A BREACH OF TRUST

A good general manager is a man of his word. Very few succeed by trying to rip off another club in a trade. Trades are supposed to be made for the mutual benefit of both sides.

So when MLB suspended the Padres GM for serious breach of protocol, it was a surprise.

San Diego Padres general manager A.J. Preller was suspended Thursday for 30 games without pay by Major League Baseball, hours after news hit that the Padres allegedly withheld player health information in hopes of getting the upper hand in trade discussions.

ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote that the Padres allegedly built a special database to document player health details while skirting MLB’s rules about injury information. In essence, the Padres kept two sets of records: One that was incomplete and shared with other teams and another that was complete and kept in-house.

The Padres were called into question because of their July trades with the Boston Red Sox and Miami Marlins, which according to Olney, left teams thinking the Padres were using “strategic deception.”
In its announcement of Preller’s punishment, MLB didn’t comment on the specifics of its probe, saying only:

Major League Baseball has completed an investigation into the July 14th transaction in which pitcher Drew Pomeranz was traded from the San Diego Padres to the Boston Red Sox. MLB’s Department of Investigations conducted the thorough review, which included interviews with relevant individuals from both Clubs. The findings were submitted to Commissioner Robert D. Manfred, Jr.

As a result of this matter, Major League Baseball announced today that A.J. Preller, Executive Vice President and General Manager of the Padres, has received a 30-day suspension without pay.

MLB considers the matter closed and will have no further comment.

Olney said at least three teams complained about the Padres to MLB.

Major League Baseball has a central database for player health information, where teams are supposed to keep their notes on injuries. In the event of a trade, doctors for each team trade codes and look at player notes. According to Olney, the Padres started keeping all the important notes in their separate database this year.

At the trade deadline, the Padres traded Drew Pomeranz the Red Sox and Andrew Cashner and Colin Read to the Marlins. Rea was hurt in his first start with the Marlins and in a highly unusual move, he was returned to the Padres The Red Sox were angered when they learned about preventative treatment Pomeranz was going through that wasn’t in his Padres notes.

In decades past, trades between teams were always "buyer beware." Each team had the responsibility to conduct a medical evaluation on a player before agreeing with a deal. MLB has streamlined the medical records process to help trade and free agent market evaluations.

The Padres intentionally deceived the other clubs by not putting in medical treatment into the central data base. It calls into question the trustworthiness of the San Diego organization in future team transactions. 

RAISE SHIELDS

 UPDATE: (6/9/16): The White Sox have been looking to replace John Danks. Little did they know that James Shields is the right handed version of Danks.

Shields White Sox debut against the Nationals was a boo-fest. He gave up three home runs, 7 earned runs in only 2 + innings of work. Of his 84 pitches, only 44 were for strikes. This came after a 10-run disaster in a Padre uniform.

In the pregame, Steve Stone only said that Shields had to throw quality starts and eat up innings to save the bullpen. He said Shields has had quality starts in 8 of his 11 previous outings. In his career, he averages 31 starts and 200 IP. He is durable. He is a professional.

But he is suddenly really bad. Down 4-0 in the top of the first against the Nationals ace pitcher was an early death knell for the Sox.

The problem with Shields start was that he was low. His change and slider were coming up short to the plate. Now, it was reported that his velocity was down from last year. If he was shorting his pitches to the plate, there may be more than just a mechanical issue wrong with him. Considering that the White Sox did not give up much for Shields in the trade, there will be suspicions based on his Sox debut.

On the flip side, the Nats did not go fishing for any pitches in the dirt. They waited on a fastball in the zone to crush it. 

The bad start still does not erase the real problem with the Sox: offense. The drought continues to put more stress on the White Sox starters to pitch nearly perfect games.

The White Sox may have a had a concern about the #4 and #5 starters in the rotation, but the real problem for the team during this long losing streak where the team is now only 1 game over .500 from its first place perch of 12 games over is offense, hitting.

