, only 44 were for strikes. This came after a 10-run disaster in a Padre uniform.

In the pregame, Steve Stone only said that Shields had to throw quality starts and eat up innings to save the bullpen. He said Shields has had quality starts in 8 of his 11 previous outings. In his career, he averages 31 starts and 200 IP. He is durable. He is a professional.

But he is suddenly really bad. Down 4-0 in the top of the first against the Nationals ace pitcher was an early death knell for the Sox.

The problem with Shields start was that he was low. His change and slider were coming up short to the plate. Now, it was reported that his velocity was down from last year. If he was shorting his pitches to the plate, there may be more than just a mechanical issue wrong with him. Considering that the White Sox did not give up much for Shields in the trade, there will be suspicions based on his Sox debut.

On the flip side, the Nats did not go fishing for any pitches in the dirt. They waited on a fastball in the zone to crush it. 

The bad start still does not erase the real problem with the Sox: offense. The drought continues to put more stress on the White Sox starters to pitch nearly perfect games.

The White Sox may have a had a concern about the #4 and #5 starters in the rotation, but the real problem for the team during this long losing streak where the team is now only 1 game over .500 from its first place perch of 12 games over is offense, hitting.

So the trade for Padres pitcher James Shields was not expected as a priority. It is more a defensive move to keep the critics at bay with a "big" trade while the Sox try to figure out their offensive woes.

Consider that Shields is 34 years old and on the decline of his career bell curve. Reports a few weeks ago indicated that he wanted to stay and pitch for the losing Padres. Some consider that a selfish move by a player who does not want to be on a competing team in a pennant race.  Maybe he likes the San Diego laid-back beach culture. Now, he travels to Chicago to board a sinking ship.

But he was publicly called out by the Padre owner who was frustrated by the horrible play of his team. This has started the fire sale by the Padres.

Shields, pitching in the friendly home ball park, is 2-7, 4.28 ERA and 1.426 WHIP.  He is the midst of his worst season. He is the first year of a big contract ($65 million with a 2016 opt out).  The White Sox traded starter Erik Johnson, who had his chance at the rotation but failed, and a young shortstop prospect in Fernando Tatis, Jr. The Sox only pick up $27 million of Shield's deal so it was an affordable trade.

If the White Sox wanted to pick up the whole nut, the Padres reportedly would have added Jon Jay to the deal. Jay is the ex-Cardinal outfielder who in 55 games (238 AB) is hitting .299, 2 HT, 18 RBI with an oWAR 1.4. He is a left handed bat that the Sox are seeking to fill out the line up. He is in the last season of a contract at $6.85 million.

Using the LaRoche money savings, the Sox still have $8 million to find a bat to help the offense. But time is running out on the White Sox and manager Robin Ventura.

Giving Ventura Shields to bolster the rotation is fine, but it does not solve the lack of run support. When pitchers Chris Sale and Jose Quintana start going back to the mean and giving up three runs in starts, the White Sox struggle to over come it. Ventura's managerial record is poor and his decision making has been questioned by local media. But ownership is loyal to its people so Ventura will ride out the season, for good or ill.

But it would be a huge black mark for the organization which had "won" the last two off-seasons with its roster moves. The White Sox did not give up much for Shields. It kept its best pitching and position prospects.

The 26-year-old Johnson, who’s the more established player the Padres got for Shields, could figure into their rotation at some point. Johnson has posted a 4.50 ERA, 7.1 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 across 98 major league innings. In a 523 2/3-frame minor league sample size, Johnson’s strikeout rate (7.8) hasn’t looked much different, though he has walked fewer batters (3.1) with a 3.23 ERA.

Tatis, meanwhile, signed with the White Sox for $700K as a 16-year-old last summer. The Dominican native is the son of former big leaguer Fernando Tatis, and Baseball America wrote at the time of his signing that the 6-foot-1, 175-pounder pairs power potential on offense with a good arm on defense. Tatis, therefore, could potentially serve as a third baseman or outfielder in the majors.