So the trade for Padres pitcher James Shields was not expected as a priority. It is more a defensive move to keep the critics at bay with a "big" trade while the Sox try to figure out their offensive woes.

Consider that Shields is 34 years old and on the decline of his career bell curve. Reports a few weeks ago indicated that he wanted to stay and pitch for the losing Padres. Some consider that a selfish move by a player who does not want to be on a competing team in a pennant race.  Maybe he likes the San Diego laid-back beach culture. Now, he travels to Chicago to board a sinking ship.

But he was publicly called out by the Padre owner who was frustrated by the horrible play of his team. This has started the fire sale by the Padres.

Shields, pitching in the friendly home ball park, is 2-7, 4.28 ERA and 1.426 WHIP.  He is the midst of his worst season. He is the first year of a big contract ($65 million with a 2016 opt out).  The White Sox traded starter Erik Johnson, who had his chance at the rotation but failed, and a young shortstop prospect in Fernando Tatis, Jr. The Sox only pick up $27 million of Shield's deal so it was an affordable trade.

If the White Sox wanted to pick up the whole nut, the Padres reportedly would have added Jon Jay to the deal. Jay is the ex-Cardinal outfielder who in 55 games (238 AB) is hitting .299, 2 HT, 18 RBI with an oWAR 1.4. He is a left handed bat that the Sox are seeking to fill out the line up. He is in the last season of a contract at $6.85 million.

Using the LaRoche money savings, the Sox still have $8 million to find a bat to help the offense. But time is running out on the White Sox and manager Robin Ventura.

Giving Ventura Shields to bolster the rotation is fine, but it does not solve the lack of run support. When pitchers Chris Sale and Jose Quintana start going back to the mean and giving up three runs in starts, the White Sox struggle to over come it. Ventura's managerial record is poor and his decision making has been questioned by local media. But ownership is loyal to its people so Ventura will ride out the season, for good or ill.

But it would be a huge black mark for the organization which had "won" the last two off-seasons with its roster moves. The White Sox did not give up much for Shields. It kept its best pitching and position prospects.

The 26-year-old Johnson, who’s the more established player the Padres got for Shields, could figure into their rotation at some point. Johnson has posted a 4.50 ERA, 7.1 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 across 98 major league innings. In a 523 2/3-frame minor league sample size, Johnson’s strikeout rate (7.8) hasn’t looked much different, though he has walked fewer batters (3.1) with a 3.23 ERA.

Tatis, meanwhile, signed with the White Sox for $700K as a 16-year-old last summer. The Dominican native is the son of former big leaguer Fernando Tatis, and Baseball America wrote at the time of his signing that the 6-foot-1, 175-pounder pairs power potential on offense with a good arm on defense. Tatis, therefore, could potentially serve as a third baseman or outfielder in the majors.

ONE DAY IN, TRADE RUMOR

After nearly stealing one of the game's best closers, the San Diego Padres continue to hunt for talent to upgrade their roster.  SB Nation opines that the Padres are on the hunt for a shortstop, and those lens sights squarely fall on the Cubs.

The Padres drafted Trea Turner in 2014. Turner led NCAA Division I with 57 steals as a freshman, helped North Carolina State to its first College World Series berth in 45 years as a sophomore and became the highest-drafted position player in Wolfpack history as a junior in 2014. Selected 14th overall and signed for $2.9 million, he played well in his pro debut and in the Arizona Fall League. He won't reach the Majors with the Padres, however, because it's an open secret he's headed to the Nationals in June as the player to be named later in the three-team trade that brought Wil Myers to San Diego.

The Padres have been super-aggressive this year, acquiring  Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Justin Upton, Derek Norris, Will Middlebrooks and Craig Kimbrel (as well as signing James Shields), Padres' general manager A.J. Preller is not satisfied and wants to upgrade shortstop.

The Cubs have a surplus of shortstop talent: Castro, Baez, Alcantara, Russell.

SB thinks three alternatives are contract year players Ian Desmond and Jimmy Rollins, or Elvis Andrus who is owed $120 million over the next eight seasons. 

 Castro is available with his team friendly $43 million deal. The question is whether the Padres have enough left to get Castro.

SB thinks the past relationship of the Cubs front office could be the back door to make a deal. , Cubs' GM Jed Hoyer traded for Padres' pitcher Casey Kelly (#10 Padre Prospect), and Hoyer, assistant GM Jason McLeod, and Cubs' president Theo Epstein were working for the Red Sox when Kelly was drafted. Their love for catchers who frame well is known, so maybe top prospect Austin Hedges (#2 Padre prospect) would be of interest. However, in Chicago we know that the Cubs are extremely high on catcher Kyle Schwarber. So catching is not a priority.

The Cubs, like most teams, need young pitching depth. Also, the Cubs could upgrade second and third base (if Kris Bryant is destined for LF). Zech Lemond (#11 Padre prospect) is a college reliever being converted to a starter but who may wind up as a back of the bullpen guy.  Lemond set a Rice record with 14 saves as sophomore, eclipsing future big leaguers David Aardsma and Tony Cingrani, then moved into the Owls' rotation early last spring. He missed time with elbow inflammation yet showed enough to get drafted in the third round and earn a $600,000 bonus. He was fully healthy after signing and made a scoreless four-inning cameo at the end of his pro debut.

Lemond maintained his stuff while moving from reliever to starter, beginning with a 92-96 mph fastball with armside run and downhill plane. He throws a spike curveball that can reach 85 mph and confound hitters, though it can be tough to command and San Diego curtailed his use of it last summer. He also has a fading change-up.He fills the strike zone and works with an efficient delivery, giving Lemond a good chance to remain a starter. He's not very physical, so he'll have to prove he's durable enough. If not, he could be a dynamic late-inning reliever.

The other pitching prospect is Tayron Guerrero (#12 Padres prospect) who reminds me of CJ Edwards.  Guerrero was a skinny 170-pounder who threw 85 mph when the Padres signed him out of Colombia in 2009. Forty pounds and six years later, he's capable of reaching triple digits in his fastball. He had a breakout season in 2014, highlighted by a strikeout of Peter O'Brien on a 97-mph heater in the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game.

Guerrero generates a 94-98 mph fastballs on a regular basis without expending much effort in his delivery. His heater doesn't feature a lot of life, but its sheer velocity and his ability to use his 6-foot-7 frame to launch it on a steep downhill plane make it tough to catch up to. His low-80s slider shows signs of giving him a second plus pitch and his makeup earns high praise as well.

The key to Guerrero's future will be his ability to throw quality strikes. He walked 3.6 batters per nine innings last year, less than half his rate (7.4) from his first four pro seasons. He's still learning to keep his big body under control, and if he figures it out he could be a closer.

To trade an All-Star shortstop in Castro for two or three pitching prospects who project as relievers does not seem to be a valuable trade for the Cubs. To trade Castro now, the Cubs should get a major league ready player in return.

A BRAVE NEW WORLD

The biggest story of Opening Night was along the scroll bar.

The Padres made another blockbuster move.

New Friar general manager A.J. Preller acquired closer Craig Kimbrel, and OF  Melvin Upton from the fire sale Braves.

The Braves acquired veteran outfielders Cameron Maybin and Carlos Quentin,  pitching prospect Matt Wisler, outfielder Jordan Paroubeck and the 41st pick in the upcoming draft.
 

YahooSports reports that with Kimbrel, the Padres acquire arguably the most dominant reliever in the game over the past five seasons. The 26-year-old is coming off a season in which he posted a 1.61 ERA over 61 2/3 innings. He saved 47 games and struck out 97 batters. Kimbrel is under contract for at least the next three seasons. He's guaranteed $33 million over that period. Kimbrel also has a $13 million club option for 2018.

For Preller and the Padres, the move doubles-down on the all-in philosophy of the offseason. Kimbrel should combine with Joaquin Benoit, Kevin Quackenbush and Shawn Kelly to wreck havoc on opposing hitters in the late innings. 

The 30-year-old Upton has not performed well in Atlanta, and the move is perceived as a salary dump for the Braves. Upton hit just .208/287/.333 last season, and is still owed $46.35 million over the next three seasons. He'll likely be a fourth outfielder with San Diego.

On the Braves side, both Quentin and Maybin should provide outfield depth. Quentin isn't regarded as highly for his defense, and had been used at first base during camp. Freddie Freeman is firmly entrenched in that spot, so it appears as if Quentin will continue to play the outfield. It is possible that Quentin may be DFA'd.

Wisler, 22, rated as the top prospect in San Diego's system, according to Baseball America. His stats in the minors have been strong up until he was promoted to Triple-A last season. He considered relatively close to major-league ready, and profiles as a No. 3 starter, according to BA. 

Paroubeck was considered a minor-league sleeper to watch by Baseball America, but did not rank among the Padres' top-30 prospects. After being selected in the second round of the 2013 draft, Paraoubeck hit .286/.346/.457 over 157 plate appearances in rookie ball. He's just 20, and remains a few seasons away from the majors.

The Padres have been the most aggressive team this off season. Last year, Oakland's Billy Beane sold the future for a run at the present, and lost that bet. It should be an interesting year in the NL West.

PADRES ON THE MOVE

By nearly all national media accounts, the Padres had a great off-season, now capped by the relatively inexpensive signing of ace starter James Shields for $75 million.

For the Padres, landing Shields — who averaged 233 innings and a 124 ERA+ over the last four years — is the icing on top of a spectacular offseason that saw them upgrade their lineup via trades for outfielders Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and Wil Myers, infielder Will Middlebrooks and catcher Derek Norris.

 With Shields in place, the Padres, whose pitchers already have the advantage of one of the most extreme pitchers' parks in baseball, have a strong top four in their rotation. Shields slots in as the veteran ace, late-bloomer Tyson Ross (an All-Star in 2014 at the age of 27) lands the 1A position, hard-throwing Andrew Cashner takes the No. 3 spot, and 30-year-old Ian Kennedy, who has averaged 201 innings per season with a league-average ERA+ over the last five years, is the way down in the fourth slot. The last starter will come from additions Brandon Morrow or Brandon Mauer (who may start in AAA), or Cuban Odrisamer Despaigne or lefty Robbie Erlin.

San Diego has turned more than over half of their fielders and quickly re-tooled twenty percent of their rotation.

New GM AJ Pellier has decided that he was going to make his mark quickly. The Padres are a small market team that needs to win in order to draw fan support. San Diego proper is an expensive place to live, and contains a transient military-navy population. Adding familiar names like Shields, Kemp and Upton are bound to make the ticket office and public relations easier this season. Fans are excited by the prospect of having a winning team in a very competitive NL West.

The only down side of the moves is that a few of the new acquisitions, Myers and Middlebrooks, seemed to fail at their potential in their last stops. Kemp and Morrow are injury prone players. So it possible that despite all the good moves, bad luck could shut down the season quickly.

However, fans will respect the aggressive behavior of the new general manager.

FIRE SALE BUYERS

This off-season has been puzzling and strange.

Why is Oakland and Atlanta conducting massive fire sales?

Why is San Diego of all clubs, an aggressive buyer?

The whirlwind of transactions for the Padres under new hyper-aggressive GM A.J. Preller. Te Padres made their acquisition of Matt Kemp official (after review of troublesome medicals), and they’re slated to do the same with a three-team trade that will net them power hitter Wil Myers and catcher Ryan Hanigan  from the Rays. The Padres have also struck deals to acquire catcher Derek Norris from the A’s and Justin Upton from the Braves. But won’t be hanging onto Hanigan; he’s reportedly headed to the Red Sox in a swap that will bring third baseman and former hot prospect gone cold, Will Middlebrooks to San Diego.
Oakland's Billy Beane went "all in" last season to trade for veteran pitchers to win it all, and he failed. So he is backing up his truck and re-tooling his small market club.

Atlanta got rid of its old GM and the older executives seem to be content on cutting salary costs and rebuild for a playoff run in 2017, when the Braves get their new, fancy, taxpayer paid new suburban stadium.

The Padres have always been a small market club with not a strong attendance fan base. Even in the tough NL West with power money teams like the Giants and Dodgers, San Diego seems to have taken an Oakland "win now" pill.

It is interesting to note that second tier clubs have been the most aggressive in the trade market.

A WORSE TEAM

Whew, the Padres are bad.

A team is last in most offensive categories. The team batting average is hovering around a historic low of .215. There is only one real part time platoon starter in the line-up consistently, Seth Smith.
Smith is batting .285, with 11 HR and only 29 RBI.

The Padres are dead last in the NL in runs scored (291), hits (688), BA (.215), OBP (.274), SLG (.355), OPS (.609) and total bases (1075).

But the Pads are 3rd in the NL West because of pitching.

The Padres rank first in the NL in team ERA (3.18), runs allowed (341) and earned runs allowed (311).

The Padres play in a pitcher friendly ball park, but still, even a below average offense would dramatically improve their 43-56 record (.434 winning percentage).

The difference between runs scored and runs allowed is -50, and over 99 games a half a run per game.

ONE SLIPPED BY THE CRACKS

As teams dropped and rotated players on their protected roster prior to the Winter Meetings, there was some interest in a San Diego pitcher that may have been left unprotected by some Cub fans. However, with the move to acquire a catcher from the Royals, the Cubs 40 man roster was filled at about the time the Padres waived LHP Jose De Paula.

The Giants have claimed De Paula  off outright waivers from the Padres and added him to their 40 man roster.

In his first season at the Double-A level, De Paula posted a 3.86 ERA with 6.9 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9 across 14 starts.

It is kind of surprising that the Cubs did not put in a claim for this pitcher, considering Hoyer's knowledge of the Padre system.

HOME ADVANTAGE

There are only a few advantages a team can have during a season.

The most important is home field advantage. Every major league ball park is different. Team management needs to be aware of those ball park effects in order to maximize a team's home winning percentage since they play half of their total games at home.

For example, Petco Field in San Diego is a pitcher's park. Historically, Padre pitchers at home are 9.5% better than the league average. This season it has been 9%. The Padres are 38-22 at home (.543 winning percentage) which is better than overall record of 62-76 (.449 winning percentage). The reason is simple. It is a big ball park where fly ball pitchers do not get lit up. Pitchers don't have to be cute around the plate and pitch to contact to get outs. As a large ball park, it has wide outfield gaps where speed can turn doubles into triples. Home runs are rarer so a team needs to manufacture runs by other means.

Wrigley Field is considered a hitter's ball park. Historically, Wrigley gives a hitter a 3.5% advantage over the league ballpark average. However, this season it has jumped to 6.5%. Which is slightly strange considering the Cubs starting rotation has been pretty consistent and the wind has mostly been blowing in this year.

The Cubs have the worst home record in the majors at 27-44 (.380 winning percentage). At home, the Cubs have scored 297 runs but allowed 320, a 7.7 percent difference.

You need hitters to succeed in a hitter's ball park. But the current Cubs are woeful at the plate. The team is batting only .239 (14th in the NL), scored 533 runs (11th in the NL) and has a .303 OBP (13th in the NL).

When the new front office came to town, they stressed that they wanted patient players with high OBP. They have failed to fill a roster with those on base hitters which nullifies the impact of the team's 146 HRs (2nd in the NL). The new management team also wanted more left handed hitters on the roster. They have signed a ton of lanky left handed outfielders, but only 1, Nate Schierholtz, has hit 20 HRs. Anthony Rizzo has hit 21 in 136 games; Soriano is still 3rd on the club with 17 HRs in 93 games; and Dioner Navarro is 4th with 11 HRs in 74 games. The problem with overloading the team with left handed bats is that, as Billy Williams remarked a long time ago, Wrigley Field's power zone is left center field. Williams said he was successful at Wrigley because he had left field power. He said that left handed pull hitters do not do well at Wrigley based on the summer wind currents. This observation was born out in the mid-2000s playoff teams which were predominately right handed hitters.

In addition, the Cubs pitching staff needs to be mostly ground ball pitchers. Sinkerballers like Rick Reuschel were successful at Wrigley because it takes three ground ball singles to score a run rather than one deep fly ball. The Cubs pitching staff has no pure sinker ball pitchers. The Cubs pitchers can throw sliders, but those are not main pitches. The Cubs got caught up in power pitching - - - strike out types - - - who tend to give up the long ball more than control and sinker ball pitchers.

So the reason why the Cubs have played so poorly at Wrigley is simple: the team was constructed to fail at home. It does not have a pitching staff that gets ground balls outs. It does not have left center field power hitters in the line up. The team has no speed or high OBP for batting acumen to manufacture runs.  The Cubs will be at a home disadvantage until the team roster changes to reflect the ball park features at Wrigley (which may change again when the new scoreboards are constructed which will alter the wind currents inside the field.)

JAWS OF VICTORY

The Chicago Cubs scored more runs in the first inning than the Chicago Bears offense did on its first drive against Oakland. In competing sports casts Friday night, the Cubs onslaught meant certain victory and a permanent channel change for Chitown sports fans.

Awaking this morning, we learn that once again the Cubs snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. The Padres came back against Edwin Jackson to defeat the Cubs, 8-6. Oh, the humanity!

The Padres bullpen was solid. The Padres chipped away at the lead against Jackson and the Cub bullpen relievers James Russell and Blake Parker. The Cubs meanwhile went into offensive hibernation, scrapping only 5 hits for the rest of the game.

Good teams do not allow this to happen.

PADRE GARZA?

MLBTR cites a report by baseball writer Peter Gammons that the Padres may be interested in Cub starter Matt Garza. The rumor has the credibility because Gammons is reporting it. But it really does not make too much sense for San Diego.

The Padres are a small market team. It rarely goes for big contract free agents. Garza is in the last year of his contract. Unless the Padres think they can extend Garza with a favorable long term deal, San Diego is no position to rent a starter for half a season.

The Padres are one game over .500 for the season, but in second place in the odd NL West. The defending champion Giants and the better than expected Diamondbacks are clear favorites to separate from the pack. The Padres are not the type of team to mortgage the future for a one year shot at a division title.

The Padres have a current $65 million payroll. It is doubtful that they would want to add a top line $15 million per year starter in the mix with Garza. The current rotation is filled with ex-Chicago arms: Jason Marquis (9-2), Andrew Cashner (5-3), Clayton Richard (2-5) join Eric Stults (6-5) and Edinson Volquez (5-6). So, yes, the Padres are in the market to upgrade their rotation, but so is every other team still in contention. But the Padres would probably prefer to add a starter pitcher under their control for a few years (like the Rizzo for Cashner deal).

Gammons thinks the deal is Garza for Class AA outfielder Reymond Fuentes and two minor leaguers that Cubs GM Jed Hoyer drafted when he was with San Diego. Fuentes, 22, had a down year in 2012 at Class AA: .218 BA, 4 HR and 34 RBI. He has had a comeback 2013: .332 BA, 5 HR, 26 RBI. Fuentes is not on the Padres 40 man roster, or listed on the team's Top 20 prospects. A scouting report indicates that Fuentes is not an elite prospect.  Fuentes thin frame is like his famous cousin,  Carlos Beltran. Fuentes is a superior defender who makes great reads and uses his plus plus speed to reach even the deepest outfield gaps but has a weak throwing arm.  Fuentes has compact line-drive swing but  lacks power.

A deal to trade Garza makes sense for the Cubs who have little interest in keeping Garza after this season. Fuentes would add another outfielder to the system (who should be in Iowa/AAA for 2014) who may progress faster than Jorge Soler who is at Class A. But Fuentes projects to be a fifth outfielder/defensive replacement player.